This is probably the most disturbing exponential trend failure that's ever been posted on this blog. The pandemic makes the Great Recession look like a minor hiccup. Will things ever return to normal? How many restaurants will actually survive?
Monday, February 8, 2021
Unprecedented Restaurant Pain
The following chart shows the natural log of the sales of food services and drinking places. Constant exponential growth is seen as a straight line.
This is probably the most disturbing exponential trend failure that's ever been posted on this blog. The pandemic makes the Great Recession look like a minor hiccup. Will things ever return to normal? How many restaurants will actually survive?
This is probably the most disturbing exponential trend failure that's ever been posted on this blog. The pandemic makes the Great Recession look like a minor hiccup. Will things ever return to normal? How many restaurants will actually survive?
Normalcy returns September 2021. Less than 50% of restaurants survive, disproportionately restaurant chains.
ReplyDeletePatient: When will my vision return to normal?
ReplyDeleteDoctor: September.
Patient: So my missing eye will grow back?
Doctor: Well... let’s call it a new normal.
Yes, mostly large restaurant chains will survive. I can think of a lot of reasons for this. They have banking connections and got PPP grants more easily. They started with more resources. They can close poor performing locations and survive. They have better management.
ReplyDeletePatient: When will my vision return to normal?
Doctor: September.
Patient: So my 125 missing eyes out of 1,000 will grow back?
Doctor: Well... let’s call it a new normal.
Does FRED have this data for gyms?
ReplyDeleteMy head is still spinning over the revelation that restaurants, bars, and gyms are absolutely necessary to this country's survival.
My virus takeaway: ameriCON can no longer stand on her own.
FRED doesn’t have specific data for gyms. Here’s the report that shows what they do have.
ReplyDeleteU.S. Census: ADVANCE MONTHLY SALES FOR RETAIL AND FOOD SERVICES, DECEMBER 2020
Department stores already had unprecedented pain, so that’s just more of the same.