Real Total Business Sales per Capita: A Tale of 4 Trend Failures

The following chart shows the 12 month moving average of real total monthly business sales per capita (January 2014 dollars).


Click to enlarge.

I have never seen so many "sure thing" linear trend failures in one chart before. I am pointing out four of the most important ones and will leave the other three as an exercise for the reader.

Okay, here's the commentary.

Investing in the Dotcom Bust Aftermath

1. Invest in the steep "sure thing" orange trend line until it fails.
2. Although you are well above the median in blue, just ignore it.
3. Invest in the flatter "sure thing" purple trend line until it fails.
4. Panic.

Investing in the Housing Bust Aftermath

1. Invest in the steep "sure thing" red trend line until it fails.
2. Although you are well above the median in blue, just ignore it.
3. Invest in the flatter "sure thing" green trend line until it fails.
4. Panic?

How can you possibly lose?

This is definitely NOT investment advice.

Source Data:
St. Louis Fed: Custom Chart