Wednesday, January 8, 2014

The Overleveraged Cone of Shame

The following chart shows the natural log of the 1-year treasury yield. By using a natural log, constant exponential growth (or more importantly in this case, exponential decay) can be seen as a straight line.


Click to enlarge.

We're repeatedly told to brace for the rising interest rate environment. It's a sure thing! Coming any decade to a country near you! I assume that the advice is intended for the long-term, and not just some short-term unsustainable cyclical bounce. I therefore offer a two-step program to get us there.

Steps Needed

1. Get back in the cone!



2. Escape from the cone (to the upside)!


File:Kelpie wearing an Elizabethan collar.jpg (aussiegall from sydney, Australia)

How hard can it be? Do not concern yourself that we aren't making any progress towards completing the first step. The second step is bound to be easier. Once the cone goes on, how hard can it be to get the cone off and run free? There I go, thinking as a dog again. Always the optimist!

The future's so bright I gotta get coned! Yes! Genius!

As a side note, you'll be happy to know that the dog in the photo made a full recovery. I just wish the same could be said for our economy.

Once again, this is not investment advice. I'm simply suggesting that some sure things are not quite as sure as many seem to believe (whether it be getting in cones or escaping from them). But what's new?

Source Data:
St. Louis Fed: Custom Chart
at

6 comments:

  1. TJandTheBearJanuary 8, 2014 at 11:35 AM

    Seriously... how long has it been since a post hasn't had the "sarcasm" label? :-)

    ReplyDelete
  2. Stagflationary MarkJanuary 8, 2014 at 11:50 AM

    Hahaha! :)

    In hindsight, I guess I should have gone with a "not sarcastic" label. Think of the man-minutes of time I would have saved myself and others, lol.

    Alternatively, maybe Blogger could add a sarcasm detector that scans my blog automatically. It could look for optimistic elations and compare that to the tone of my blog's name? ;)

    ReplyDelete
  3. mabJanuary 9, 2014 at 5:09 PM

    Looks like SHLD had another sour Xmas. Must have been the weather.

    http://finance.yahoo.com/news/comparable-sales-sears-u-kmart-213335474.html

    From the article's comments:

    I Remember BIG Booyah Boy Jim Cramer used to tout this here Sears Holding back years ago when it was above a $140 a share!!!! Even ALL the QE in the world over these past 5-years has been able to support this stock!!! Booyah! Baby! Booyah!!!!!

    I'm thinking Sears should hire Lenny Dykstra. After all, Lenny is "one of the great ones".

    ReplyDelete
  4. Stagflationary MarkJanuary 10, 2014 at 12:14 AM

    mab,

    From your link:

    Sears Holdings Corp reported on Thursday that comparable store sales at its Kmart and Sears U.S. chains fell sharply during the holiday season, continuing a years-long decline.

    Pillar of frickin' retail strength!!

    It's a Marvel. What will those agents of SHLD think up next?

    And when it comes to Lenny, I certainly won't swing for the fences. Not my style! ;)

    ReplyDelete
  5. TroyJanuary 10, 2014 at 1:08 AM

    http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/USD1MTD156N

    1 mo LIBOR

    http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/JPY1MTD156N

    Japanese version

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PEo0Bxs7IOA

    ReplyDelete
  6. Stagflationary MarkJanuary 10, 2014 at 2:11 AM

    Troy,

    Thanks for that Japanese version. It really made my day (late night)! Hahaha! :)

    ReplyDelete