Click to enlarge.
The data in black shows corporate dividends divided by GDP. The blue trend line shows the median. The red trend line shows the exponential growth from 1975:Q4 to 2016:Q1.
So, here comes the optimism. Brace for it.
First, we get back on the exponential trend line in red. Next, we patiently wait for dividends to someday exceed GDP. Mark it on your calendars! In sharp defiance of all other unsustainable exponential growth models, this one's a sure thing!
Hey, I never claimed that it was a good reason for optimism. In my defense, it doesn't generally take much of a reason for an optimist to embrace optimism. The bar's set pretty low. ;)
As a side note, the optimists better hope we can't return to the median. Don't let the naysaying pessimists, and their crazy notions that anything is possible, win!
Source Data:
St. Louis Fed: Custom Chart
I'm not selling until dividends are 110% of GDP. I know that's not overly optimistic, but I like to sell just before the herd panics - probably around 115% of GDP.
ReplyDeletemab,
ReplyDeleteHahaha!
Based on a non-scientific survey sample of one, I'm currently holding until dividends are 109% of GDP. I should warn you that I an data dependent though, on the off chance we start a bidding war. ;)
I should warn you that I an data dependent though
ReplyDeleteLikewise. And I analyse the data using very advanced and time proven technical analysis. I evaluate countless metrics like momentum, price action, support, resistance, trading ranges, divergence, etc. Some times I throw in some Dow theory too. And it goes without saying that I never miss Cramer.
Anyway, the stochastic range for the herd panicking is very tight and getting tighter - currently between 114.56% to 116.33% (repeating of course).
At 109%, you're leaving way too much on the table.
mab,
ReplyDeleteDammit! I spoke to my astrologer and she said the same damn thing!
"Please leave your money on the table."
What choice did I have? I have to keep on her good side or the readings might take a biased turn for the worse! :)
Always the negative spin.
ReplyDeleteI see the result of more activist investors not allowing mgt to screw them over.
I remember a event in about 1985 where mgt gave themselves multi million dollar bonuses and gave the employees something like a 10k bonus each and gave the stockholders zip. This was a large oil co, I can't remember the name but it generated a raider to move on this mgt ignoring stockholders.
Now we see mgt respect investors with payouts and buybacks, as they should.
But to bears like you, its all bad.
Oh, yeah, I forgot , sigh,lol.
I see the result of more activist investors not allowing mgt to screw them over.
ReplyDeleteYou mean like Bill Ackman and Valeant?
Now we see mgt respect investors with payouts and buybacks, as they should.
You mean like pushing the companies deeper in debt so they can buyback shares in an attempt to boost the value of their generous stock options?
That kind of respect?