August 12, 2015
Things just got a lot more complicated for the Federal Reserve
If you are like me, then you are probably wondering exactly how much more complicated things just got for the Fed. Oddly enough, we are given all the information we need to calculate it.
A week ago, the CME Group FedWatch tool had assigned a better than 50 percent chance of a rate hike next month. However, the latest wagering has the probability down to 39 percent, with the strongest chance of liftoff in 2015 not coming until December, which now has a 66 percent chance.
If September now has a 39% chance, and December now has a 66% chance, then the combination exceeds 100% by a full 5%. This puts the Fed in a paradoxical simple math headlock for which there can be little to no chance of recovery!
Forehead. Desk. Whack. Whack. Whack.
This data is either bogus or was reported incorrectly and/or deceptively. In either event, way to go CNBC!
If I am reading it right, then we are told the odds of a September hike but we aren't actually told the odds of a December hike.
ReplyDeleteIf so, that's a needlessly complicated and obfuscated way to present the data. What are the actual odds of a December hike? Who knows? We're only told that if there is a rate hike in 2015 then the ofds are 66%. If.
It's like you asking me what the odds are that I will be buying milk today and all I tell you is that there is a 66% chance I'll buy milk if I go to the store.
Am I going to the store today? Not tellin', lol. Sigh.
The wording is vague and the math doesn't add up. That's my only attempt to make any sense of how the math can logically get to 105%. Simple math shouldn't ever need to be this complicated.
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