You Can't Handle the Truth!

The following chart shows the semiannual average of the 30-year conventional mortgage rate.


Click to enlarge.

I have added an exponential decay trend line in blue and an exponential decay channel in red. To create the top of the channel, I multiplied the interest rate in blue by 1.2 (+20%). To create the bottom of the channel, I multiplied the interest rate in blue by 0.8 (-20%).

Over the long-term, does that look like a rising interest rate environment to you? Is there any indication, any indication at all, that the long-term trend is failing? As of the 2nd half of 2013, we're sitting right on the long-term trend line in blue.

You can't handle the truth! Son, we live in a world that hits housing walls and those housing walls have to be guarded by men with continually falling interest rate policies.

Did you see the stock market turn red?
I did the job.
Did you see the stock market turn red?
You're goddamned right I did!

This is not investment advice.

Source Data:
St. Louis Fed: Custom Chart