Sunday, November 23, 2014

Exponential Trend Failure of the Day: Real Exports of Financial Services

The following chart shows the 3-year moving average of real monthly exports of financial services (September 2014 dollars). I have added two trend lines for your consideration.


Click to enlarge.

What a beautiful transition from one trend (in blue) to the other (in red)! I assure you that the data in black is actually there. You just need to look really closely for it.

I have bad news, good news, and more bad news.

1. The blue exponential growth trend failed.
2. Parabolic trends are even better!
3. Unless they're upside down.

So, on that note...

Hey world! We ain't done financially servicin' you yet!



Get over here!

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Source Data:
St. Louis Fed: Custom Chart

7 comments:

  1. If I were a international financial services company I'd be working real hard to get my business off of the US radar.

    Side note: My latest post isn't showing on your blog bar on the left.

    ReplyDelete
  2. Yeah, well.... If I were green I'd be outraged - out RAGED - at the lack green trend-lines on this blog.

    ReplyDelete
  3. Rob Dawg,

    If I were a international financial services company I'd be working real hard to get my business off of the US radar.

    It's not a problem! Just need to fly under 50' and nobody gets hurt!

    Ba dum tssshhh

    ReplyDelete
  4. Anonymous,

    Yeah, well.... If I were green I'd be outraged - out RAGED - at the lack green trend-lines on this blog.

    I see what you are doing here and it's not going to work!

    If I start using green trend lines on my green charts, then nobody will see them. And if nobody sees them, then nobody will panic. And if nobody ever panics again, then prosperity goes to infinity and beyond!

    Hold on, maybe it will work! You are a genius!! That's it! I'm changing the blog's name and updating all these charts! Woohoo!

    Prosperity, baby. That's what I'm talking about! ;)

    ReplyDelete
  5. http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/JPNASSETS

    a trend that need not fail!

    Though how it interacts with this:

    http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/LFWA64TTJPM647S

    is the curious bit.

    At any rate,

    http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/JPNPROINDMISMEI

    is the true tale of the tape.

    zero growth = ZIRP I guess.

    ReplyDelete
  6. Troy,

    If I had been put in a cave in 1980, was just now coming out, you handed me these charts, then I think my first questions would probably be...

    Have scientists discovered a cure yet for the epidemic?

    What? No epidemic? It seems too smooth to be a world war. Are we winning?

    What? No war? Is it hyperinflation?

    What? No inflation at all? Have the ice caps melted? Or is the world freezing over?

    What? That's not it either? Did someone invent some really, really addicting video games?

    Aha! I knew it! Hahaha! ;)

    ReplyDelete