It is very interesting, at least to me, that prices have consistently been growing linearly (and not exponentially). On average, the consumer price index has been growing by about 4.4 points per year. Was true when the index was only 100. Was still true when the index exceeded 250.
Should the trend continue, the average growth rate of 1.72% per year over the last decade will fall to 1.56% over the next decade.
Of course, the trend won't necessarily continue. And if it doesn't continue, which way will it fail?
I'm leaning heavily towards eventually failing to the downside like Japan. Even if I am ultimately right (certainly not a given), eventually is a very hard thing to time. *shrug*
Source Data:
St. Louis Fed: CPI
The MIT billion prices project is probably more accurate for what consumers experience. It tracked official CPI-3 pretty will but was usually slightly higher, sometimes a full point higher. I'm not sure how it compares recently. Experienced inflation is unique to each person unless two people purchase the exact same goods in the same quantities at the same time and place
ReplyDeleteInflation is really high for out of stock board games and their expansions during a pandemic, especially for those who have OCD and no patience.
ReplyDeleteIt hasn’t hit me directly, but only because I’m slightly more patient than I am OCD. Slightly. ;)
As an example, Mage Knight Ultimate Edition is one I wished to purchase. It normally retails for $125. Near the beginning of the pandemic, the few copies available were selling for $240+. I passed. It then became almost impossible to buy at any price. It came back in stock recently. Got it for $112.99, and it’s currently being shipped to me for free.
I thought I got a great deal, but just after I bought it I saw that Amazon had a limited time deal for less than $90. Didn’t last long. Now everyone is selling it at full retail again ($125), even the place that sold it to me at a discount. Great deal? No. Good deal though? Yeah, I guess so.
Lots of shortages out there right now in the board gaming space. It’s like everyone is still stuck at home. Well, not everyone I guess. There also seems to be a home shortage. Real estate is apparently selling like out of stock board games too.
May we live in interesting times.
I almost pulled the trigger on the 1970s Parker Brothers Masterpiece board game. I found one in great condition for 49.99 but backed off at the last minute. I still might go back and buy it. It's hard to find old games with all the pieces. Indeed, board game inflation is real, but not realized by people who don't buy them. Sounds like you got a very good deal.
ReplyDeleteNoble Knight Games can be a good place to find out of stock games. I’ve used them several times during the pandemic.
ReplyDeleteThey had a 1970s copy of Masterpiece stocked in November.
https://www.nobleknight.com/P/11142/Masterpiece---The-Classic-Art-Auction-Game-1970-Edition
Excellent, I'll keep an eye on it and try to minimize inflation.
ReplyDelete