I live in the USA and I am concerned about the future. I created this blog to share my thoughts on the economy and anything else that might catch my attention.
Monday, March 10, 2014
Real GDP Growth per Capita (Musical Tribute)
The following chart shows the 20 year moving average of annual real GDP growth per capita.
20 years is more than enough time to filter out most of the short-term cyclical noise (short-term expansions/contractions) and leave us with a reasonable long-term trend.
I dropped it into Excel so that I could offer you some statistics. There were clearly lots of ups and downs. The median from 1930 to 1970 was 2.8%. The average was 2.3% (pulled down by the Great Depression).
If everyone could do it easily, then I'd have to reduce the annual subscription cost of my blog from $0 to something even less. Just think how deflationary that would be.
Tongue firmly in cheek but not entirely joking of course. Go figure.
20 years is more than enough time to filter out most of the short-term cyclical noise (short-term expansions/contractions) and leave us with a reasonable long-term trend.
ReplyDeleteI assume the pre-1970 trend was fairly stable at ~ 2.5%. Ah , the wonders of neoliberal structural transformation !
ReplyDeleteYou should call this graph "Bob" - for Robert Gordon.
Anonymous,
ReplyDeleteHere is the annual data.
I dropped it into Excel so that I could offer you some statistics. There were clearly lots of ups and downs. The median from 1930 to 1970 was 2.8%. The average was 2.3% (pulled down by the Great Depression).
2.8% these days is a pipe dream. Sigh.
OK , thanks. That's about what I thought.
ReplyDeleteThe raw data makes it tough to grasp intuitively , but the long-term trend is clear , as shown by your curve-fitting.
Wish FRED gave us a way to do moving averages....
Anonymous,
ReplyDeleteWish FRED gave us a way to do moving averages....
If everyone could do it easily, then I'd have to reduce the annual subscription cost of my blog from $0 to something even less. Just think how deflationary that would be.
Tongue firmly in cheek but not entirely joking of course. Go figure.