ANALYSIS: The truth about the US pilots shortage
The US General Accounting Office says it does not know if there is an airline pilot shortage in the country. The Air Line Pilots Association says there is no shortage. The US Federal Aviation Administration says it is not the cause of the problem.
The Regional Airline Association says: come to Cleveland, Ohio or Tupelo, Mississippi or Devils Lake, North Dakota and we will show you there definitely is a shortage and it could become everyone’s problem.
The Regional Airline Association says: come to Cleveland, Ohio or Tupelo, Mississippi or Devils Lake, North Dakota and we will show you there definitely is a shortage and it could become everyone’s problem.
What a great start to a mystery!
Cohen is emphatic that there is a pilot shortage. “This time it is different. It is here. It is very real. And it has happened faster and more significantly than anyone had ever expected.”
Sounds like the perfect description of the economy when I started my blog back in late 2007, lol. Sigh.
ALPA, a union representing about 50,000 commercial pilots in the US and Canada, claims there is no shortage of capable candidates, only “a shortage of pay and benefits for pilots in the regional airline industry”, according to president Lee Moak.
Pardon me for saying this, but would the president of a union ever say differently? Let's actually look to see if we can spot a shortage of pay in the air transportation industry.
The following chart shows the 5-year moving average of real air transportation production and nonsupervisory employee hourly earnings (September 2014 Dollars).
Click to enlarge.
The chart would imply that there was a glut of air transportation employees heading into 2000 and it has since turned into a shortage. I'm therefore inclined to believe alarmist Cohen over union president Moak. Perhaps I am biased though, because Cohen already won me over with his quote. In fact, I think I shall take his quote and merge it with my own thoughts.
This time it is different. It is here. It is very real. And it has happened faster and more significantly than anyone had ever expected. And we may very well slide into the next recession while still stuck in ZIRP!
Too dramatic? Can I get a ruling from the judges?
Source Data:
BLS: CES Databases
St. Louis Fed: CPI
A shortage at wages they are willing to
ReplyDeletepay is more likely the truth. Look for a push to allow foreign trained pilots to lower wages.
Sporkfed
Sporkfed,
ReplyDeleteOn a darker note, it may be a moot point if a contagious global pandemic (like the Spanish Flu of 1918) ever appears again. That would pretty put a fork in the air transportation industry if our reaction to Ebola and 9/11 is any indication.
There I go, being all doomsayer again. Hope for the best, plan for the worst (or at the very least, something other than the optimistic best case scenario that many seem to embrace).