Click to enlarge.
Just look at that stock market setting new inflation adjusted highs! It's a sight to behold! Amazing!
Oh, wait. In my nearly infinite exuberance, I appear to be using the wrong data set.
The chart above actually shows the ISM Non-manufacturing Employment Index divided by the ISM Non-manufacturing New Orders Index. What was I thinking? Sloppy, sloppy, sloppy.
Don't let it concern you that the non-manufacturing employment index is growing faster than its new orders index. I'm sure it will be totally sustainable this time! We can just extrapolate that out to infinity and call it good. No business cycle worries at all! None! Nada! ZIRP! Just keep believing in the dreams!
Dream #1: The stock market only goes up!
Dream #2: Long-term bond yields only go up (even during ZIRP)!
This is not investment advice. As always, just opinions.
Source Data:
St. Louis Fed: Custom Chart
Bonus Dreams
ReplyDeleteDream #3: Services employment only goes up.
Dream #4: Our economy is stronger now than it was before the Great Recession.
Dream #5: Can't have a recession during ZIRP.
Dream #6: If nearly everyone believes that a recession is impossible, then a recession must be impossible.
So many dreams, so little time.
Dream #7 If we increase inflation and nominal GDP via personal consumption debt, the majority will prosper.
ReplyDeleteFour more years of Goldilocks!
mab,
ReplyDeleteDream #7 If we increase inflation and nominal GDP via personal consumption debt, the majority will prosper.
The majority of Chinese will certainly prosper thanks to our enormous trade deficit! Ah, who am I kidding? You're right of course.
1. There are too many of them.
2. There are too few of us.
3. The whole @#$%ing thing isn't sustainable over the long-term.
But other than that, things are looking awesome, lol. Sigh.
Four more years of Goldilocks!
Dream #8: "Three more years of Goldilocks?"
Dream #9: Candy Mountain utopia!
That Candy Mountain song always brings a smile to my face. Guaranteed, lol. It's even better than this! And that's sayin' something!