Nevada Employment: Good News and Bad News

First, the good news.

December 16, 2014
Nevada employment climbing toward 2007 peak

CARSON CITY — In 2016, Nevada employment will surpass its peak year of 2007, a jobs expert predicted Tuesday.

Now, the bad news.

Even if it is a good prediction, that's nine years of nothing burger. That's not the bad news though. It's coming next.

The following chart shows the 4-month moving average of total nonfarm employment in Nevada.


Click to enlarge.

As seen in the blue trend line, employment was growing parabolically since the end of the Great Recession. That favorable employment trend failed in February of 2014. In that very month, a new parabola in red took its place. The new trend is most unfavorable. One wonders if the jobs expert has factored this in.

Let's zoom in for a closer look.


Click to enlarge.

There's no denying that the data (in black) is no longer following the blue parabola and is now following the red parabola. The smooth transition from the blue parabola to the red parabola at the beginning of this year is a work of art.

This new red parabola will make 1.3 million jobs in 2016 extremely difficult.

As seen in the link, he's putting his money (so to speak) on the creation of 3,500 jobs at a new Tesla battery plant. Says it will play a big part. Good luck on that.

October 2, 2014
Tesla's Massive Battery Factory Could Make Nevada The 'Richest Place On Earth Again'

"There's a tsunami coming in," Gilman said, referring to the businesses, developers and workers he envisions occupying the place some day.

Richest place on earth? Well, I'm certainly glad expectations are well-anchored to what people can envision. For what it is worth, I'm envisioning a red parabolic tsunami that better fail soon, and to the upside (or all hope is lost).

As they say, talk's cheap. This is not investment advice.

Source Data:
St. Louis Fed: All Employees: Total Nonfarm in Nevada