Friday, October 17, 2008

I'm Capitulating

Buffett: I'm buying stocks

"Fears regarding the long-term prosperity of the nation's many sound companies make no sense," wrote Buffett. "Most major companies will be setting new profit records 5, 10 and 20 years from now."

I started this blog on August 31, 2007.

The Dow was 13,357.74.
The S&P 500 was 1,473.99.
The Nasdaq was 2,596.36.

I'm suspending this blog on October 17, 2008.

The Dow is 8,972.33 (down 33%).
The S&P 500 is 947.87 (down 36%).
The Nasdaq is 1,734.47 (down 33%).

I'm taking the cowards way out and locking in my anti-prosperity thoughts while the locking in is good.

I guess that means I'm long-term prosperity neutral right now. I'd certainly never bet against Warren Buffett. I won't be buying stocks though. I'm fine with the real yields that TIPS currently offer. I will also continue to hoard toilet paper. Some habits may never die, lol.

That being said, I'm encouraged that commodities and oil have sold off, that real interest rates have risen (much to my surprise), that the euro and China have been discredited as superior safe havens (not to my surprise), that stock prices have come down to more reasonable levels (as opposed to hyperinflated), and most of all that
Caterpillar (a stock I sold in 2004) has seemingly finally ended its "sure thing" only goes up ride. I do think the situation is somewhat different now. I simply never bought into the idea that a commodity boom would be good for prosperity (much like it wasn't in the 1970s). That was a major reason for my bearishness.

Our country still faces many challenges, but so do all the other countries of the world. I continue to believe that things will get worse before they get better (perhaps much worse), but that's a definite improvement from what I once believed. Namely, that things might not ever get better.

Deep down, I think I saw this day coming. I haven't created charts in a long time. That's partly because I didn't think much new relevant "bearish" information could be offered. Sure, the charts would look ugly, but we kind of knew they would be. What's more important is what they will look like in the distant future, and I'm not all that convinced one way or another.

This global commodity selloff feels like the real deal to me. The reason I think it might be different this time (very scary to predict such things) is because real yields have risen so much. Higher real yields choke demand for hoarding commodities. That was not the case in previous selloffs. Here's the chart that I feel best shows that something might be different this time.

TIP vs. IEF (2 year chart)

Note that the two funds (inflation protected vs. no inflation protection) tracked each other very closely but then diverged recently, in a major way. You will also note that I was/am on the wrong side of that trade. Fortunately, the modest pain in recent days (especially compared to what stock investors were feeling) is offset by the pleasure over the last year . Higher inflation was generating high distributions to me, which is not reflected in the chart. Using hindsight, I would have done just as well in the past year simply burying that paper money in the backyard though. Go figure.

I will continue to monitor the comments section of this post for those who wish to continue to chit chat into the distant future. It has been a pleasure.

Also feel free to email me directly at markm0722_0001@comcast.net.

The blog is suspended. You will note that it is not deleted. I reserve the right to return even more bearish than ever in the future, should conditions warrant it. Don't even get me started on how we're planning to fund Social Security and Medicare.

172 comments:

  1. Stag,

    I've enjoyed the blog. Charts, insights, humor. All good.

    In a time of drastic change it is the learners who inherit the future. The learned usually find themselves equipped to live in a world that no longer exists. - Eric Hoffer.

    The future is yours!

    BTW, I had never heard of Hoffer until I found your blog.

    ReplyDelete
  2. MAB,

    In a time of drastic change it is the learners who inherit the future. The learned usually find themselves equipped to live in a world that no longer exists. - Eric Hoffer.

    The future is yours!


    I very much get that feeling these days, lol.

    Excuse me kind sir. Have you heard the wonders of inflation protected treasuries in a deflationary world? You have? You've already got some you say? Well, then. You most certainly are prepared. I also have a collection of rare and valuable Amway products in my trunk that I just know you are going to like then. ;)

    I've enjoyed the blog. Charts, insights, humor. All good.

    It would not have been the same without you (and everyone else) leaving me comments. It was not what I expected when I started. I actually expected more than a few know-it-all hecklers to be heckling me, if only because I probably deserved it. Live by the sword, die by the sword, lol.

    I will take you back in the time machine to the only heckler I can recall. He went after both of us, you in particular! We should bask in the glory that 20/20 hindsight can be.

    Our Pillars of Retail Strength
    May 8, 2008
    http://illusionofprosperity.blogspot.com/2008/05/our-pillars-of-retail-strength.html

    You said:

    Lampert was hailed as a whiz when he bought up Sears and Kmart. It was a real estate play AND a retail play.

    The real estate part made some sense given the low, low interest rates at the time. The retail play never made any sense.

    As retailers, Sears & Kmart are "dead as fried chicken" in my view. (Homage to Jules/Pulp Fiction). Seriously, it's like trying to revive Braniff or Eastern Airlines. Good luck with that.


    Anonymous replied:

    I can't believe the previous comments are supposed to be taken seriously. First off, Eddie Lampert was recognized as a whiz a decade before buying Kmart. Second of Lampert is still a whiz his return on Kmart and on Sears even with the recent decline beats the market hand over fist.

    Either you guys are joking or you like to buy high and sell low. Not my style. Lampert and Sears will prove to be fantastic investments over the next 10 years. Over the next 10 minutes? who knows and who cares?


    10 minutes? Let's try five months. Apparently we could take your comments seriously, lol.

    Price then: 93.45
    Price now: 60.90

    Here's the latest comment left on the Yahoo message board.

    http://messages.finance.yahoo.com/Stocks_%28A_to_Z%29/Stocks_S/threadview?m=tm&bn=24435&tid=237975&mid=237975&tof=1&frt=2

    Wall Street Takes Every One Of These Wizards ...

    to the wood shed. Every one, sooner or later.

    See Ya Eddie !!


    Here's the recent news.

    Sears shares fall after target cut
    http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/081013/sears_holdings_mover.html?.v=2

    "Sears is in the eye of today's consumer spending storm," Shapira told investors in a note, adding that company that operates Sears and Kmart stores is being hit by fewer big-ticket appliance purchases and falling clothing sales.

    Yeah, hindsight is being very kind to us. We found the eye of the storm. Who knew? I'm not sure we really needed hindsight to see that coming though. We were both fairly confident in our opinions then. I can't speak for you, but there are times in my life when I sometimes think I actually know what I'm doing. Five months ago was one of those times.

    Now I feel as clueless as the next guy though. Hopefully the difference between me and the next guy is that I also sometimes know when to keep my mouth shut. That's one primary reason I'm suspending the blog. I have little to say, other than just heckling the latest market gyrations (which I cannot even remotely predict). There's really not much value in that.

    Know what you know and know what you don't know. People would be well served by remembering that. That's what helped Warren Buffett so much anyway. Not only did he not invest in things he didn't understand, more importantly he also knew he didn't understand them and was even willing to admit it publicly. Go figure.

    Reports that say that something hasn't happened are always interesting to me, because as we know, there are known knowns; there are things we know we know. We also know there are known unknowns; that is to say we know there are some things we do not know. But there are also unknown unknowns -- the ones we don't know we don't know. - Donald Rumsfeld

    I quote him somewhat tongue-in-cheek because it turns out we are the same personality type: INTJ. Scary thought.

    http://www.personalitypage.com/INTJ.html

    When under a great deal of stress, the INTJ may become obsessed with mindless repetitive, Sensate activities, such as over-drinking.

    I chose musical tributes, lol.

    ReplyDelete
  3. Thanks for the learning.

    Of course your next post will be entitled. "Wow, didn't see that one coming"

    Can't wait to read it. Or maybe I should???????

    ReplyDelete
  4. If you insist. Personally, I'd be delighted if you were to give us a shout at, say, the New Year.

    ReplyDelete
  5. Buffett's "buy now" call gets lukewarm reception
    http://www.reuters.com/article/ousiv/idUSTRE49G5Z620081017

    Lukewarm is more then I'm giving it Mark but then again I'm one of those pesky perma-bears. I'll check by every now and then to see if you have fired the blog back up. Enjoy life.

    kevin

    ReplyDelete
  6. I'm Not POTUS,

    Of course your next post will be entitled. "Wow, didn't see that one coming"

    Can't wait to read it. Or maybe I should???????


    Hahaha! If it turns out that I was once again too optimistic (quite possible), then I now have a great headline for my next post.

    We're all picturing really tough times ahead. Heaven help us all if that's being way too optimistic.

    ReplyDelete
  7. dearieme,

    If you insist. Personally, I'd be delighted if you were to give us a shout at, say, the New Year.

    My next musical tribute could very well be "Old Anxieties" (Auld Lang Sign) if the Christmas season is unexpectedly bad (which would be tough since everyone already expects a complete bust).

    There's hope you may be very delighted indeed. ;)

    ReplyDelete
  8. Oops, Auld Lang Syne. How did that sign get in there? Good grief. I hope it wasn't a Freudian slip, since warning signs come to mind.

    ReplyDelete
  9. Kevin,

    Lukewarm is more then I'm giving it Mark but then again I'm one of those pesky perma-bears. I'll check by every now and then to see if you have fired the blog back up. Enjoy life.

    I admire your pessimistic optimism! If you are right to be a perma-bear, I should be back in no time! Sigh.

    And who am I to say you are wrong? It isn't like I'm rushing off to buy Sears Holdings Corporation. Worse, it isn't like I'm rushing off to shop at Sears either. In fact, I can't remember the last time I was even in the store.

    I'm officially neither bull nor bear now, caught in a place that is just as real, but not as brightly lit. Oops. Slipped into Tales from the Darkside episode there for a moment. Sorry about that.

    Further, I'm not even sure what's changed. I'm still doing EXACTLY the same things with my portfolio I was doing before I capitulated.

    I did capitulate though. Trust me on this. I'm pretty sure I did anyway. Don't let the image of me clutching the [inflation protected] towel with a deathgrip dissuade you from thinking that it won't be in the ring once they pry it from my cold dead fingers! ;)

    ReplyDelete
  10. Mark,

    We have now entered the arena at this stage of the game, this will be a fight to the death and only the fittest, the savviest, along with perhaps a few lucky ones will survive. May you emerge a victor although in this game everyone loses in the end.

    Kevin

    ReplyDelete
  11. Thanks for your interesting blog and wonderful video, the Banana roaming the park was unforgetable!
    We all tend to think in good vs bad terms, in financial land its deflation vs inflation or a bottom vs top. The real world is not model driven but adaptive!

    Good luck and thanks again!

    ReplyDelete
  12. Hey Mark, all my best. If you ever find yourself stranded in Stumptown, drop me a line: Portland Sag Wagon

    ReplyDelete
  13. Kevin,

    We have now entered the arena...

    Et tu Brutus?

    ReplyDelete
  14. Anonymous,

    Here were my two favorite videos.

    Charlie The Unicorn
    http://illusionofprosperity.blogspot.com/2007/11/happy-thanksgiving.html

    Charlie The Unicorn 2 - Charlie Goes to Candy Mountain
    http://illusionofprosperity.blogspot.com/2008/08/rude-shock-alert.html

    Who couldn't love Candy Mountain and the Banana King!

    Good luck to you as well. I think we're all going to need it.

    ReplyDelete
  15. AllanF,

    That's a nice looking site and business model you have there.

    May the world truly beat a path to your door! :)

    ReplyDelete
  16. Hey, I appreciate the commentary and wit.
    I'll check in from time to time, too, and maybe I'll see you at some of our other favorite econ/finance blogs and websites as we all get through whatever this is in some unforeseen way or another!

    ReplyDelete
  17. threetorches,

    Hey, I appreciate the commentary and wit.

    You are at serious risk of inflating my ego. ;)

    I'll check in from time to time, too...

    Everyone should get a chance to check in and behold the wonders of the next earmarked prosperity wave, my friend. That's why my plan includes a $5,000 tax credit for those checking in from time to time. Don't worry though. I also propose a $10,000 tax credit for those who can't afford to ultimately pay for the $5,000 tax credit.

    I think I just threw up a little bit in my own mouth. It was not my intention to sound like I was running for president. Sorry about that.

    ...and maybe I'll see you at some of our other favorite econ/finance blogs and websites as we all get through whatever this is in some unforeseen way or another!

    I'm trying to put the economy on the back-burner, not that it truly can be put there.

    There's been too much pain, too much suffering, just walk away... - Humungus, Road Warrior, 1981

    That's me, capitulating, 1981 apocalypse style!

    If you really want to know what might draw me back it would be the following.

    Most investors become fanatically optimistic again, even in the wake of the dotcom implosion, the real estate implosion, and the latest stock market implosion.

    Based on today's stock market activity and using simple extrapolation, it looks like the blog could easily be up and running again by Thanksgiving, lol.

    ReplyDelete
  18. Stag,

    Check out the following chart. It puts into perspective the "wisdom" of high finance - mortgages, leveraged corporate loans, private equity and hedge funds.

    http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=VSLAX#chart3:symbol=vslax;range=5y;compare=swysx+bx+fig+ozm;indicator=volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on;source=undefined

    It really is a sham(e).

    Hope you are enjoying your second retirement. I saw a new Ben Stein Yahoo! Finance article yesterday. I only read the first and last paragraphs. The esteemed Mr. Stein is "still" buying. From these levels, he has a shot at a decent long term return. In aggregate though, I don't think his portfolio will ever sport real returns (above inflation).

    I just have one question for Ben Stein - How is more debt going to alleviate the underlying excessive debt problem?

    It could be me, but I'd like to know the answer to that question rather than just trust Paulson, Bernanke, CONgress and wall street.

    ReplyDelete
  19. MAB,

    I just came out of my hole and I saw my frickin' shadow! Today's market selloff did not actually sell off TIPS along with it. Go figure.

    To nearly quote a certain presidential nominee, "Taste of the prosperity bathwater, my friends."

    Check out the following chart. It puts into perspective the "wisdom" of high finance - mortgages, leveraged corporate loans, private equity and hedge funds.

    Check out the profile of that fund. It is every bit as amusing as the chart.

    http://finance.yahoo.com/q/pr?s=VSLAX

    The investment seeks current income, consistent with preservation of capital.

    Investment Banker: Have you given any thought to earning greater rewards while taking on lower risk?

    Client: Would that be consistent with your brand new yacht and luxury car at my expense?

    Investment Banker: But of course!

    My heckling isn't quite done yet though.

    Best-Performing Bond Mutual Funds
    May 9, 2008
    http://www.thestreet.com/_yahoo/markets/bonds-economy/10415926.html?cm_ven=YAHOO&cm_cat=FREE&cm_ite=NA

    Representing the best of this group, the E rated Van Kampen Senior Loan Fund(VSLAX Quote - Cramer on VSLAX - Stock Picks) returned 4.14% for the period.

    Am I allowed to heckle these days though? I capitulated (tongue-in-cheek). Based on current market prices I have once again showed myself to be way too optimistic.

    I just have one question for Ben Stein - How is more debt going to alleviate the underlying excessive debt problem?

    In much the same way more water fixes structural problems at a dam?

    Teton Dam Flood
    http://www.rootsweb.ancestry.com/~idfremon/flood.htm

    Water began seeping from the canyon wall about 750 feet down stream from the dam Thursday, but no alarm was sounded because some seepage is expected in an earthen dam.

    Deep down, I think most of us expected a certain amount of seepage in our economy's earthen dam. It was easy to expect that. We were told it over and over again as the economy began to slow.

    ReplyDelete
  20. Speaking of water...

    Inflation Has Subsided, but for How Long?
    http://biz.yahoo.com/ms/081021/258557.html?.v=2

    Either way, the point is that TIPS should be attractive to long-term investors right now precisely because expectations for inflation are low.

    Attractive? It all makes sense to me now. TIPS are not the baby in the bathwater. TIPS are very sexy to me. They give birth to future babies! (The extrapolator in me ponders how unsustainable 3% real yields would compound over a few thousand years.)

    You don't want to buy flood insurance after the river is in your living room. By then, it is too late and the price of protection is too high.

    That's not what I'm told in commercial advertising. Money is to be made constantly day trading flood insurance during the flood, every two minutes or so. How can we possibly lose when we are given the tools to backtest our trading strategies up to 10 full years (conveniently avoiding the Great Depression and/or 1970s) and we are competing with others using those very same tools?

    We recommend that you keep TIPS on the radar and consider allocating a bit of your portfolio to them, but don't back up the truck just yet.

    Now they tell me. I've backed the truck up so far it almost ran out of gas, lol.

    The deleveraging that we spoke of is still working itself through the system and there could be some unpleasant bumps over the next few weeks.

    That is something I probably should have seen coming, using hindsight. The Death of Real Yields died. I did not see that coming. Real yields shot up. I do think it is temporary. I will be pleasantly surprised if it isn't though. What hurts me in the short-term helps me in the long-term. That's not such a bad downside and is certainly something I can live with.

    That being said...

    In the ETF space, iShares Lehman TIPS Bond ETF (NYSEArca:TIP - News) currently sports a 7% yield, an effective 7.21 duration, and a cost of 0.20%.

    Currently? That's an interesting word to be using on what we're seeing in the rear-view mirror. Anyone who assumes 7% yields over the next year now that the price of oil has been cut in half might want to buy some swampland from me. It's never been cheaper!

    As a final word of caution, the yield on TIPS is variable with inflation, so investors shouldn't think that they've locked in the above yields.

    But if they do think that, swampland! Yeah, baby, that's what I'm talking about.

    ReplyDelete
  21. Stag,

    From your link:

    http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=OPCHX#symbol=OPCHX;range=my

    As of 9/30/08 this black hole of an investment had a 10 yr annualized return of 1.24%. It's down ~ 33% since so the 10 yr total return is now very negative.

    Truly awful, but, it gets even worse. In a taxable account, taxes on the yearly distributions are due each and every calendar year. Much of those distibutions are at ordinary income tax levels too as opposed to the lower capital gains tax levels. The capital losses, which are well over 50% of invested principal, are only deductible up to $1500/yr. This turkey is a serious negative wealth builder.

    There is some good news though. Under current tax law, the capital losses can be bequeathed! Who says the baby boomers aren't leaving anything for the next generation?

    We need to make scam avoidance and skepticism required learning in all our public schools. Seriously.

    ReplyDelete
  22. Stag,

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jubilee_(Christian)

    Also, see the "Biblical Jubilee". Originally the Jews could not individually own the land - only lease it for 50 years.

    It's clear to me there will be no debt forgiveness. I'm not for it or against it really. I would like to see the free market work it out. Instead, it looks like we are following in Japan's footsteps.

    Maybe individuals should do themselves and the eCONomy a big favor and start declaring their own Jubilees. I think many will. And I think many investors now see this. That's the worst part of the Paulson plan. The foolish get to pawn off their bad investments to society before the big debt fawoom.

    What a sham!

    ReplyDelete
  23. MAB,

    http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=OPCHX#symbol=OPCHX;range=my

    We're stuck in Groundhog Day mode.

    Watch that step! It's a doozie! - Ned Ryherson, Groundhog Day, 1993

    ReplyDelete
  24. MAB,

    Maybe individuals should do themselves and the eCONomy a big favor and start declaring their own Jubilees.

    Sorry. Galas, jubilees, and jamborees are currently in the poning process.

    Slow Economy Forces Postponement Of Frog Gala
    http://www.mymotherlode.com/News/article/kvml/1224635786

    According to Executive Director Diane Gray, the charity auction's success is based on the generosity of local citizens, and the Chamber does not want to impose on residents at this time.

    The Chamber plans to reschedule the auction for sometime this Spring, leading up to the Calaveras County Fair and Jumping Frog Jubilee.


    US economic rollercoaster casts pall over the jamboree
    http://www.theherald.co.uk/politics/news/display.var.2455812.0.US_economic_rollercoaster_casts_pall_over_the_jamboree.php

    As the economic rollercoaster ride plunged its way through the tunnel of horrors, the mood of despondency and alarm infected Tory proceedings to such an extent that glazed eyes and anxious minds were more focused on Capitol Hill and Wall St than on what was happening on the Birmingham podium.

    Boo fests are where it is at these days.

    A family boo fest
    http://www.indystar.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20081022/LIVING07/810220308/1272/LIVING07

    "Consumers who have been anxious and uncertain for the past several months may be looking at Halloween as an opportunity to forget the stresses of daily life and just have a little fun."

    That's sure to take our minds off of our haunted housing market. Here's something else that might take our minds off potential Great Depression style economic times.

    Halloween
    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Halloween

    Mass-produced Halloween costumes did not appear in stores until the 1930s...

    ...Children began to go door to door, receiving treats, rather than playing tricks on their neighbors. This helped to reduce the mischief, and by the 1930s, "beggar's nights" had become very popular. Trick-or-treating became widespread by the end of the 1930s.

    I'm still waiting on the treats part of trick-or-treating personally. Tricks seem to be all we get these days.

    Confidence tricks fail to secure our economic future
    http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2008/10/16/2392536.htm

    The Rudd government's $10.4 billion fiscal stimulus package is nothing more than a set of confidence tricks played out on the Australian people.

    The tricks of the United States Government are much, much bigger.

    Again, this funding sounds nice on the surface. Yet, most economists warn of the extensive waste of "churning" - where families pay tax to get it straight back as a government benefit - and this proposal only worsens the situation.

    Fortunately, in the United States we get the benefits/stimulus without even having to pay higher taxes. What a treat that will be long-term! If only I could figure out who will ultimately be paying for it.

    Head, meet buried sand again. *badum ching*

    ReplyDelete
  25. Fortunately, in the United States we get the benefits/stimulus without even having to pay higher taxes.

    If I didn't know better, I'd worry that you were mocking the Banana Repulic(an) economic model. Remember, deficits don't matter - at any level, government, household or corporate.

    I really don't know why so many can't see the root problem: too much household debt against too little household income. Wealth and income distributions are just scary.

    We have learned so much that we forgot the basics it seems.

    BTW, that Buffett stock call was odd imo. Any thoughts?

    ReplyDelete
  26. MAB,

    BTW, that Buffett stock call was odd imo. Any thoughts?

    Unfortunately, he's not always right.

    Warren Buffett, Airlines Hasn’t Always Been a Successful Marriage
    http://localtechwire.com/business/local_tech_wire/opinion/blogpost/2336788/

    However, Buffett certainly will never forget the $385 million investment he made in US Air. In 1995, he wrote off 75 percent of that investment during one of the many upheavals that make airline investments adventures into the unknown.

    I fear that the banking and insurance industries are becoming the next adventures into the unknown.

    I'd never bet against Buffett. In fact, these days I'm doing everything I can not to bet at all. Good thing too!

    I can't help but think that we reached the point where we talk of non-farm payrolls. I fear that in the distant future we'll be talking of non-farm, non-manufacturing, non-banking, non-restaurant payrolls. It seems a reasonably decent extrapolation based on the miracles of intense global competition, automation, outsourcing, and growing income inequality.

    ReplyDelete
  27. U.S. 30-Year Yield Drops to Lowest Since Regular Sales Began
    http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=afRbuMuUlpbw&refer=home

    ``There's a total risk aversion that keeps getting ramped up that is resulting in liquidation of risk assets,'' said Francis Mustaro, who heads a group managing about $500 million at J&W Seligman & Co. in New York.

    People are locking in the 30-year non-inflation protected treasuries at the lowest rates in more than three decades and that is considered risk aversion? Seriously? If they keep this up I'll have to start up a new blog titled Illusion of Safety.

    Meanwhile, treasuries with inflation "protection" continue to be sold off in a major way. Everyone has suddenly become an inflation expert and can accurately predict it 30 years out now. Who knew?

    I'm slightly skeptical to say the least. The economy seems at least as complex as the weather. I remember snowboarding one day on a mountain by myself. The sun was out. There was no wind. There wasn't a cloud in the sky. Why was I alone? The weathermen were predicting blizzard conditions that never came to pass. No joke.

    I also remember trying to be a weatherman on another day. It isn't easy. A father in the parking lot was telling his son that it was only going to get colder and that he really needed to bundle up. After they walked off we all laughed. Only going to get colder? What's he smoking? There's not a cloud in the sky. By the time we bought our lift tickets the snow was coming down hard. We had to walk back down to the parking lot to bundle up. It was a very humbling experience and we were all thankful that the father did not hear our original heckling/laughter!

    TIPS are ``a cheap sector,'' said William Chepolis, who oversees more than $9 billion of bonds as a fixed-income fund manager in New York at DWS Investment, a unit of Frankfurt-based Deutsche Bank AG. He said he favors 10-year TIPS. The 10-year breakeven rate was 0.84 percent today.

    ``At some point there will be inflation expectations greater than 1 percent, and you'll get a pretty nice price pop in that security,'' Chepolis said.

    ReplyDelete
  28. I can't seem to stop looking, much like a traffic accident onlooker.

    http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?$CRB

    It broke, is broke, the broke broke, broke and broke.

    break
    http://dictionary.reference.com/search?db=dictionary&q=broke

    20. to ruin financially; make bankrupt
    27. to release (a story) for publication or airing on radio or television
    51. to give way or fail, as health, strength, or spirit
    56. (of value or prices) to drop sharply and considerably
    77. the way things happen; fate
    84. a sharp and considerable drop in the prices of stock issues

    ReplyDelete
  29. Stag,

    Here's an insight/paradox (caveat emptor).

    The majority of "investors" don't like to buy things on sale. It's the coach handbag effect. If it ain't expensive (and going up in price), it can't be good.

    Strange but true from my perspective.

    Also, I read a study regarding shoppers at bulk wholesalers like BJs or Costco. Their clientele during good times is rich people and poor people. However, during hard times the middle class shows up - perhaps out of necessity. The middle class herd really likes to pay full price it seems - perhaps it makes them fell richer.

    Interestingly, the study joked that during good times the parking lot was full of Mercedes, BMWs and old worn out cars. I think if the study had looked further, they would have found that many of the old cars belonged to the wealthy.

    I see a sale on TIPs. Hence the aversion of the herd.

    ReplyDelete
  30. MAB,

    Here's an insight/paradox (caveat emptor).

    I think your insights are spot on.

    The majority of "investors" don't like to buy things on sale. It's the coach handbag effect. If it ain't expensive (and going up in price), it can't be good.

    I've heard that when Jack Daniels was first introduced into the Japanese economy few wanted it. They then raised the price and people couldn't get enough.

    Here's a related story.

    The Ballyhoo About Bourbon
    http://www.businessweek.com/bwdaily/dnflash/aug2003/nf20030822_2929_db028.htm

    Some aged specialty bourbons are now commanding astronomical premiums. For instance, a bottle of the 23-year-old variety of Pappy Van Winkle's Family Reserve, a niche bourbon from Old Rip Van Winkle, a small family company in Kentucky, goes for upwards of $200 per bottle in the U.S. -- and as much as $320 in London, according to Vincent Hill, marketing and sales manager for Amathus, the label's British distributor. The idea of aging bourbon is borrowed from the wine and scotch industries, but traditionalists believe that the liquor achieves its optimum taste after just seven or eight years.

    "I don't get it," marvels Jay Adams, president of A. Smith Bowman distillery. "If bourbon is aged too long, it starts to taste woody to me." Adams' opinion is worth considering. His distillery's Virginia Gentleman 90 Proof Small Batch Bourbon -- which is aged about seven years and costs about $20 per bottle -- won the top prize at the San Francisco World Spirits Competition in May, besting such better-known rivals as Knob Creek, Evan Williams, and Wild Turkey.


    Now back to your commments.

    Also, I read a study regarding shoppers at bulk wholesalers like BJs or Costco. Their clientele during good times is rich people and poor people. However, during hard times the middle class shows up - perhaps out of necessity. The middle class herd really likes to pay full price it seems - perhaps it makes them fell richer.

    Interestingly, the study joked that during good times the parking lot was full of Mercedes, BMWs and old worn out cars. I think if the study had looked further, they would have found that many of the old cars belonged to the wealthy.


    I'm not all that wealthy compared to the yacht owners of the world but certainly better off than most. I drive a 12 year old beaten up Camry that hasn't been washed in years (too cheap to pay for it!). I've never been a big fan of overinvesting in depreciating assets. I was in Costco a few days ago with a shopping list and a hand full of coupons buying as much as I thought I could eventually use (four giant boxes of popcorn for instance). I hadn't shaved. I was dressed in sweats.

    My check had to be cleared by a supervisor yet again. We are continually reminded that the executive membership would save us money. Hindsight is 20/20. I didn't picture myself spending/hoarding so much in the past year and my loyalty to Costco could change. I don't mind shopping where it is cheapest and Sams Club could win me over just like Wal-Mart's pricing has. Target may have cleaner stores than Wal-Mart, but the prices are higher. Price is all that matters to me and all that has ever mattered. I'm clearly not there to impress my fellow shoppers.

    Further, I'm an expensive restaurant's worst nightmare. I could afford to eat at fine dining places but I actually prefer a cheeseburger, fries, and a shake in a relaxed informal environment. I do not require someone to bring my food to me in order to be happy. Further, having someone bring it to me isn't generally worth 15-20% (what I tip) of the bill to me, not as long as I've got two feet of my own. That's especially true if the overall bill exceeds $50. Heck, for $10 (20% of $50) I'd even wash my own dishes afterwards. No joke. It couldn't take more than 5 minutes. That's a $120 hourly rate. In fact, I'd come out of retirement to wash dishes for $120 an hour. Let's hope that doesn't become a reality if inflation picks up at some point.

    Speaking of inflation...

    I see a sale on TIPs. Hence the aversion of the herd.

    Marc Faber of GloomBoomDoom was just on Bloomberg. He sees short-term deflation then we're back to the inflationary races. He likes gold but thinks it might fall further as deflation continues to set in. I agree and have agreed with this very theory. I switched to inflation neutral in the short-term many months ago. I never changed my long-term inflation outlook. Although painful in the short-term I continue to stick with my stagflationary name.

    In 2007, just after the first credit crisis, I thought it was close to a "sure thing" to start an Illusion of Prosperity blog. I see very little reason to continue it though. Most people see through the illusion now.

    In 2008, with 3% real yields on TIPS, I think it might be close to a "sure thing" to start an Illusion of Safety blog, since people have switched from a prosperity outlook to one of abject terror, lol.

    I'd start with the popular notion that inflation will average just 1.09% over the next 30 years.

    http://www.bloomberg.com/markets/rates/index.html

    30-YEAR BOND: 4.07%
    30-YEAR TIPS: 2.98%

    1.09% difference

    What possible upside can there be to 30-YEAR non-inflation protected treasury bonds right now? 20+ years of bond appreciation (falling interest rates) has seen people lining up at the door to buy more though. People lined up at the door to buy stocks and real estate too. That didn't work out so well, using the power of hindsight.

    It makes me want to offer my own definition of optimism.

    Investment Optimism: When you require the best case scenario just to get your inflation adjusted principal back.

    That being said, I'm still optimistic on toilet paper investing. Barring the burning of my house, the rolls of inflation adjusted principal will end up in the septic tank someday, lol.

    ReplyDelete
  31. Stag,

    http://www.minneapolisfed.org/research/WP/WP666.pdf

    The above link is interesting. I think the TARP and the Fed's alphabet soup lending facilities are attempts at keeping the illusion alive - that a finance economy provides wealth for all. Totally bogus. I've studied the flow of funds reports. We had higher, more realistic and more sustainable growth when finance was 10% of the eCONomy, not 30% (based on profits and equity market caps).

    The bad actors and phony economic theories need to be exposed - especially the Fed and the Treasury. We produce an abundance of wealth. Your farm productivity posts prove that. The distribution is sickening though. And it's not sour grapes for me either. I have plenty. The corruption, cronyism, fraud and lies bug me to no end. I really feel that by disenfranchising the middle class via financial shams, we will weaken the country, perhaps forever. People know they have been swindled. They just don't quite know how.

    ReplyDelete
  32. MAB,

    We had higher, more realistic and more sustainable growth when finance was 10% of the eCONomy, not 30% (based on profits and equity market caps).

    I'm a big fan of extrapolation to prove a theory.

    If 100% of the economy was farming based, we'd all be farmers. There'd be plenty of food to eat. In the distant past, this was shown to be sustainable.

    If 100% of the economy was finance based, we'd all be bankers. There wouldn't be much food to eat. I don't think the distant future would show this to be sustainable.

    I suppose the good news is that the 30% seems to be coming down these days. The bad news is that it is trying to turn negative. Banking is currently like boating. It's a hole in the water you pour money into.

    UK recession is here to stay, experts warn
    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/3259483/UK-recession-is-here-to-stay-experts-warn.html

    The flow of bad news seemed inexorable. The pound fell to its lowest level against the dollar in five years, carmakers signalled a return to the 1970s after reintroducing the three-day week and retailers braced themselves for the worst Christmas in more than a decade. All of that against a backdrop of soaring government spending and dwindling tax receipts.

    1970s for the win.

    “This is a once-in-a-lifetime crisis, and possibly the largest financial crisis of its kind in human history,” Bank of England Deputy Governor Charlie Bean told the Scarborough Evening News.

    Other than that Mrs. Lincoln, did you enjoy the play?

    Commentators are prepared for the worst. “The UK may well experience a recession that is significantly deeper than we had expected,” said Philip Shaw, chief economist at Investec.

    I'm still waiting for one reasonable explanation on why the economy will get better at some point. What's going to grow our way out of our mess? Automation? Been there, done that. Housing? Already got some you see. Space exploration? Yeah, once we figure out how to pay for crumbling bridges and infrastructure I suppose. Even cheaper labor? Seems unlikely, the third world is already doing the work for us.

    Japan's been waiting for decades for similar explanations (ever since their housing markets turned belly up).

    So far we've been able to rule out this fabled second half of year recovery. It is coming in SO weak that even the optimists can't predict a first half of next year recovery with a straight face. I guess they figure we'll still be licking our Christmas wounds.

    ReplyDelete
  33. Stag,

    Japan's been waiting for decades for similar explanations (ever since their housing markets turned belly up).

    It's hard to be a real estate or stock market bull after you see what happened in Japan. Really hard.

    Japan's experience definitely makes you question the "common wisdom" that stocks and real estate always go up in the long run. If that common wisdom were indeed true, investing would be simple and everyone would be buying stocks and real estate. Oops! Everyone was/is investing based on that common wisdom. Woah! I think I see a glitch in the common wisdom. There is now nobody to sell the over-vlaued assets too, lol.

    I don't mean to be a grave dancer, but could this really have turned out any other way?

    To me, the worst part of it all is the record high household debt levels. How do you sweep that under the rug?

    ReplyDelete
  34. MAB,

    It's hard to be a real estate or stock market bull after you see what happened in Japan. Really hard.

    I don't mean to be a grave dancer, but could this really have turned out any other way?

    Using leverage, expectations of grave dancing are now running at 100.60%. That's rather unprecedented in modern (financially innovative) times.

    http://www.bloomberg.com/markets/rates/index.html

    5-YEAR Treasury: 2.60%
    5-YEAR TIPS: 3.20%

    Expected annual inflation over the next 5 years: -0.60%

    This isn't just people abandoning long-term investments. If it was then both 5-YEAR investments would be sold off equally and therefore inflation expectations would not be dropping.

    Based on what the markets are saying, welcome to Japan.

    Japanese Proverbs
    http://en.wikiquote.org/wiki/Japanese_proverbs

    Shimen soka!

    That being said, let's go back to January 2, 2003. We weren't all that happy back then either. Bernanke just gave his famous deflation speech (November, 2002).

    5-YEAR Treasury: 3.05%
    5-YEAR TIPS: 1.75%

    Expected annual inflation : 1.30%

    Actual annual inflation using hindsight: 3.00%

    Oops. Not quite as much deflation as was expected. A lot clearly happened in the last 5 years. It was certainly more than one might have expected. We managed to sneak not one but two commodity bubbles in there. I wonder if we'll be willing to sneak a few more in during the next 5 years once people begin to redeploy their capital into this brave new world. Who knows! I'm keeping the disco ball out just in case though.

    Source Data:

    http://www.bloomberg.com/markets/rates/index.html

    http://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h15/data.htm

    http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/CPIAUCNS

    ReplyDelete
  35. I wonder if we'll be willing to sneak a few more in during the next 5 years once people begin to redeploy their capital into this brave new world.

    I'm just waiting for the Asians to start deploying their treasury hoards on themselves. I have a feeling the next bubble may result in immediate pain for the U.S. - during the bubble inflation phase, not the deflation phase.

    Consider, oil prices have fallen off a cliff, but oil demand has not. If I had to pick the next boom, it would be in internal Chinese demand. Big savers with big needs. Seems to make sense. Just a guess of course.

    ReplyDelete
  36. MAB,

    I have a feeling the next bubble may result in immediate pain for the U.S. - during the bubble inflation phase, not the deflation phase.

    I've been giving real yields quite a bit of thought today as it applies to deflation and inflation.

    Generally, the yield on the 5-YEAR TIPS should never be lower than the yield on the 5-YEAR non-inflation protected counterpart. Here's why.

    TIPS do have some deflation protection. They always pay at least face value. During deflation, that's absolutely no different than non-inflation protected treasuries.

    TIPS have the added bonus in that they also offer inflation protection. Insurance SHOULD cost you something. In this particular case, you are paid to take it. I wish my homeowner insurance worked that way. I'd take an infinite amount of fire protection, lol.

    So which would you prefer? 2.6% with no inflation protection or 3.2% with inflation protection and deflation protection. Call me silly, but I'd prefer the latter.

    Since TIPS now yield more than their non-inflation protected counterparts, this Illusion of Safety blog idea seemingly has merit, lol.

    I'm not the only one to see the value of TIPS right now. Greg Mankiw must be pulling hair.

    Deflation?
    http://gregmankiw.blogspot.com/2008/10/deflation_05.html

    That is, in a period of substantial inflation uncertainty (e.g., now), TIPS are an attractive bet. You get inflation protection if prices rise, but you get your full nominal principal back at maturity if prices fall.

    If anyone really thinks that investors will continue to prefer getting less interest without inflation protection going forward, then I feel for the next president. He needs to guide the ship through the straight-jackets of insanity. As shown time and time again, momentum investing only works until it doesn't.

    There is one flaw in my thinking though. It is the use of the word generally. This argument only applies to those who buy TIPS directly in an auction and hold until maturity. If you buy TIPS from someone else after they had run up in price, some of that deflation protection is gone (you simply overpaid and the guy you bought them from isn't going to reimburse you).

    That being said, there is still deflation protection though. If the economy is as bad as the current thinking imagines, then the 20-YEAR TIPS I bought earlier this year will have plenty of deflation protection. It isn't like the unwinding of 9 months worth of inflation is going to ruin me (any more than the 9 months of winding actually helped me). I doubt seriously I'll need that deflation insurance policy though.

    I can't wait until the next TIPS auction. Making money off of money, in a low tax environment no less (since I won't be taxed on the inflationary gains if there's really no inflation), wasn't supposed to happen. In the long run, I really don't think it will continue. That applies even if we get Japan's deflationary curse, and especially if we don't!

    3% real yield with deflation protection AND inflation protection in this environment? Sign me up.

    There is one other flaw in my thinking. What if the government defaults? I do have some concern over that but it is an entirely different topic.

    Non-inflation protected treasury buyers certainly don't seem to factor default in much.

    I see three ways to default. One is simply not paying. That's tough politically. The other is taxing the gains to the point there aren't any. That's slightly easier. The last is inflation. That's easiest. Unlike my daring deflationary counterparts buying non-inflation protected treasuries, I'm only willing to take on two of the three risks. In sharp contrast, they are willing to embrace them all.

    And lastly, since there are non-intuitive flaws in my thinking (as seen above), then it also stands to reason that there are non-intuitive flaws in using TIPS to predict exact inflation expectations. That deflation protection that they offer seriously muddies their deflation predictive powers. In other words, if we were to get 10% Great Depression style deflation, TIPS could really not predict it ahead of time. With their deflation protection, TIPS would be almost as good as cash (which would not be true without the deflation protection).

    I think this has serious consequences, especially as it applies to the -0.6% deflation prediction they are currently offering. The market could be trying to predict something much worse than that. I hope Bernanke is factoring it in. If not, goodbye Great Studier of the Great Depression. Nice knowin' ya.

    ReplyDelete
  37. Stag,

    A couple of thoughts regarding TIPs.

    First, in my view, TIPs currently seem like a much better long term buy than their non-inflation protected counterparts. How can "getting paid" for insurance not be a better value.

    Anyhow, I suspect many of the recent Treasury buyers are not long term investors. Frightened and directionless sheeple is more likely. Imagine being a short term ivestor in this environment. Your thoughts would change daily. Maybe hourly. That can't work for most, if any.

    Second, another possible reason TIP yields have risen (apart from deflation worries) is that the Gov't is now guaranteeing bank yields (among other things)up to 250K. Right now, short term CDs are sporting 3 to 4% guaranteed returns. Why take any deflation risk on an existing 5 year TIP when you can get a higher guaranteed return with a similar liquidity profile? I'd call that an unintended consequence.

    Your situation is unique. You're not looking to get richer, just maintain purchasing power. That makes things easier for you than most. The majority have spent too much and saved too little. They need the big gains wall street and the system have promised. Most will be disappointed.

    Your TIP plan seems valid - matching future expenses with guananteed real returns. That said, I wouldn't go all in. Unknown unknowns. The market can be stupid for long periods of time and unforeseen events happen. Hence the need for insurance. If I had it made in the shade, I'd keep a few years worth of laddered cash in government guaranteed investments outside of TIPs. Short term peace of mind has value too. Either way, It seems very likely your future financial situation will be better than most.

    ReplyDelete
  38. MAB,

    I'd call that an unintended consequence.

    Yeah, that's certainly true. Another unintended consequence could eventually end up being higher interest rates thanks to the increased supply of bonds at the treasury auctions.

    That has me a bit concerned. Real rates of return are generally quite high on junk bonds, right up until the point you don't get paid back at all.

    Further, it's almost like the government has to take on more debt each time it prints more money. It's also almost like too much debt is what eventually makes the "junk" in bonds show up. Ah, who am I kidding? It is exactly like that.

    How do we get this country out of a debt problem? Take on more debt of course! It is just what the doctor ordered.

    http://health.usnews.com/articles/health/healthday/2008/10/28/medical-debt-sending-many-over-financial-brink.html

    A Kaiser Family Foundation poll conducted in April, way ahead of the current economic meltdown, found that 28 percent of Americans reported that they or their families had had a serious problem paying health insurance or medical bills because of changes in the economy.

    Based on my math, 72% (100% - 28%) WAS the absolute maximum sustainable safe home ownership rate. That rate was established way ahead of the current economic meltdown though. D'oh!

    And data from the Commonwealth Fund puts 41 percent of working-age adults -- 72 million people -- as having medical debt or having a problem paying medical bills, up from 34 percent -- or 58 million people -- in 2005.

    I'm tempted to think 59% (100% - 41%) is the current "safe" rate, unless we miraculously get healthier as we age.

    In other news, I see the Dow and S&P 500 have rebounded back to my capitulation point. You'd think today's 10% increases would do a bit more than that. It's been a rough couple of weeks though. Sorry Nasdaq, you're still lagging behind.

    You must therefore forgive me if I yawn through this latest prosperity blitzkrieg. The economy is pulling a Jerry.

    The Opposite
    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Opposite

    Jerry regularly "breaks even", striking the medium between his two friends, earning him the nickname, "Even Steven."

    I offer the following advice for George (Bush).

    George upon visiting the beach, (where many of the characters are seen having a major revelation), decides that every decision that he has ever made has been wrong, and that his life is the exact opposite of what it should be. Later, at Monk’s Café with the gang, he tells Jerry this, who convinces him that “if every instinct you have is wrong, then the opposite would have to be right”. George then resolves to start doing the complete opposite of what he would do normally. He suddenly begins to experience good luck, getting a girlfriend, moving out of his parents' house, and even landing a job with the New York Yankees.

    ReplyDelete
  39. How do we get this country out of a debt problem? Take on more debt of course!

    Hey, where else can people come up with the interest payments on their debts? We don't do as much actual work around here anymore.

    Another unintended consequence could eventually end up being higher interest rates thanks to the increased supply of bonds at the treasury auctions

    FWIW, intermediate and long term investment grade corporate debt is yielding over 7%. Up from ~ 5% a short while ago.

    It seems to me there are limits to debt in an economy. I think we are going where no American economy has ever gone before.

    So far I haven't heard of any outright money printing though. It's all debt with interest. Just what we need. More interest payments. Good grief.

    Here's some quick numbers from the 2008 Q2 flow of funds.

    Household Debt: 14.5 T
    Disposable Personal income: 11 T

    Debt to income: 14.5T/11T = 131%

    At 8%, interest on HH debt:
    8%x14.5= 1.16 T

    Sure hope employment holds. Better yet, I hope everyone gets a big fat raise.

    1.16T/11T = 10.5% of disposable personal income.

    Don't worry about paying off the principal, the collateral will increase in value. Always has, always will - no matter what the debt level.

    I don't see how households can take on more debt and pay more interest. The wealthy don't want debt and the majority can't afford more debt - literally. Especially with falling asset prices.

    I guess we really do need the government to bail us out. But wait, doesn't the private sector fund the government?

    To me it seems like any increase in Government debt adds more interest without adding output. How is that going to help?

    I think we need less debt, not more. But what do I know.

    I can't wait to see the "output" produced by all this new debt. I'm sure it will exceed the cost of capital.

    Maybe we are just trying too hard. Diminishing returns. Negative returns actually. Everyone is working, but most are getting poorer. No wonder you retired. Quit while your ahead.

    Maybe we should try a 4 day work week. Nah, better make it three, we're in a deep hole here.

    ReplyDelete
  40. MAB,

    Here's some quick numbers from the 2008 Q2 flow of funds.

    The wealthy don't want debt and the majority can't afford more debt - literally. Especially with falling asset prices.

    Too bad the Flow of Funds doesn't care much about income inequality. That tends to get lost in averages.

    Picture an economy with just two people in it. One loans. The other borrows. The average situation always looks pretty good. Any pain experienced by the borrower is offset by the pleasure experienced by the lender.

    That economy would have no problem growing exponentially. All it would require is debt being piled onto the borrower exponentially. I think that's the economy Hard to Spot Bubbles Greenspan and No Housing Bubble to Go Bust Bernanke had been watching. Looks great on paper. Bubbles can't happen. The lending and borrowing are always perfectly balanced.

    However, that doesn't sound so sustainable come to think of it. It makes me think of parabolas. I think I have a solution though.

    There needs to be an unbiased second lender that could print Flow of Funds reports and bail out the first lender as he ultimately fails. This is a bit tricky though. Where does this third lender get the money? I'm thinking he could just print it as need be. We can't very well have him tax the borrower and/or lender. That would just make them fail faster.

    That might work. At some point I'd probably want to introduce a third lender for additional stability. Let's make him a Chinese person, in the name of diversity. Further, let's make him relatively poor. If our model can surive that level of stress-testing, it can probably survive anything.

    I'm not done yet though. Let's split up that borrower into 7ths. That way we can laugh when the California part slides off into the ocean. We'll laugh in a Jack Handey kind of way though.

    Dad always thought laughter was the best medicine, which I guess is why several of us died of tuberculosis. - Jack Handey

    Deeper into debt
    http://www.andersonvalleypost.com/news/2008/oct/29/deeper-into-debt/

    The state of California is up to its eyebrows in debt already. We should not be adding to the debt, especially in this year when the economy of California and the whole nation seems to be going down the toilet. The whole system seems to have broken down and gone into the sewer. People, companies and governments are bankrupt.

    Got toilet paper?

    I'm drenched in sarcasm today it seems. At least I hope it is sarcasm. If it is realism, we're all quite doomed.

    ReplyDelete
  41. The “Real” Story About Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS)
    http://www.geam.com/common/newsdocs/wp_summer2005.pdf

    Figure 5 - When to Buy TIPS

    Inflation Down, Growth Up (Productivity Miracle) - SELL

    Inflation Up, Growth Down (Stagflation) - BUY

    Inflation Up, Growth Up (Growth Inflation) - Monetary Policy Drives Call

    Inflation Down, Growth Down (Recession Disinflation) - Monetary Policy Drives Call

    Thanks Bernanke for driving the call. This stagflationary guy has been beaten up pretty good waiting on you, but I did manage to keep the (lack of) faith.

    US RATE FUTURES-Bracing for another rate cut in December
    http://www.reuters.com/article/marketsNews/idUSN2953964820081029

    Commentary from the Federal Open Market Committee about "downside risks to growth" suggested the central bank does not see its rate-cutting work as over now that rates are at the lowest since 2004.

    The FOMC said that the pace of economic activity has "slowed markedly" as consumer spending falls, and that financial market turmoil could make things worse by stifling access to credit by households and businesses.

    "We view this as the first entirely realistic assessment from the Fed in this whole cycle," said Ian Shepherdson, chief U.S. economist at High Frequency Economics in Valhalla, New York. "The door is open to further easing."


    Welcome to 2004. If only we knew what might come next.

    Oil and commodities rally as dollar falls sharply
    http://www.reuters.com/article/hotStocksNews/idUSTRE49S8PI20081029

    Spurred by a tumbling dollar, the Reuters-Jefferies CRB commodities index .CRB surged 5.91 percent in its biggest daily percentage gain since it was created five decades ago.

    Wow. Yet another record smashed as we continue to grope our way into uncharted territory.

    I wonder how many automated 3,650 day (10-YEAR) forward-looking inflation expectation computer models broke today. 3,649 days to go.

    ReplyDelete
  42. Stag,

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Human_shields

    Looks like the bankers took a page out of Saddam's book. "Don't attack us or you'll obliterate all these innocents."

    It's even worse when you consider that bankers demanded (and received) a tribute.

    I think tax receipts will be way down this year and not just because the eCONomy is in the tank. I'm guessing a lot of people are so "fed" up that they just won't pay. Or if they do pay, they'll get real creative.

    What a sham(e).

    ReplyDelete
  43. I wonder how many automated 3,650 day (10-YEAR) forward-looking inflation expectation computer models broke today.

    I'm guessing all of them were broken today. If it hasn't happened, it can't happen - at least that's how the models are constructed.

    Regarding TIPS. That rear view mirror doens't look to far into the past with TIPS. That makes it harder to figure how investors will react with regard to TIPS in the future. That said, as a long term holding, a 3% real yield with inflation protection and a gov't backing looks compelling. I'm sure a lot of Japanese investors wish they had 3% long term real yields over the past 20 years despite a non-inflationary, low growth environment.

    Q: How do you say "they stole my kidney" in Japanese?

    A: Stocks for the long run.

    ReplyDelete
  44. MAB,

    I'm guessing all of them were broken today. If it hasn't happened, it can't happen - at least that's how the models are constructed.

    Regarding TIPS. That rear view mirror doens't look to far into the past with TIPS. That makes it harder to figure how investors will react with regard to TIPS in the future.


    That's one reason I really like TIPS. The rear view mirror is both broken AND missing, lol. That being said, one can reconstruct a decent rear view mirror of what should have happened (using hindsight) based on how normal treasuries have held up over the years.

    In my opinion, the high real returns in the 1980s and 1990s were not the rule, but the exception. Based on the following charts, locking in a 2% real rate is something I'm more than willing to do. 3% just makes me salivate. I'm not even remotely tempted to sell what I have.

    Real Interest Rates
    http://illusionofprosperity.blogspot.com/2007/11/real-interest-rates.html

    I think I've made a fairly decent case in the "Real 1-Year Treasury Yield" chart that 2% is the typical safe real return even if one is feeling pretty good about the economy going forward. If one is feeling pretty bad about the economy, one need only look to the 1970s and mid-2000s and... cringe. I'm confident that a determined government can really debauch its currency, and our government is especially determined these days.

    Of course, I could be wrong. The Great Depression isn't on the chart. Let's assume Great Depression pricing really did appear though. Why would I complain if I lost 8% per year on inflation protected investments if overall prices became 10% cheaper per year? I'd still be growing relatively richer, in a perverse sense. As an added bonus, I'd be doing even better than that though. First, TIPS still have some deflation protection, which I am confident is no doubt lost on many short-term TIPS investors/traders (especially the ones who title their yahoo posts "D.E.F.L.A.T.I.O.N.", maximizing use of caps and punctuation). Second, we pay capital gains taxes. We don't pay capital loss taxes. The 2% real return would therefore be pretty much tax free. That situation is much better for me than what a repeat of the 1970s would do (the very case that I'm somewhat protected against). I must admit that nominal pricing does affect me irrationally though. I've been feeling that loss lately as prices have fallen. I should be rejoicing but I'm not. Very odd what the lack of inflation does to one's mood.

    That tax man scares me more than anyone. Take housing. I bought a house in 1997. I'm told it has gone up in value. I scoff. It is the same house. We sometimes talk of pricing things in gold. Maybe we should talk of pricing things in houses. My house is still worth exactly one house when priced in houses. It is the same house I bought. It is worth no more to me personally than it was when I originally bought it. I do not value it any more than I did 10 years ago. Things might be different if houses could breed though. I could be doing a lot better, assuming I bought two of opposite genders 10 years ago, lol.

    Looks a lot like inflation to me. If I sell it, then I'm taxed on the profit. That's a nominal profit brought on by inflation though. There should be very little real profit, once inflation is factored in. The government doesn't care about that though. They want their cut in nominal terms, and so do the real estate agents. The government and NAR make a powerful combo.

    I'm also never been a big believer in the theory we're running out of land. In general, this is a big country and we aren't all that densely populated. There's plenty of land in the small farming town I grew up in. There's also fewer people. You'd think, based on simple economics, that the "real" prices would be lower than when I grew up.

    Meanwhile, while I own the property I also get to pay 1% property taxes per year (in addition to the money spent simply to maintain my house in its current condition and insure it, which is not a trivial amount).

    I'd be best off in the long-term if the price of my house stopped going up. Maybe others would too. If people really were getting richer, then why were they forced to sell their homes and downsize due to rising property taxes forcing them out? Once again returning to the priced in houses argument, you aren't really richer if you need to exchange one house for 6/10ths of a house, pay 1/10th of a house in real estate transaction costs, and pay 1/10th of a house in capital gains taxes. That's just a crazy theory of mine, based on what we're told.

    The biggest sham(e) of all is how we got this notion that housing would be our next prosperity generating machine.

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/David_Lereah

    ReplyDelete
  45. I think I've made a fairly decent case in the "Real 1-Year Treasury Yield" chart that 2% is the typical safe real return even if one is feeling pretty good about the economy going forward

    I agree. In aggregate, we can't take out more than we earn. It's just not possible. Going forward, real long term growth above 3% looks unrealistic to me.

    For numerous reasons (bigger gov't, aging population, diminishing work ethic, pervasive free lunch attitude, etc.), I think the U.S. will have below trend (2.5%) real growth going forward. In fact I'm expecting below trend real growth well into the future. However, I'm not sure my portfolio is prepared for low real growth, but high nominal growth. I think that situation would really hurt me. I think in the future, investors will kick themselves for NOT locking in the 3% real returns on TIPs. But, hey, the herd doesn't like to buy things when they are on sale.

    A few thoughts:

    I've looked at our past economic history (NIPA tables, Flow of Funds accounts, etc.). I'm very uncomfortable with the household debt level. Our current wealth and income concentrations only make household debt levels even more alarming. If you remove the huge run up in household debt over the last decade, we've actually had negative real growth for years. That's what I see all around me - people are not better off. Now that doesn't necessarily mean we won't grow in the future, but mistakes have to be paid for.

    There are a numerous theories on what ended the Great Depresion - New Deal, WW2, etc. My personal belief is that the household debt levels got so low by 1945 (end of the war) that real savings and population growth powered our economy forward into the 1960s. Also, stock valuations were historically low at that time. A stock market boom was about as close to a sure thing investment as you could ever find in history. Today's situation is drastically different. I haven't heard one single well reasoned bull case. It's all pollyanna, rear view mirror wall street sales crap. The only bullish event has been the recent stock market crash.

    Despite all the rhetoric, the current government debt level (as a percentage of GDP) is actually low. In that light, I think the government can and will increase its borrowing substantially. But using that borrowing to preserve bad debts seems unproductive - it's so Japan.

    Stocks, commodities, bonds, real estate and cash. Is the re-flation successful and if so where do the re-flation dollars flow?

    ReplyDelete
  46. MAB,

    The only bullish event has been the recent stock market crash.

    Yeah, I think we're pretty much on the same page here. It is certainly bullish to beat something up to the point it finally has some value. It doesn't make me want to jump up and down with glee though and would seemingly make a very shaky foundation for long-term prosperity arguments. It's the "times can only get better because how much worse can they possibly get" investment theory.

    Since this blog has been my therapy, I thought I'd share how my day has gone.

    I had an appointment to see my eye doctor. To put it simply, I've got acne of the eyelid. Never had that before. It has required one minor surgery so far, which only partially helped. I have tend to get acne when I'm stressed in the past. I therefore think it is safe to say I am somewhat stressed now.

    While waiting to see the doctor (long wait), I read a recent a fairly long article about Ben Bernanke concerning his dream to fend off the next depression. Needless to say, reading that did not help my stress levels any. I remember a time, just a few years ago, when Great Depressions were a pipe dream.

    I could never understand why someone would willingly wish to captain the Titanic. Now I know. He wants to prove his theories on the Great Depression are correct. I suspect they may be (or I wouldn't be a stagflationist), but there will also be unintended consequences (or I wouldn't be a stagflationist).

    Next up. I drove to Bartell Drugs to fill my eye prescription. On the way there I stopped to get a double hamburger from the dollar menu. Big spender. ;)

    Unfortunately, I also listened to the endless reams of negative political ads on the radio. While getting my prescription filled I dropped into QFC to do a bit of food bargain hunting now that deflation has set in with a vengeance. However, I found very little deflation. Go figure.

    I browsed the cookies. Cookies relieve stress. Right? There was a sign. It said that QFC apologizes that these will be the last Mothers cookies available for sale. The company has shut its doors. Good grief. Further, the remaining cookies were not on sale. Is that supposed to be this massive deflation people speak of? That's not how it works in my world. So much for cookies relieving stress.

    Mother's Cookies abruptly shut down
    http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/c/a/2008/10/09/BU6413DQQO.DTL

    Taffy. That's what I decided on. It's fat-free. Not much harm in a couple of pieces of that, especially after gorging myself on a single burger (no fries or shake).

    Picture the scene. I'm sitting in my car. It's relatively dark. The radio is off. I'm finally entering a state of semi-relaxation. Breathe-in, breathe-out. I take my first bite of taffy. It's exactly as I remember it. Yum.

    Hold on. Something's not right. Why is it crunchy? Good grief. That's my gold crown! Gold? Bah! I wanted to take my mind off of gold.

    So what was my next thought, as I held both taffy and my own gold crown in my hands?

    They really need to make taffy shaped like kidneys these days. We're going to Candy Mountain I tell you!!

    What a day this Halloween Eve has been.

    Based on the action in the stock market lately, wealth is being redistributed on a grand scale.

    Which of the following is the better economy going forward.

    1. Everyone is doing rather okay and things are somewhat predictable.
    2. Half the people are doing REALLY well as they bet on the market's actions. Half the people are doing REALLY poorly as they bet on the market's actions. Things are not even remotely predictable.

    It seems we're going #2. Got toilet paper? The problem with #2 is that "everyone" still needs to make house payments.

    Picture two neighbors with two big mortgages. Picture them both just barely being able to make ends meet. What are the odds of both mortgages are eventually paid off in full?

    Now picture those two neighbors betting big sums of leveraged money with each other. Now what are the odds both mortgage loans get paid off in full? I would argue that the odds have gone down significantly.

    Speaking of losers...

    Boone Pickens' Capital Funds Down; Investors Withdrawing Money
    http://seekingalpha.com/article/102587-boone-pickens-capital-funds-down-investors-withdrawing-money

    We first got word of Boone's poor performance towards the end of September, when we noted that his equities fund was -30% through August, and his commodities fund was -84% through the same period. In his recent appearance on "60 Minutes," Boone noted that he and his firm had lost around $2 billion since the peak in June. In addition, in a recent Wall Street Journal article, they note that nearly 50% of investors are withdrawing their money from the fund, which has seen losses of nearly 60% now. They also noted that Boone moved nearly everything into cash a few weeks ago, to protect the funds from further downside risk.

    ReplyDelete
  47. Stag,

    This is the letter I sent to Senator McCain prior to the vote on the $700 baillout. He sent me a bogus response justifying the need "to do something" That "something" is a moving target.


    Senator McCain,

    I'm an American citizen. Nobody of great significance. A pea in a pod so to speak. I have never written to an elected official before, but feel compelled to do so now.
    Let me start off by saying that I sincerely admire your past and present service to our country. You of all people recognize that the easy and expedient path is not necessarily the best path. That said, our country is at an inflection point in history.

    Currently, Congress is debating a massive $700 billion bailout of our nation's financial system. I strongly feel that a bailout, in any form, is wrong and harmful to our country on both economic and moral grounds.

    Economically, the bailout has no merit. Our current system for dealing with insolvency is far more efficient and sensible than a bailout. The notion that the entire financial system would fail seems far fetched. Especially if one looks at the underlying capital structure of equity and bond holder value in financial institutions.
    If a financial institution becomes insolvent, common and preferred shareholders take losses first, followed by bond holders. A substantial bondholder cushion exists to prevent losses from spreading beyond the insolvent institution. In the event of a bankruptcy, many choices are available to remaining stakeholders. Assets can be sold of course. Or, remaining bondholder value can be converted to stock equity in a re-organized entity. Many combinations of the above are also viable options. Obviously this process is financially painful, but it works. Consider the recent failures of Lehman Brothers, Indy Mac, and Washington Mutual. Investors incurred loses, but the taxpayer did not. This cannot be said of the Bear Stearns failure. Even the near collapse of Merrill Lynch was solved by free market processes. If the federal government does get involved, it should only be after equity and bond holder value has been exhausted. The AIG deal approached, but did not meet this threshold.

    Many of the assets held by banks are unpayable mortgage obligations. These unpayable obligations are at the heart of the financial crisis. I do not see our economy returning to potential until this burden of unpayable debts is resolved. Resolution via loan work-outs or outright defaults are the best options. Foreclosures, while sad, are necessary. The sooner the better. Perpetuating bad debts will only perpetuate economic malaise as scarce capital is locked up in unproductive mortgage debt. Any government involvement should be limited to speeding this process along. This path is extremely unpopular as it will force financial institutions, investors and borrowers to recognize losses. The bailout is nothing but a measure to allow investors and financial institutions to escape from their necessary participation in this painful process.

    Morally, a bailout has the potential to change our country forever. In a free market, profits and losses accrue to investors. A bailout would turn this fundamental tenet of free markets upside down by allowing the privatization of gains and the socialization of losses. Equally disturbing, is that the beneficiaries of a bailout would overwhelmingly be the wealthy. The majority of the wealth in our country is held by a small minority. In round numbers, the richest 1% own 60% of the wealth. The richest 10% own 80% of the wealth. A bailout of the wealthy on the backs of taxpayers will forever create a class divide. How will we ever say no to ANY proposed fiscal spending following a historic and immense bailout of the wealthy? Such a bailout will surely bring us closer to socialism. I just don't think our constitutional freedoms are worth expediency or welfare for the wealthy. The real crisis at hand is not the financial losses at stake, rather, it is the negative effects a bailout will have on our freedoms and liberty in the future.

    Senator McCain, I implore you to vigorously and openly oppose any bailout and allow our free markets more time to work. Any short term gains garnered from an expedient bailout are certain to be lost in the longer term.

    One last thought. Do you really believe we can become more prosperous by thwarting the free markets? If so, then you will no doubt welcome the ever increasing interference in our markets and private lives that will follow a bailout.

    God Bless America,

    ReplyDelete
  48. MAB,

    Do you really believe we can become more prosperous by thwarting the free markets?

    Thwarting the free markets sounds a lot like reform. I refer you to the State of Washington Voter's Pamphlet. Here are two sentences from McCain's candidate statement (2 out of just 14).

    I will continue to put our country first by ushering in a new era of reform, prosperity and peace.

    I will put an agenda of reform, prosperity and peace for America before any partisan interest or special interest.

    I now have the ultimate blog naming remorse. If I had it all to do over again my blog would be titled...

    Illusion of Reform, Prosperity and Peace

    He's nothing like George W. Bush though. Yeah, right.

    See, in my line of work you got to keep repeating things over and over and over again for the truth to sink in, to kind of catapult the propaganda.- George W. Bush, May 24, 2005

    Here's a sampling of another three sentences of the statement (bringing the total to 5 out of 14).

    In war and peace...

    ...with a safer, more peaceful world...

    ...a stable and enduring peace...

    That's a lot of peace talk (more than 1/3rd of the sentences included peace) from the 100-year war guy.

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VFknKVjuyNk

    I think I saw this on a college aptitude test once.

    Fill in the missing part.

    Reform = $700 Billion Bailout
    Prosperity = ?
    Peace = 100-Year War

    A. Long-Term Social Security Solvency
    B. Long-Term Medicare Solvency
    C. Long-Term Median Standard of Living Decline
    D. Long-Term Trade Deficit Stability

    It's extremely difficult to predict the future but my gut says to go with C, assuming that reform equals bailouts and peace equals war that is.

    In other news, I was talking to my older neighbor yesterday. I asked how the economy was treating him. He said he's forced to sell some of his IRA. I responded that as retirees, we do need money to eat. He said that wasn't it. He's forced to sell because he's actually forced to sell. The government is requiring him to sell part of it based on his age and expected lifespan. I never really thought through the implications of what being forced to sell part of an IRA in a down market would feel like. Now I have. One wonders how many baby boomers will soon experience that (lack of) joy. Seeing as how many baby boomers are beginning to reach the golden years, there are certainly plenty of forced sellers lined up and ready to go.

    He tried to offer me reassuring words about the economy. Said it should recover within 6-8 months. Seeing as how it was Halloween, I told him I've been bearish since 2004 and sold all my stocks then. The market is currently quite a bit lower than when I got out. That's over four years so far and counting. I also mentioned that for a while we had the deflationary debt of the Great Depression combined with the inflationary pressures of the 1970s. It was a balancing act of two wrongs attempting to make a right. Now we seem to be dwelling on the former rather than the latter.

    I think the recovery after the dotcom bust was the most pathetic recovery in American history. First, all we did was borrow it. Imagine what the economy would have done if we couldn't get a loan. Second, the majority of the borrowed money was spent on housing (which does nothing to make us more competitive in the global economy).

    We're now going for recovery #2 using the very same tactics. Only this time, the borrowing is somewhat more difficult (at least so far). Any starship engineer could tell you why. As Scotty once said, "Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice, shame on me."

    http://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h15/data/Weekly_Thursday_/H15_MORTG_NA.txt

    Is it just me, or does it really say 6.46% 30-Year fixed mortgage rate on 10/30/08?

    ReplyDelete
  49. Stag,

    Seeing as how many baby boomers are beginning to reach the golden years, there are certainly plenty of forced sellers lined up and ready to go.

    Perhaps the boomers will get a crash course:

    http://www.chrismartenson.com/crash-course/chapter-14-assets-demographics

    I think the recovery after the dotcom bust was the most pathetic recovery in American history

    I'm not sure there is such a thing as a jobless recovery. It's hard to believe that a productivity miracle in China makes us wealthier. Especially when we borrowed so much to enjoy the benefits of THEIR productivity miracle. Debts are fixed, asset prices ae not.

    Many of our so called assets are actually capital traps. Houses, stocks without free cash flow. What is the boomers' exit strategy from these assets?

    ReplyDelete
  50. MAB,

    That video does a great job connecting the dots between debt, income inequality, and overall NET worth.

    The baby boomer bulge is just insult to injury.

    This goes back to my investment philosophy these days. I don't want my net worth tied up in any asset that requires me to sell to others in order to fund my retirement. That leaves me with roughly two choices.

    1. Toilet paper
    2. Laddered bonds held until maturity

    I've opted for inflation protected bonds as you know. Apparently I'm more paranoid than most.

    The older neighbor who offered me a reassuring outlook on the economy over the next 6-8 months had never heard of inflation protected bonds by the way. He had heard of REITs though, since that's where at least some of his money is parked. He said that the income stream is rather constant. *cringe*

    UPDATE 1-RESEARCH ALERT-Goldman says REITs may cut dividend
    http://www.reuters.com/article/rbssFinancialServicesAndRealEstateNews/idUSBNG35006020081029

    Oct 29 (Reuters) - Goldman Sachs said it expects dividend cuts and asset sales among U.S. real-estate investment trusts (REITs) as they will be forced to conserve capital amid the prospects of a prolonged downturn in credit markets.

    ReplyDelete
  51. Stag,

    I don't want my net worth tied up in any asset that requires me to sell to others in order to fund my retirement.

    Sounds like a good plan. These days, it's not easy to preserve princpal let alone earn a real return. Guaranteed investment contracts really aren't guaranteed. Even money markets and bank deposits are risky. Much of the crisis stems not only from a lack principal, but from a lack of principles (moral and economic). A lot of "investors" are learning about safety the hard way:

    http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601109&sid=aBJ_0ULSgrjY&refer=home

    Real yields are rising. I suppose that makes sense as both credit and actual capital are scarcer than previously thought. Yields on investmemt grade bonds just keep rising - they are NOT following treasuries. Vanguard's Intermediate Investment Grade fund is yielding ~ 7.3%. That's approximately 40% higher than a year or so ago.

    I debated an "economist" over at CR recently. He/she seemed like a good egg. He was very supportive of lower fed fund rates based on the assumption that lower rates would be passed on to the economy and promote growth. I pointed out that every deal has two sides. While low rates are good for borrowers, they are not good for lenders. It's no accident that you, me and others are not freely lending money to the economy at large. I see serious structural problems - record debt levels, fraud, income inequality, demographics, unfunded wars and future spending, tillions in off balance sheet bank "assets." I hate to say it, but this time things really do seem different. But not in a good way.

    Personally, I think the lenders will win the day. Bernanke and the Treasury can bail out banks, but banks (and investors) won't lend to bad credits without adequate rates of return. That seems to be a big flaw in the Paulson plan. That and it bails out a bloated and immoral banking sector. GRRRR!

    Another thought that keeps nagging me. Maybe stocks fell to single digit P/E ratios in the past not so much because investors were wrong, but because all the real capital had been wasted and/or concentrated. Booms and busts go together. I'm not sure we can avoid the full bust that we have so richly earned. Although we are definitely going to try like hell. Some say that sort of effort just makes things worse. Economic quicksand.

    I see a lot of new believers in the same old system. Maybe I could be more bullish if so many were not relying on CONgress, the fed and wall street to fix things.

    Consider: can you really be a contrarian if you are surrounded by so many contrarians? I still see too much hope.

    ReplyDelete
  52. MAB,

    Consider: can you really be a contrarian if you are surrounded by so many contrarians?

    The bottom feeders are lined up out the door and seventeen blocks up the street.

    I still see too much hope.

    The lending vultures are clinging to hope as well. Check out the comment section of this year old post. We just had a nibble on the line and the bobber is jiggling. Bottom feeding season sure requires plenty of patience.

    Payday Loan Center Payback (Musical Tribute)
    http://illusionofprosperity.blogspot.com/2007/09/payday-loan-center-payback-musical.html

    "Cashloancity" had a favorable expericence at cashloancity.com last year.

    "Payday Loans" now has a favorable impression of the payday loan industry.

    Big shockers, huh? It is comforting to know there are still some constants in this highly volatile economy.

    (If you find comfort in sarcasm, that is.)

    ReplyDelete
  53. MAB,

    From your link...

    ``The sales pitches were that it's good for retirement accounts, and good for the safe, fixed-income part of people's portfolios as an alternative to owning stocks, because it's less risky,'' said Seth Lipner, a lawyer in Garden City, New York, hired by two holders of Lehman notes sold by UBS, including a 65- year-old accountant who says he lost $1.4 million in retirement savings. ``Of course, it turned out to be more risky.''

    This economy has plenty of wealth unlocking potential left in it.

    In a related topic, I'm amazed at how many options trading/training commercials are on TV these days. First, unlike stocks (in theory), derivatives require a loser for every winner. Second, should average people really be dabbling in financial weapons of mass destruction (Warren Buffett's description of derivatives)?

    As to the second point, the government won't let us play with lawn darts any longer. It is also a game in which there must be a loser for every winner.

    Lawn darts share another quirk with derivatives trading as well. Not all lawn dart players are responsible lawn dart players. Perhaps that's why lawn darts have been banned. It is actually possible to have two losers and no winners, once one considers counterparty risk.

    Lawn Darts Are Banned and Should Be Destroyed
    http://www.cpsc.gov/CPSCPUB/PREREL/PRHTML97/97122.html

    CPSC urges consumers to discard or destroy all lawn darts immediately. They should not be given away since they may be of harm to others.

    These days, I'm confident that there are billions in underwater derivatives that banks would love to give away (and/or repackaged into deeply complex financial instruments and sold as safe havens).

    Kuwait Gulf Bank, Central Bank Still in Bailout Talks
    http://online.wsj.com/article/SB122562908190491145.html?mod=googlenews_wsj

    DUBAI -- Kuwait's Gulf Bank is still in talks with the country's central bank to agree on the "best options" to bail out the lender which was hit by heavy losses from derivatives trading.

    ReplyDelete
  54. Lawn Darts Are Banned and Should Be Destroyed

    Something had to be done. Way too many people were getting hurt. Do you have any idea how dangerous it is to catch a falling lawn dart?

    ReplyDelete
  55. Hello Gentlemen,

    First let me say you guys scare the beejezus out of me. I can handle the foaming at the mouth bears, but the cool headed depression talk is a lot harder for me to deal with.

    Second, I saw the I-bond rates came out yesterday. The real yield is back in positive territory. Woo-hoo, in relative terms that's like an infinity percentage gain from May. Of course the purchase limit is still $5k so I'm still unconvinced it's a useful tool in one's investment portfolio. But a positive yield is a positive yield, so I thought I'd mention it.

    ReplyDelete
  56. Hello Allanf

    First let me say you guys scare the beejezus out of me. I can handle the foaming at the mouth bears, but the cool headed depression talk is a lot harder for me to deal with.

    First, there will be no depression imo. That said, I think boomers will become known as the "busters" (as all booms are followed by busts). The logical result of spending more than you save. My main worry as a saver is inflation. And right now, inflation has taken a holiday. I'm not optimistic inflation stays on holiday though given all the bailouts being showered on the boomers.

    Second, I thought I'd mention that the mountain biking around Keystone, CO is quite good. The scenery is great too.

    ReplyDelete
  57. What's that old joke -- a recession is when your neighbor loses his job, a depression is when you lose your job. As (mostly) a saver myself, yes my biggest fear is that 70's show: inflation without economic growth.

    I've been a pretty active investor to get me this far (retired or so at 35) and I figure as long as the market is doing something I can keep up one way or another, but in a world with negative growth for real estate, stock earnings, and inflation wiping out bonds (where I've got most of my money), there just ain't any place to store value much less make some juice on the side.

    And I ain't as rich as Stag, so I'd like have to go back to work or something, assuming a job could be found. So yeah, that's a depression in my book. ;-)

    I might be in Denver for Columbus Day next year. If so, I'll keep Keystone in mind. Thanks.

    ReplyDelete
  58. MAB,

    Do you have any idea how dangerous it is to catch a falling lawn dart?

    Falling knives are now "plastic" (credit cards) coated for your safety. Don't let it bother you that the knives can't cut hot butter now. In 10 years it might not matter. Butter might be prohibitively expensive anyway.

    ReplyDelete
  59. AllanF,

    First let me say you guys scare the beejezus out of me. I can handle the foaming at the mouth bears, but the cool headed depression talk is a lot harder for me to deal with.

    Sorry about that. My "End of days, repent!" suit is currently at the dry cleaners. No idea when I'll be getting it back. I think they outsourced the work to China.

    Second, I saw the I-bond rates came out yesterday. The real yield is back in positive territory.

    Just 0.7%? What's up with that? Based on the recent explosion in real rates you'd think they could have gotten it to at least 1%. Next stop... May, 2009 (the next time rates are set). I see no point to buy early next year. If rates plummet again, the current rate is good through April, 2009. If rates go higher, patience will be rewarded. I suspect it might even be a November/December of 2009 purchase for me, possibly followed up with another January of 2010 purchase as well. Time will tell.

    ReplyDelete
  60. MAB,

    Second, I thought I'd mention that the mountain biking around Keystone, CO is quite good. The scenery is great too.

    Yeah, yeah, but how's the candy mountain biking? Inquiring minds want to know!

    ReplyDelete
  61. AllanF,

    And I ain't as rich as Stag...

    If you call spending $20k to $30k annually based on a "real" no-growth economic outlook (as opposed to a hyperinflationary outlook, sigh) and being dead broke by age 100 being rich, then yes, I'm quite well off indeed. ;)

    ...so I'd like have to go back to work or something, assuming a job could be found.

    There are plenty of good jobs still to be found. Perhaps you'd like a high paying job with good growth opportunities that can't be outsourced?

    Members of Congress got 13 percent richer in 2007
    http://www.miamiherald.com/news/politics/AP/story/743962.html

    WASHINGTON -- Times are tough, but don't worry about most members of Congress making ends meet.

    Their collective wealth grew by 13 percent last year, leaving them in better shape than most Americans to make it through an economic downturn, according to a new analysis of personal financial reports.

    ReplyDelete
  62. I have a theory on today's stock market action. The capitulators have uncapitulated. I wonder if this means I should too? I capitulated as a bear based in part on the capitulation of the bulls and now they are taking it back? Dizzying!

    Why Stocks Are Dirt Cheap - Jeremy Siegel
    http://finance.yahoo.com/expert/article/futureinvest/118916

    No one can guarantee the future of the stock market. But I believe that stock prices are now so extraordinarily cheap that I would be very surprised that if an investor who bought a diversified portfolio today did not make at least 20% or more on his investment in the next twelve months.

    Not making 20% returns has become surprising again? Wow.

    I think a reader's comment puts it best.

    This guy said "USA presidential election will be between Hilary Clinton and Julian Guliani" and "Stock market will be 8% up plus any % lost of his 10% up last year (2007)." He was off by a million! How could Yahoo allow this guy to publish articles here?? If you don't believe me, just read his articles at the beginning of 2008. Amazing! - WJC

    If you want really "surprising" though, just check out how Jeremy Siegel's WisdomTree earnings weighted stock funds have done since inception. Oops. That rear view mirror really liked all those juicy banking profits (right before banking profits imploded).

    ReplyDelete
  63. Stag,

    I check out Yahoo! Finance this afternoon just to see how the markets are doing and I read the following headline in big bold blue letters:

    Dow Plunges 400 as Investors Shift Focus to Economy

    This begs a question. What exactly have investors been focusing on for the past decade? Seriously. I really want to know.

    I have a theory on today's stock market action.

    I have theory too. Today we witnessed another classic "long squeeze". It's becoming a common part of the ever popular baby boomer "buy and fold" strategy. You see, according to some experts, people don't need to save as long as they have investments that can be sold in the future at much higher prices. Jeremy Siegel is a big proponent of this strategy. He's become quite (im)famous selling books about it. Lately though, many are questioning Professor Siegel's "wisdom". It seems many have a new strategy - make like a "tree" and leave.

    Personally, I think it is too late for most of the baby boomers. But what do I know, I'm not a renowned investment (pun)dit.

    ReplyDelete
  64. spending $20k to $30k annually... and being dead broke by age 100

    I say why wait to 100 to be dead broke? If you lowered your goal just a little bit and decided to be dead broke by 85 you could probably be spending an extra 5 or 10 large every year.

    ReplyDelete
  65. MAB,

    It's becoming a common part of the ever popular baby boomer "buy and fold" strategy.

    Must....resist....musical....tribute....

    You got to know when to hold em, know when to fold em, know when to walk away and know when to run. You never count your money when youre sittin' at the table. There'll be time enough for countin' when the dealin's done. - The Gambler

    ReplyDelete
  66. AllanF,

    I say why wait to 100 to be dead broke? If you lowered your goal just a little bit and decided to be dead broke by 85 you could probably be spending an extra 5 or 10 large every year.

    Imagine the party I could have if I assumed I'd be dead broke by age 45. In the words of Blackadder's Baldrick, I have a cunning plan.

    1. We convince 700,000 millionaires that they will be dead broke within one year.
    2. We throw ourselves one heck of a party using that money (700,000 x $1,000,000).
    3. We'll call it a $700 billion extravaganza!

    What do you mean we're already doing that? Party pooper!

    I wouldn't get over excited, sir. I have a horrid suspicion that Baldrick's plan will be the stupidest thing we've heard since the Lord Nelson's famous signal at the battle of the Nile: "England knows Lady Hamilton is a virgin - poke my eye out and cut off my arm if I'm wrong." - Blackadder, Blackadder the Third: Duel and Duality, 1987

    This brings me to the second part of my cunning plan. I'll be sure to keep ninepence in reserve for transportation home, should the extravaganza be a flop.

    Hire you a horse? For ninepence? On Jewish New Year in the rain? A bare fortnight after the dreaded horse plague of Old London Town? With the blacksmith's strike in its 15th week and the Dorset Horse Fetishist's Fair tomorrow? - Baldrick, Blackadder the Third: Amy and Amiability, 1987

    ReplyDelete
  67. Ben Stein is making me feel a bit better about my bearish capitulation. That perpetual permabull isn't looking all that perpetually permaoptimistic these days. I find it much easier to be permabearish when he's permabullish. That's clearly not the case right now. Last month he wrote "How to Ruin the U.S. Economy". Now it's gettin' personal.

    How to Ruin Your Morning
    http://finance.yahoo.com/expert/article/yourlife/119951

    Then I decided to ruin it all by filing the past few months of stock transaction receipts. I get them online as well in the form of confirmations from my broker, but I like to review them in paper. Or, I should say I once upon a time liked to review them.

    Now, they're a catastrophe.


    Oops.

    Unless something even more horrible than the derivatives crisis lurks out there, stocks look cheap now.

    Other than pointing out the multi-hundred trillion dollar weapons of financial mass destruction derivative monster in the room, it looks pretty optimistic. Right? That next word is a killer though.

    But...

    Oh oh.

    ...cash and Treasuries offer peace and the ability to sleep at night.

    Must...resist...musical...tribute...again...

    I like big "buts" and I cannot lie. You other brothers can't deny.

    ReplyDelete
  68. Must...resist...musical...tribute...again...

    Try golf. Seriously. It's an utterly pointless game, yet it has all the ups and downs you could ever want.

    One shot is great, the next is horrible. One hole is great, the next is amazingly awful. You shoot your best score ever and the very next round the wheels come off.

    Inflation, deflation, stagflation - it's all there. Happy, sad, angry, elated, furstrated, confused - you name it.

    In a way, it's alot like investing. You can take it totally seriously even when you clearly have no skills whatsoever.

    If nothing else, it's decent exercise (no carts for me). Better yet, if you are feeling really lazy, you can watch golf on tv. There's no greater way to waste time than that.

    ReplyDelete
  69. MAB,

    In a way, it's alot like investing. You can take it totally seriously even when you clearly have no skills whatsoever.

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HUtC0xxptLo

    ReplyDelete
  70. Stag,

    Okay. Golf is a sell out. I admit that.

    Maybe salmon fishing:

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zOpKFPEah3E&feature=related

    ReplyDelete
  71. MAB,

    It might sound ridiculously paranoid, but I like the fishing idea. It seems to be holding up better than tech.

    John Cleese's Tech vs. Fish Comparison
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RlmzwZXa-Ww

    Why You Should Fear the Future
    http://www.fool.com/investing/value/2008/11/05/why-you-should-fear-the-future.aspx

    Even ridiculously paranoid scenarios deserve consideration.

    ReplyDelete
  72. Stag,

    http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Berkshire-reports-77-percent-apf-13509188.html

    The above article is very telling. If Buffett is having trouble making inflation adjusted returns, most have no chance whatsoever. Less than zero.

    The illusion of prosperity is over. The debts remain though. And the inflation vs. deflation debate has not been settled. Either seems possible. Oddly, both seem likely.

    Prosperity looks to have taken early retirement. I guess that means the baby boomers can't - d'oh.

    ReplyDelete
  73. MAB,

    From your link...

    Berkshire began the year with an unrealized $1.67 billion loss on its derivative contracts. The value of those derivatives, which are tied to the value of the overall markets and the credit health of certain companies, improved in the second quarter by $654 million. But in the third quarter amid unprecedented market turmoil, their pretax value fell by $1.26 billion, leaving a pretax loss of $2.21 billion through the first nine months of the year.

    But Berkshire has no plans to sell the long-term derivative contracts before they mature, and Buffett has predicted they will ultimately be profitable.


    It seems his "Financial Weapons of Mass Destruction" have gone nuclear. It is really hard for me to wrap my head around the idea that he's actively embracing derivatives.

    From 2003...

    Buffett warns on investment 'time bomb'
    http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/2817995.stm

    But Mr Buffett argues that such highly complex financial instruments are time bombs and "financial weapons of mass destruction" that could harm not only their buyers and sellers, but the whole economic system.

    ...

    In his letter Mr Buffett compares the derivatives business to "hell... easy to enter and almost impossible to exit", and predicts that it will take years to unwind the complex deals struck by its subsidiary General Re Securities.

    It is difficult to read both articles and resolve the apparent hypocrisy.

    Throwing your body on a financial hand grenade to save your squad is true heroism. You'd no doubt get a medal posthumously.

    I'm not so sure throwing your body on a financial A-Bomb to save your squad would get you a medal though. It would take at least one survivor to point out that you did it.

    Buffett has been right more than any other investor before him. However, he's not always right. If he has a chink in his armor at all I would suggest it would be having too much optimism. He had it buying airlines in the past. He had it buying Bank of America just BEFORE the credit crisis hit last fall. It seems only natural that the world's richest man might suffer a bit from excessive optimism.

    The oracle speaks
    May 2, 2005
    http://money.cnn.com/2005/05/01/news/fortune500/buffett_talks/?cnn=yes

    "Overall, I'm an enormous bull on the country. This is the most remarkable success story in the history of the world. It does not make sense to bet against America. I do not get pessimistic about the country. The real worry is what can be done by terrorists or governments that may have access to nuclear or other weapons....

    "If you had to make a choice between long-term bonds at around 4.5 percent and equities for the next 20 years, I would certainly prefer equities. But if people think they can earn more than 6-7 percent a year, they're making a big mistake. I don't think we're in bubble-type valuations in equities -- or anywhere close to bargain valuations.


    I highlighted the exact reason I believe he had too much optimism. In 2005, very few thought they'd be earning a mere 6-7 percent per year. Turns out that 6-7 percent a year was on the high side, at least so far. The last 3 1/2 years have actually been negative.

    I'm not saying that he is wrong long-term, but there are only 16 1/2 years to go.

    I capitulated on my long-term anti-prosperity theme here based on Buffett's wisdom, but you also don't see me out buying stocks either.

    May history show I was too pessimistic. Unfortunately, that's not working out so well so far. Using hindsight, my primary mistake since starting this anti-prosperity blog was that I was also too optimisitic. I could have made money off of our demise had I been more bold. Stagnation was seemingly a pipe dream as our economy headed down the toilet.

    ReplyDelete
  74. Creative fixes for US finances
    http://articles.moneycentral.msn.com/Investing/JubaksJournal/creative-fixes-for-our-finances.aspx

    Why is it that when the stock market was hitting new highs just about every day, Washington rang with proposals to put Social Security money into the stock market?

    And now with stocks in the tank, why has the idea vanished off the radar screen? If the idea is to buy low and sell high, why isn't now, in the middle of a bear market, an even better idea?


    Behold the power of buy high and sell low.

    It isn't just us of course. My absolute favorite example comes from the UK.

    Goldfinger Brown’s £2 billion blunder in the bullion market
    http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/politics/article1655001.ece

    GATHERED around a table in one of the Bank of England’s grand meeting rooms, the select group of Britain’s top gold traders could not believe what they were being told.

    Gordon Brown had decided to sell off more than half of the country’s centuries-old gold reserves and the chancellor was intending to announce his plan later that day.

    It was May 1999 and the gold price had stagnated for much of the decade. The traders present — including senior executives from at least two big investment banks — warned that Brown, who was not at the meeting, could barely have chosen a worse moment.


    ...

    Brown offloaded the gold at a 20-year low in the market — now nicknamed the “Brown Bottom” by dealers. The 17 auctions achieved prices for the gold of between $256 and $296 an ounce, with an average of $275. Since then gold has risen sharply in value and stood yesterday at $685. This year, some top investment banks have predicted, it could even rise above the all-time high of $850.

    It did rise above $850. It did. It did. (Tweety bird)

    ReplyDelete
  75. Stag,

    This is the most remarkable success story in the history of the world. It does not make sense to bet against America. I do not get pessimistic about the country. - Buffett, from your comment.

    Ironically, that is the biggest rear view mirror statement ever.

    I've read the bull case scenarios. I've read the bear case scenarios. In my mind, the bears have a stronger case.

    Here's a personal observation:

    In the past, every time things got this screwed up, long held promises had to be broken to restart the economic engines. In the 1930s FDR devalued the dollar against gold. In the 1970s, Nixon again played games with the currency and gold. Ancient Greece, Rome, most of Europe after WWI & WWII, Japan after WWII, Brazil, Argentina, etc. All had massive defaults and restarts in one form or another.

    I don't see any painless way out. Massive household debts against falling incomes - yowza, we really need a productivity miracle.

    Our national debt to foreigners is a bummer too. We can't even do an internal restart without defaulting against our foreign financiers or going further into hock.

    At least we kept our gold. 293 million ounces I believe. 1 oz/person - woohoo!

    I think we should have kept our productive capacity and competitive advantages. We let finance sell our country for paper and the illusion of propsperity. Devalue labor via inflation. What a sham(e).

    We think, they sweat. That was wisdom. What are the odds that trend continues?

    ReplyDelete
  76. MAB,

    We can't even do an internal restart without defaulting against our foreign financiers or going further into hock.

    It is short-circuit city.

    We think, they sweat. That was wisdom. What are the odds that trend continues?

    Oops. It WAS short Circuit City. There's almost nothing left to short.

    Short Circuit City
    http://www.forbes.com/equities/2008/11/10/circuit-city-update-markets-equity-cx_cg_1110markets29.html

    Circuit City's shares fell 92.0%, or 23 cents, to 2 cents, in late-afternoon trading on Monday.

    I'm amazed the shorts did so well today. I would have thought most of it was already priced in. I was watching a Circuit City advertisement on the TV last week and told my girlfriend they'd no doubt go bankrupt very soon. No joke. I don't even follow the company much. It was just my gut talking. It is still churning from what they did back in 2007.

    Circuit City's plan to fire 3,400 will have ripple effects
    http://www.usatoday.com/money/industries/retail/2007-03-28-circuit-city-layoffs_N.htm

    Ripple. Ripple.

    It just doesn't seem to be a good time to be selling depreciating high end assets (electronics/housing) to a tapped out consumer/country.

    We're going to attempt to borrow our way out of a massive debt problem though. I really don't see how that is going to work. The last time we tried it was in 2004 and look where it got us.

    ReplyDelete
  77. MAB,

    "Payday Loans" had more free time today. Check out the comments.

    Payday Loan Center Hijinks
    http://illusionofprosperity.blogspot.com/2007/09/payday-loan-center-hijinks.html

    I think we'll be through most of the credit crisis once 50% of my recent readers aren't working for the payday loan industry, lol.

    Of course, I'm making a fairly big assumption here. Some might argue that we're all working for the payday loan industry these days. Just how much longer are we going to have to wait for the next stimulus check? We can't let China win. If they can do a half-trillion dollar stimulus package with OUR money, we ought to be able to do a three-trillion stimulus package with THEIR money.

    Please don't tell me that we don't have massive Chinese currency reserves. I don't want to hear it. Look, can't we at least sell some of the cheap Chinese goods they've sent us on eBay or something? The party must continue.

    ReplyDelete
  78. Hey MAB! Great news!

    There's currently a fire sale on Brooklyn Bridges. All you need is a tremendous amount of faith.

    The great bond market crash of 2009
    http://www.prudentbear.com/index.php/commentary/bearslair?art_id=10150

    · Rising real rates of return. The yields on Treasury Inflation Protected Securities have already risen from just over 1% to nearly 3% since the beginning of 2008. Given the excess of bonds coming to the market, it makes sense that real yields should rise. That in itself suggests that conventional Treasury bonds are hopelessly overvalued – with the 10-year TIPS yielding 2.82% and the 10 year Treasury 3.78%, the implied rate of US inflation over the decade to 2018 is 0.96% per annum, for a total rise in prices by 2018 of less than 10%. If you think that’s likely, I can get you a deal on Brooklyn Bridge!

    The "total rises in prices by 2018 of less than 10%" camp is swamped with new participants. We'll see how they are doing in five years.

    In the grand (ponzi) scheme of things, five years might seem like an eternity. Let's use the Wayback Machine to see what things were like five years ago.

    1/12/2003
    Bush's proposed tax cuts won't rescue sinking U.S. economy
    http://www.usatoday.com/news/opinion/editorials/2003-01-12-webber_x.htm

    What is the problem? Start with massive overcapacity in almost every core industry that makes up the base of the economy. In autos, for instance, the problem is so bad, it's scary. There are too many cars being produced by too many car companies. So the industry has gotten hooked on the heroin of zero-percent financing, designed to move cars at any cost.

    The problem is still here. Go figure. One can now add banks and coffee shops to the visible core industry list.

    5/7/2003
    Inflation's slowdown has many economists worried
    http://www.usatoday.com/money/economy/inflation/2003-05-07-deflation_x.htm

    WASHINGTON — With price increases running at the slowest pace in decades, deflation has become a bigger threat to the struggling U.S. economy.

    Some deflation we've had, huh?

    1/10/2003
    Will the Economy Skid on Oil?
    http://www.businessweek.com/bwdaily/dnflash/jan2003/nf20030110_5883.htm

    A year ago, the price of oil was less than $20 per barrel. At the start of 2003, it was more than $30...

    Well, oil has recently plummeted from $150 down to $60. I guess that's something. It's still a real head scratcher for the 2003 deflationists though.

    This has been a five year heckle though. Let's do the 10-Year treasuries some serious justice and shoot for a ten year heckle.

    6/11/1998
    Economy Weathers The Asian Threat : Greenspan Says U.S. Is in a 'Virtuous Cycle'
    http://www.iht.com/articles/1998/06/11/fed.t_0.php

    NEW YORK: Alan Greenspan, the Federal Reserve Board chairman, said Wednesday that the U.S. economy was "enjoying a virtuous cycle," in which rising stock prices encourage spending and growth, and he raised the possibility that the economy has "moved beyond history."

    We moved beyond history? Damn. 10 years is well beyond an eternity apparently.

    ReplyDelete
  79. Stag,

    Prophets for tributes. Tributes for profits. Make'in it work for the (e)CONomy.

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QWz_aczRjlg

    1-800-CASH NOW!

    It's the new 911.

    Besides it's OUR money. We can spend it the way we want as soon as THEY repatriate it. I'm sure it will buy as much or more in the future as it does today.

    All kid(ney)ing aside, let's hope China's stimulus package doesn't cause another oil moonshot.

    I don't think our spreadsheet prosperity can keep up with China's perma growth model. Why do I think that? Because our spreadsheet growth couldn't even keep up with our own perma growth model.

    ReplyDelete
  80. MAB,

    It is sad that I nearly have all the JG Wentworth commercials memorized.

    http://eon.businesswire.com/portal/site/eon/permalink/?ndmViewId=news_view&newsId=20081028005934&newsLang=en

    As many as 60% of consumers selling their legal settlements do so to pay bills...

    ...we believe that the current financial environment will accelerate that trend.

    While structured settlements provide a stream of payments over a defined period, often people find they need access to their funds now, whether to address immediate financial needs like paying bills...

    Once the income stream from the strucutured settlement is gone one wonders what will pay the bills in the future.

    I've been giving unemployment some more thought. I think it might go up more than most think. There are a lot of income streams that have dried up recently. Had all my money been in the stock market on the thought that I'd never have to work again, I'd certainly be looking for work right now.

    It's the new 911.

    Cash Now is related to Jobs Now. We don't seem to have the latter.

    Will Sell Structured Settlements for Food

    ReplyDelete
  81. MAB,

    I don't think our spreadsheet prosperity can keep up with China's perma growth model. Why do I think that? Because our spreadsheet growth couldn't even keep up with our own perma growth model.

    Let's try to be a bit optimistic here. There's one model that seems to be working these days.

    The perma bear model was broken from the mid 1930s to 2000. I think we've finally figured out how to make it sustainable.

    All kid(ney)ing aside...

    The kid(ney)ing is the best part though! That's like saying, "Here's a dinner roll and on the side you've got a juicy 16-ounce T-Bone steak."

    Lyndon Hood: Manifesto Of The Sarcasm Party
    http://www.scoop.co.nz/stories/HL0810/S00404.htm

    At the Sarcasm Party, we understand that you've been hard done by after nine long years of economic prosperity and are looking for a fresh breath of common sense change or whatever. So voting for us would be an awesome idea, because we'd fix everything with our magic fixing wand.

    It's the perfect party!

    Here's a fantastic idea: instead of an independent body which takes account of the scientific evidence and the proper allocation of finite resources, let's have medicine funding decided by politicians. Especially the really expensive medicines. What could possibly go wrong?

    Proper allocation of finite resources is overrated! Let's not stop with medicine. Let's pump money into all the failing industries with too much capacity. Who wouldn't like a government sponsored "free" Frosty, "free" turkey flavored soda, AND a "free" latte to go with their "free" car AND "free" credit card?

    http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=wen
    http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=jsda
    http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=sbux
    http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=gm
    http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=c

    If anything changes we can just promise to do the same things, but pretend it's an up-to-the-minute response to whatever economic thingy white people are worried about at the time....

    We're currently worried about every economic thingy simultaneously. Oh oh.

    ReplyDelete
  82. Had all my money been in the stock market on the thought that I'd never have to work again, I'd certainly be looking for work right now.

    I think a LOT of people are being forced to postPONE retirement.

    Vanguard's Target Retirement 2005 & Target Retirement 2010 funds are down YTD 19% & 23% respectively.

    There is some hope though. I've heard that Vanguard is unveiling the Target Retirement 2100 fund shortly. That should cover even the most foolhardy boomers.

    ReplyDelete
  83. MAB,

    I've heard that Vanguard is unveiling the Target Retirement 2100 fund shortly.

    Whew! That's just in time.

    2101
    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2100

    "War was beginning" according to the 1989 Japanese arcade game Zero Wing. This game was popularized by the phrase "All your base are belong to us".

    All your retirement account are belong to us.

    "A Replay of Internet Boom"
    http://illusionofprosperity.blogspot.com/2007/09/replay-of-internet-boom.html

    You have no chance to survive make your time.

    ReplyDelete
  84. MAB,

    Back to that last link.

    An identical replay? Oh oh. Next he'll be telling me that Amazon.com is once again trading at 120 times trailing earnings and has 11% of its shares shorted. (For the record, Amazon is trading at 120 times trailing earnings and has 11% of its shares shorted.)

    It seems I should have put my money where my sarcasm was. Amazon's stock was $87.30 back then. Now it is just $46.30. There seems to be a $41 gap. Speaking of gaps...

    First there's The Gap we all love and know.

    http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=gps

    Then there's The Great Atlantic & Pacific Tea Company, Inc. (GAP).

    http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=gap

    The market currently hates gaps it seems. It might be a good time to start a company called...

    The Great Transparency and Solvency Company, Inc.

    Our mission is to sell no products. By not selling any products, we will not be forced to take on debt. Since we pay no dividends, there will be no danger of future dividend cuts. Our balance sheet will be very strong and remain very strong as we sell common stock to the public. Any expenses incurred by the company, such as paying its one and only employee (me), will be paid by interest earned on the monetary hoard (the more people who invest, the bigger the hoard and the more "productive" the one employee will become). Assuming zero inflation and the full faith of the US government (providing interest "safely" to pay an indecently large salary to the employee), you simply cannot lose money investing in this company. Period.

    In other news, I've been giving thought to your request for a seriously big productivity miracle.

    I'm thinking we need a Paradox Miracle. It's what you get when you mix a productivity miracle with an influx of new jobs.

    The more jobs we can automate and outsource away the more jobs we can magically create elsewhere. Paradox miracle!

    ReplyDelete
  85. In other news, I've been giving thought to your request for a seriously big productivity miracle.

    You may be on to something. Maybe I'm looking at this the wrong way. Based on all the Keynesian logic I keep hearing, one might come to believe we actually need an anti-productivity miracle. No more John Deere harvestors. Less horse power, more people power. Lots of jobs with with sickles - yeah, that should work.

    I've been giving unemployment some more thought. I think it might go up more than most think.

    I've been thinking the same thing. A "service" eCONomy is an interesting phenomenon. The way I see it, there really isn't much in the way of savings behind services. Manufacturing economies generate savings via inventories, plant & equipment. Now the inventories, plant & equipment may be under or overvalued, but at least their is something of substance (savings) behind the credit. Any given service could disappear overnight.

    In general, savings and service oriented eCONomies really are at odds with each other. How do you generate savings from a beauty parlor. I suspect that America has become too much of a beauty parlor economy. You rake my leaves, I'll style your hair. We might as well just play poker. Money changes hands, but no wealth is created.

    Speaking of poker, what's up with ESPN and all these poker tournaments. Do they ALL have to be called the "World Series" of poker. If every single baseball game was called the World Series, I suspect the actual World Series would be called something else.

    Many of our companies that sell actual stuff can't actually produce savings either. The "stuff" is produced in other countries. I just don't see a lot of support under the service eCONomy. Most of these services are unnecessary and founded on consumers' beliefs that they have wealth now or will have wealth in the future. The stock & housing busts have put those beliefs under pressure.

    There are a LOT of empty promises parading around as money these days. There is no way the FED & Treasury can back all those promises. Cash is king - for now.

    ReplyDelete
  86. It seems I should have put my money where my sarcasm was. Amazon's stock was $87.30 back then. Now it is just $46.30. There seems to be a $41 gap.

    Hindsight is 20/20. The words shorting, retirement and prudence don't seem to belong in the same portfolio imo.

    Most bears have been too optimistic.

    Amazon was/is one of Hussman's largest holdings. He was defending Amazon at its peak too. I NEVER could understand that.

    Hussman also holds a lot of gold miners. Gold miners have certainly underperformed actual gold, but they are a questionable holding in a potentially deflationary environment. Especially since he was calling for an end to the commodity bubble and slowing inflation. And yes, I'm "still" hoping we are wise enough to understand that printing is NOT an option.

    I definitely don't want to come across as being too hard on Hussman. His funds have done well considering. I can't stand the wall street shills, but I have to admit I have certainly benefitted from his insights (yours too). I've kicked myself a few times for not capitalising on my bearishness. But, compared to many, I suppose I should feel lucky.

    We are clearly in uncharted waters. Inflation, deflation or stagflation - all possible. Prosperity? I don't see it (yet). Tough times ahead.

    ReplyDelete
  87. MAB,

    Speaking of poker, what's up with ESPN and all these poker tournaments. Do they ALL have to be called the "World Series" of poker.

    They do. It is a "universal" rule of thumb.

    Based on the government's recent spending spree and genuine need to take on more debt, rumor has it that the Patriot Bond series will be renamed "Galactus" Series Bonds. World series would simply not do it justice. They will offer a "Fantastic Four" percent real yield. It will be such a high yield in fact that the "Silver" Surfer will continue to slide down that slope of hope along with every other wealth building asset.

    I think I've finally found the fatal flaw in using taxpayer credit to bail out taxpayer credit problems.

    The more the government bails, the more supply of government debt it must offer. That debt ultimately competes with corporate debt. If one can earn ever increasing real yields from an entity that controls a printing press, why would one ever accept less than that elsewhere?

    Of course, once the dust (bowl) settles, I'm thinking the real yield party will return back to the regularly scheduled stagflationary show. It may ultimately come back down to too much money printed will translate into too much inflation generated. Call me old school.

    ReplyDelete
  88. MAB,

    The words shorting, retirement and prudence don't seem to belong in the same portfolio imo.

    That's so Lost in America. The same could be said of casinos, nests, and eggs.

    Hussman also holds a lot of gold miners. Gold miners have certainly underperformed actual gold, but they are a questionable holding in a potentially deflationary environment.

    In the fall of 2004, Barron's touted Newmont Mining with a rather long article. As you say, hindsight is 20/20. Thank goodness I didn't fall for that at least.

    I gave it some thought, but finally decided that a hole in the ground with a liar standing over it (mining) isn't much different than a hole in the water you pour money into (boating).

    You'd think that with gold hitting new highs, that Newmont Mining could at least keep up with inflation. You'd think wrong though. It has been an awful inflation hedge over the last four years (this year in particular).

    As you know, I've never understood the gold bug deflationists. My favorite example of why gold will endure is that it is not used much in industry. Therefore, as the theory goes, when industry flops gold won't.

    I never bought that argument though. First, tulip bulbs are also not used in industry. Second, if the price of every other metal declines, surely there would be downward pressure on gold too. You've got to be a serious gold bug to believe otherwise, and much to the dismay of the serious gold bugs, there aren't nearly enough of them.

    That's not to say I'm an anti-gold bug. If the price of aluminum foil explodes higher someday, I might very much wish I'd been more of a gold bug. Declining aluminum foil prices don't inspire me though, which is our current environment.

    Why is it we never hear of platinum bugs? I'm still seeing commercials on TV looking to buy my old jewelry for CASH NOW. They want gold AND platinum. One is really starting to get my goat. It continues to say that prices are at record levels and therefore people will be getting top dollar. Someone needs to change the ad. Platinum has done some serious cliff diving this year ($2200 to $800).

    When are people going to figure out that there is no safe store of value? You can overpay for dotcom stocks. You can overpay for housing. You can overpay for oil. You can overpay for gold. You can even overpay for TIPS (as I have experienced personally). You can overpay for anything and/or everything.

    Jeremy Grantham: All the World's a Bubble
    http://www.thestreet.com/_tscana/funds/followmoney/10353243.html

    Man, did he ever nail that one. Seriously nailed it.

    ReplyDelete
  89. Stag,

    http://www.findata.co.nz/markets/Quote.aspx?e=INDEX&s=BDI

    Behold the "great moderation".

    Price stability - It's a beautiful thing. Stability through instability - who knew? Genius I tell ya. Genius.

    ReplyDelete
  90. MAB,

    Behold the "great moderation".

    The 15 year chart of your link is absolutely stunning.

    Check this out. We both see way too much hope it seems.

    PC sales expected to drop
    http://www.mercurynews.com/ci_10987034

    "It is clear that the PC industry is feeling the full impact of global economic recession," it said, citing Santa Clara-based Intel's announcement Wednesday that its fourth-quarter revenue would be weaker than it had expected. Citigroup also reduced its 2009 revenue projections for Hewlett-Packard of Palo Alto, the world's biggest PC seller, and said "lack of credit, declining corporate profit margins, rising unemployment and a stronger dollar are all negatively affecting corporate and consumer PC growth."

    It isn't just lack of credit, declining corporate profit margins, rising unemployment and a stronger dollar. My personal computer is a whopping six years old and isn't all that obsolete. That's a first. It still does everything I need it to do. Further, I have stopped playing games on it entirely (yet another permanent change in my behavior). The Playstation 3 is simply much more fun (think Rockband) with far less hassle.

    Gadget survey finds many bugs can't be fixed
    http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/081116/tec_broken_gadgets.html

    "That 15 percent of technology users are sort of throwing up their hands was surprising for us," said John Horrigan, the author of the study. "You're talking about close to one in four cell phone users and one in five computer users saying, `Hey I can't cope with this any longer, I'm done.'"

    It is not outside the realm of possibility that I do not even own a personal computer in ten years. In fact, even as a former software engineer, I'd say it is almost a certainty.

    ReplyDelete
  91. Stag,

    I can't imagine how strong that tribute urge must be right now.

    Maybe this will help: A falling tide lowers all boats.

    ReplyDelete
  92. MAB,

    I can't imagine...

    Picture kidneys!

    ...how strong that tribute urge must be right now.

    I'm absolutely in awe of what is going on. I should have factored in neverending public congressional auto bailout debates into my bearish thinking. It SHOULD scare the heck out of the permabulls that the Illusion of Prosperity blog finds itself once again not being pessimistic enough.

    Maybe this will help: A falling tide lowers all boats.

    If you are really looking to help then I could use a rescue package. My TIP fund lost 2 cents per share today. By comparison, Jones Soda lost 4 cents and Nortel lost 6 cents. I'm hurtin'.

    If you would be open to subsidize my loss, as a US taxpayer, that would be a start. I'd promise not to use the relief package proceeds to fund excessive private corporate jet trips to exotic locales (like Washington DC for instance).

    Hey, where did all the CPI is grossly understated bears go? Oil drops from $150 to $50 (in addition to housing's downturn) and there's barely a dent in the CPI so far. I've actually been bracing for something a bit worse. Why aren't they arguing that the CPI should show at least a 10% decline?

    I know it has only been a few minutes since I asked for a bailout, but I'm feeling very guilty. I must come clean. Nortel's 6 cent loss and Jones Soda's 4 cent loss are probably not comparable to the 2 cent loss on TIP. It has something to do with Nortel and Jones Soda each trading at roughly the price of a US stamp (~50 cents) and that TIP trades slightly higher than that (~100 dollars). Shame on me for not disclosing that earlier. Greed got the best of me once I saw that help was being offered.

    Speaking of greed, I was thinking of changing my blog's name again to maximize my bailout profit potential. What do you think of...

    First Illusionary Bank and Auto Prosperity Preserves

    I also have a pun/slogan.

    Jamming up the financial system since 2007!

    I'm thinking the country already has too many banks and too many auto dealerships. By threatening to combine the two into a mega-disaster business, the government might just pay me not to do it. You know, much like they pay farmers not to plant crops. I'm fairly convinced that it would be money well spent.

    ReplyDelete
  93. It seems I could not resist.

    ARMs of the Bankers
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Hx4RsCfL_fA

    Spent all your cash buying
    Two cars, second home
    As the boom seemed to make it okay
    That's some lack of reason
    To save not good enough
    As the hard times might be here to stay
    It's quite some contraction
    Portfolio decrease
    The cash flow creeps and decays
    Wallet is empty
    And worthless but maybe
    Markets won't crash tonight

    It's the ARMs of the bankers
    They reset from here
    On this unsold new condo
    And the endlessness makes you swear
    You were told to buy acreage
    And you bought hard with glee
    You've got the ARMs of the bankers
    May you sell your condo there

    So tired of this down line
    It just won't seem to turn
    There's vultures and thieves coming back
    And the storm keeps persisting
    They keep on building the lies
    That the economy will bounce back
    It won't make no difference
    The bailouts won't come in time
    It's easier to believe in fiscal madness
    Oh this f'd up badness that brings no warrantees

    It's the ARMs of the bankers
    They reset from here
    On this unsold new condo
    And the endlessness makes you swear
    You were told to buy acreage
    And you bought hard with glee
    You've got the ARMs of the bankers
    May you sell your condo there
    You've got the ARMs of the bankers
    May you sell your condo there

    ReplyDelete
  94. Stag,

    http://www.coinflation.com/

    I found the above site during my continuing search for a kidney cloaking device. I desperately need one of those. We're headed for virtual pennies I tell ya.

    Oil drops from $150 to $50 (in addition to housing's downturn) and there's barely a dent in the CPI so far. I've actually been bracing for something a bit worse. Why aren't they arguing that the CPI should show at least a 10% decline?

    CPI is "still" up 3.7% yoy so it's hard for me to get excited about falling cpi prices. Frankly, I'm more worried about a falling standard of living than a falling cost of living.

    I did notice that the Chinese stock market has been on the mend lately. That's troubling. It makes me wonder if oil is the baby getting thrown out with the bath water.

    I should have hedged my house with the Case Shiller Index when housing got stupid expensive. If oil gets stupid low again, you can bet I'll be hedging my future energy needs.

    If I can buy my future oil for a "song", it would greatly con(tribute) to my future peace of mind. It would also be at(tribute)able to Big Ben's Helicopter speech. And the trillions of dollars we have sent to Asia for trinkets.

    I saw gas < $2.00/GAL today. Woohoo, that's LOW. Wait. GAL & LOW = GALLOW. Bah!

    ReplyDelete
  95. MAB,

    CPI is "still" up 3.7% yoy so it's hard for me to get excited about falling cpi prices. Frankly, I'm more worried about a falling standard of living than a falling cost of living.

    I did notice that the Chinese stock market has been on the mend lately. That's troubling. It makes me wonder if oil is the baby getting thrown out with the bath water.


    I don't think I can trust my instincts. I'm constantly fighting them. I'm currently very torn on where we head next (but it probably won't be a very good place).

    I knew when I bought gold and silver in 2004 (sold in 2006) that if I had been investing in the 1970s I most likely would have owned gold, silver, and oil way too long. I therefore told myself I would not overstay my welcome. Once I sold I would not be buying it back, no matter what my instincts said. Silver's fall from $20 recently down to $9 was tempting me ALL the way down. I couldn't/can't pull the trigger. Using hindsight, thank goodness. From the peak, that's actually worse than the stock and housing markets.

    Now that deflation seemingly rules the day, I have the inflation feelings in reverse. There's now a part of me that wants nothing more than to bury physical fiat cash in my backyard. It has been tempting ALL the way up (as the markets have imploded). I simply can't pull the trigger on it either though.

    So here I sit in TIPS. I'm nearing a point I never thought I'd reach. I'm actually starting to think the minor deflation protection that TIPS offer might actually be very useful someday. That's probably just my instincts talking though. Damn instincts.

    Fortunately, as I have said in the past, the nice part about being a paper stagflationist (in TIPS) is that I can still root for deflation and/or simply being wrong. All I care about is the long-term purchasing power of the money I already have.

    If I lose 2% but things become 4% cheaper I'd be a lot better off than If I made 22% and things become 20% more expensive. It's the same real rate of return but the government has a much harder time taxing the former than the latter. I have to keep reminding myself of that, lest my instincts convince me to do something really, really stupid.

    I think I know why instincts are so dangerous when it comes to investing. We all have instincts. One instinct is that most think they can do better than average. Few walk into the casino thinking they will probably lose (but the average person does lose or casinos would not be in business). When I moved out of stocks I actually did not think I'd do better than average. I thought over the long-term I'd probably, on average, do worse (but with less risk). My instincts were wrong. I actually did better.

    I think this every time I see the Barron's advertisement on TV that goes on and on about the sophistication of Barron's readers.

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JUcvuSyxTVc

    Barron's readers see what others don't. They prosper from discovering things first.

    Uh huh. That's right. It isn't a mass publication or anything.

    MONDAY, JULY 24, 2006
    BARRON'S COVER
    Time To Buy

    http://online.barrons.com/article/SB115352309978714147.html?mod=googlebarrons

    BEAR MARKET? WHAT BEAR MARKET?

    There also are many solid companies, like Dow Chemical (DOW), Chevron (CVX) and Lehman Brothers (LEH), that trade for 10 times earnings or less. In fact, nearly 40 companies in the S&P 500 command less than 10 times earnings, observes Paulsen.

    Lehman Brothers seems somewhat less solid these days. Somebody forgot to "prosper".

    THURSDAY, AUGUST 25, 2005
    INVESTORS' SOAPBOX AM
    Housing's Shaky Foundation

    http://online.barrons.com/article/SB112491343677622164.html?mod=googlebarrons

    I have been bullish on the housing market for several years, arguing throughout that no housing bubble exists. Recent signs of excess have changed the equation a bit, and it now looks less likely that recent strength in housing will continue. Nevertheless, any slowdown is likely to be less than the housing bears fear, owing to still good long-term fundamentals.

    We read it there first, right near the peak of the housing bubble. Signs of excess these days tend to have the phrase "price reduction" written on them.

    ReplyDelete
  96. Stag,

    All I care about is the long-term purchasing power of the money I already have.

    Most can only dream of having to deal with your financial "problem". Most have no money. I sense that more and more of those that do have money are becoming keenly aware of the fragile nature of their wealth. Many of the promises to pay made over the last cycle can't be met.

    I've been pondering Hussman's writings lately. His latest piece basically says that there is nothing unusual about current stock market valuations or the economy. I wonder though. Hussman's insights seem to be based on a selective past. One, he dismisses the Great Depression assuming that that type of asset revaluation can't occur again. It did in Japan recently. Two, Hussman has no focus on the present or future. All his analysis projects the past 70 years forward. Very weird considering we are in a historic housing bust. Things like demographics, income distribution, debt to GDP ratios, household debt levels, global competitiveness, resource depletion, energy scarcity, and unfunded government entitlements are ignored. His analysis, while insightful, gives little thought that the present and future may be radically different than the past.

    I think we are in uncharted territory. An inflection point. I have serious doubts that our perma-growth debt based system is viable.

    One more thought. I find it mind boggling that a falling CPI is actually a concern. The notion that people will stop spending if prices fall doesn't sit well with me. Computers, calculators, post holiday sales, apparel all seem to debunk that theory. In fact, that theory seems like a smoke screen. The real reason (imo) falling prices can't be tolerated is that the debt system would collapse without growth. We always need to pay the ever increasing interest payments.

    ReplyDelete
  97. MAB,

    I've been pondering Hussman's writings lately.

    Me too. I've even begun to ponder Buffett's writings lately. I find that very disturbing. Buffett was a major reason I capitulated (this very post). So far the capitulation is going pretty much as all capitulations go. Not good.

    Stocks are WAY down since I capitulated. Fortunately, I did not buy stocks. Whew! Inflation and inflation expectations are also WAY down.

    That's Great Depression type stuff. None of us "younger" folk have ever invested during seriously deflationary periods and that includes Buffett and Hussman.

    I've also been giving more thought to my own writings, using the power of hindsight. Deep down I have always had this uneasy feeling that I could not protect my wealth by buying stuff (i.e., silver). As a country we already bought WAY too much stuff. That's why I was just a paper stagflationist. If I was wrong to be a stagflationist, I didn't want to be THAT wrong. That's pretty much exactly what is happening though. Today the stock market lost about 5% and I lost about 1% (but perhaps nothing if one adjusts for inflation). If the goal is to lose less than the next guy in a bear market, I'm doing okay so far.

    Check out this chart. The stock trades at $6.66. I'm not a religious person, but even I have a hard time finding faith in that price. Oh how the mighty have fallen. Keep in mind it was the economic bears who embraced the stock. Clearly being a bear isn't good enough. You must choose what kind of bear you want to be (an inflationary one, or a deflationary one). It is a sad state of affairs when the bears do worse than the bulls in a seriously bearish environment.

    http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=SSRI&t=my

    I've also been pondering my gut. Let's assume for the moment that I was right to be prosperity neutral when I capitulated on October 17th. I made it pretty clear that I thought things would continue to get worse, but at some point fair value is reached just the same.

    The Dow dropped from 13,357 when I started my blog to 8,972 when I capitulated.

    Let's also assume that the market works like a pendulum as the momentum swings. The phsyicist in me wants to see the pendulum swing the entire way. An object in motion... you know the story. So where would that put the bottom in the DJIA?

    High (overvalued) to mid (fair value) to low (undervalued)...

    13,357 -> 8,972 -> 4,587

    Let's assume I'm wrong. Really. Let's start assuming that in a major way. Otherwise, we're going to find this "I'm Capitulating" post even more Greatly Depressing soon.

    Peter Schiff was on TV today explaining why things are what they are. The government cannot save us. They cannot give more than they take. Basically, in order to rescue bad businesses they must take from good businesses. In fact, the more they do that, the worse it will get long-term. The last thing we need is a country full of propped up bad businesses. We've already got that and what has it done for us?

    I find it very hard to argue with that.

    ReplyDelete
  98. Stag,

    Peter Schiff was on TV today explaining why things are what they are. The government cannot save us.

    Peter Schiff makes convincing arguments. I read his book and I certainly share many of his concerns. Perhaps it's a good thing I didn't agree with his solutions though (invest elsewhere). Sometimes no investment is the best option.

    http://peterschiffsucks.blogspot.com/

    Here's our conundrum as I see it. We need asset appreciation, especially in real estate, in order to save our financial system. However, increasing real estate values generally require increasing incomes. To be competitive globally, we need a lower cost structure (incomes), but that would kill our real estate values and our financial system.

    In short, we're trying to extract a free lunch from globalization. That can't happen. When push comes to shove, it seems clear incomes will be sacrificed in the short run to save the financial sector (think GM vs. Citi). Longer term, if incomes don't grow, real estate must fall or interest rates will have to fall and stay crazy low. And if interest rates get crazy low, I have doubts foreigners will want to invest here.

    I don't see prosperity for the majority.

    Right now the U.S. is too big to fail. That won't be the case forever.

    ReplyDelete
  99. MAB,

    Peter Schiff is finding out the hard way (much like I am) that being a decent critic does not necessarily make one a decent artist.

    Put another way, it is much easier to see a problem than it is to see a solution.

    I thought TIPS would be relatively safe. The key word seems to be relatively. I had my worst day yet I think. My TIP fund lost nearly 2% today.

    Yet, the dollar tanked 2% and oil rose 9%. Go figure. You'd think that would be somewhat supportive to TIPS prices. The losses in TIPS seem to be feeding on themselves though. I've been planning all year to participate in the auctions again in January. I'll take whatever the market will give me at that time. So far, the market seems intent on giving me a very decent price. I therefore have very little reason to complain.

    Here's another bit of somewhat amusing trivia that might describe my current thinking and illustrates how I could care less what the market thinks.

    In 2005, Google was trading at $291. I had enough. I told others I would use imaginary money to short it with my entire life savings. If it ever doubled, I would declare myself imaginarily bankrupt and insolvent.

    Google more than doubled (up past $720 a share). I was imaginarily ruined (and then some). As a thought experiment, I lost everything. So what does it trade at now? $257. Since Google does not pay a dividend, investors in 2005 have lost $34 a share in addition to what inflation has done. Oops.

    Using hindsight, I was both right and wrong. The wrong would have hurt me far worse than the right would have helped me, even though I was more right than wrong in the end.

    It is yet another example of "the market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent" theory. Fortunately, it was just imaginary money.

    Years from now, I think TIPS may be a similar story in reverse. In the short-term, I'm being killed. Unlike the Google example though, I'm not going to put myself in a position where the market can make me insolvent while I wait.

    In the grand ponzi scheme of things, I do not count on the market. I only count on the government's ability to print me money. That's still a measurable risk (it could default), but at least it isn't a market/casino risk.

    ReplyDelete
  100. Stag,

    Years from now, I think TIPS may be a similar story in reverse. In the short-term, I'm being killed.

    More and more, I think most are going to be killed financially. I really do. The Fed & Treasury are no longer just lenders of last resort. They are the only lenders period. I can't even tell if it's borrowed money or printing at this point. Nobody is even questioning the Fed's actions.

    http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=a5PxZ0NcDI4o

    The Fed & Treasury are in full panic mode. I guess they have no choice in the face of a deflationary bust. Credit must expand or the claptrap monetary sham dies.

    Personally, I was hoping for a new system. I never felt comfortable having other peoples liabilities as my assets. More than ever now.

    Sometimes doing nothing is the best option. A debt based system can't tolerate zero or negative growth though. I can only imagine the idiocy that will be spawned if the fed succeeds and keeps the credit bubble inflating.

    ReplyDelete
  101. MAB,

    The Fed & Treasury are in full panic mode.

    From your link...

    Nov. 24 (Bloomberg) -- The U.S. government is prepared to provide more than $7.7 trillion on behalf of American taxpayers after guaranteeing $306 billion of Citigroup Inc. debt yesterday.

    They need to pace themselves a bit. Full panic can be exhausting.

    What if Fed & Treasury were forced to bail out the system using nothing but pennies?

    Find 770 trillion pennies, pick them up, and all the century you'll have good luck.

    Ah, who am I kidding? We'd no doubt outsource the work once we'd picked up the first few hundred thousand.

    I've got a ton of four-letter rescue program ideas though. The TARP just isn't cutting it.

    PUMP - Promises of Unlimited Monetary Printing

    DUMP - Deflation Undermines Mirage of Prosperity

    %#@$ - Savings Herded Into Toilet

    @#$% - Financial Uncertainty Compromises Kidneys

    Nevermind. That's just more of the same come to think of it. We're heading to Candy Mountain. @#$%.

    As a side note, at ~2.5 grams per penny, 770 trillion pennies would weigh about 2 billion (metric) tonnes.

    Great Pyramid of Giza
    http://www.ancientnile.co.uk/pyramids.php

    Its estimated weight is 6.5 million tonnes.

    By weight, we could make ourselves about 307 Great Ponzi Pyramids. That would certainly keep us employed and be the perfect symbol of where we are headed. Infrastructure baby. Yeah, that's what I'm talking about. Think Hoover Dam on steroids.

    Better still, perhaps we could simply stack the pennies. At ~0.05" each, the stack would be roughly 600 million miles high. I think I just found something for NASA to do. Forget the moon and Mars. Let's build 6 stacks to the sun. It's only 93 million miles away. Free energy once we get there though. Woohoo!

    Man, I wish I was being sarcastic today. Unless I've made a mistake, the math is actually real.

    ReplyDelete
  102. MAB,

    One more thought. Let's assume we put one million people to work picking up the 770 trillion pennies. Let's say they can pick up one per second. I doubt they can keep the pace without resorting to automation (or at the very least a shovel), but let's be optimistic.

    That's ~770 million seconds.
    That's ~12.8 million minutes.
    That's ~213,888 hours.
    That's ~5,347 40-hour work-weeks.
    That's ~1 century.

    Does this mean I can't still count on the 2nd half of 2008 recovery we'd been told so much about earlier this year? I was still holding out hope that December would be the month that it really kicked in.

    ReplyDelete
  103. Mark- Tanta passed away. 11/30/08

    ReplyDelete
  104. Stag,

    The ten year treasury yield blew right by pi. As of this morning, it's hovering a smidge above e.

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/E_(mathematical_constant)

    e is "transcendental", just like our economic pain. e is also "irrational", just like our economic policies. In that context, everything makes a bit more sense.

    A guy named Michael Holland was on Bloomberg TV this morning. He's a long time regular on all the market shows. A so called "expert". A perennial bull(sh%tter) imo. He was basically saying investors were fools for putting money in treasuries as the yields were pathetic. I can only imagine how pathetic his funds returns have been over the past 1, 3, 5 & 10 year periods. Funny that the Bloomberg anchor didn't challenge him on that point. Typical.

    We have politically (in)correct financial news reporting. Nobody ever calls the money (mis)managers to the carpet. Good for sell side wall street, good for selling advertising, but bad for main street. What a sham(e).

    I'm seriously thinking of starting an alternative financial & political news company. Admittedly, I have no relevant experience. Zero. However, I'm pretty good at spotting shams, distortions and misrepresentations, and I see a huge need to publicly expose said bs ad nausea um.

    ReplyDelete
  105. Cuyamaca,

    Mark- Tanta passed away. 11/30/08

    Thank you for letting me know. I just posted my condolences.

    http://calculatedrisk.blogspot.com/2008/11/sad-news-tanta-passes-away.html

    ReplyDelete
  106. MAB,

    The ten year treasury yield blew right by pi. As of this morning, it's hovering a smidge above e.

    I have this unseasy feeling that it might hit i before this is all over, not that it ever truly can be over.

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Imaginary_number

    I'm seriously thinking of starting an alternative financial & political news company. Admittedly, I have no relevant experience. Zero. However, I'm pretty good at spotting shams, distortions and misrepresentations, and I see a huge need to publicly expose said bs ad nausea um.

    I think it could be automated. Just take the normal news and insert a "[not]" in front of every "going".

    Examples...

    Things are [not] going well.
    The market is [not] going up.

    Oops. I need additional rules it seems. There are unintended consequences of my first rule. I have a fix though. Insert "[in your dreams] after every "bankrupt" as well.

    Example...

    Pilgrim's Pride is [not] going bankrupt [in your dreams].

    http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=ppc

    It is my dream to work at the Fed it seems. I love experimenting with unintended consequences. Using this jury-rig approach, I can fix any problem by adding at least one additional problem.

    I guarantee that the number of problems will always be positive. I am also picturing my first speech.

    The Square Root of Negative One: Making Sure "I" Doesn't Happen Here

    Just between you and me, I'm not entirely sure I will believe what I say, but I will definitely say it with conviction though. People need to keep the faith.

    ReplyDelete
  107. Stag,

    http://biz.yahoo.com/cnnm/081201/120108_recession.html

    It sure took the NBER long enough. What a bunch of turkeys. Perhaps they felt a renewed sense of urgency. It's becoming widely accepted that the recession will end when the depression begins - d'oh!

    ain't cool being no jive turkey so close to Thanksgiving - Billy Ray Valentine's cell mate - Trading Places.

    ReplyDelete
  108. MAB,

    Now look what you've done.

    Imaginary Numbers

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZC2BivUfnP0

    Imaginary numbers
    Loans never get turned down
    When not one banker turns you away they're unsound?
    Just a home loan pleasure
    Mortgage fantasy
    Others to share the wildest risks with me!!
    Imaginary numbers
    They're good anytime
    Imaginary numbers, oh yeah!

    When ordinary numbers
    Don't pay for the meals
    And real-life debt burdens lose their thrill
    Imagination turns real
    Imaginary numbers, imaginary numbers
    They're good anytime

    Imaginary numbers can buy homes for free
    It's almost fair
    But sometimes come with some greed
    The payments are "guaranteed"
    Imaginary numbers, imaginary numbers
    They're good all the time
    My imaginary numbers
    They're good anytime

    ReplyDelete
  109. MAB,

    It sure took the NBER long enough. What a bunch of turkeys. Perhaps they felt a renewed sense of urgency. It's becoming widely accepted that the recession will end when the depression begins - d'oh!

    That's okay. They are still way ahead of my "favorite" commentator.

    February 08, 2008
    Dennis Kneale - Commentator Extraordinaire
    http://runningofthebulls.typepad.com/toros_running_of_the_bull/2008/02/dennis-kneale-.html

    I'm sure Mr. Kneale is a fine individual, and I certainly listen when he speaks about the business of technology. But when a semi-trailer truck is barreling down on you at 100 miles per hour, it is not the time to wistfully look at the sky and admire what a nice day it may be.

    There is a time to be bullish on stocks and there is a time to be bearish on stocks. The perennially bullish will hand your head to you on a platter when you need an unbiased opinion the most.


    Using the power of hindsight, February would have actually been a great time to back up the truck. First, it was still moving rather slow. Second, it was not well positioned on the mountain for further altitude gains. Third, and most importantly, the truck had no brakes.

    http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=%5EDJI&t=1y

    Using my vast knowledge of technical analysis (not!), we seem to have hit a tree. That's great news. Now all we have to do is wait for the 2nd half of 2008 recovery.

    May 20, 2008
    Fed's Kohn says economy to start slow recovery in second half UPDATE
    http://www.forbes.com/feeds/afx/2008/05/20/afx5029104.html

    It's been (post)poned so bad one has to wonder if there will even be a recovery.

    December 1, 2008
    DARK DAYS
    http://www.shippingdigest.com/news/article.asp?sid=5686&ltype=trade

    “It’s not a question of whether there will be a recovery, but of when and how,” Kemmsies said. “It’s coming. It could be earlier if oil prices stay down.”

    My bad. I was apparently asking the wrong question.

    ReplyDelete
  110. Stag,

    Imaginary Numbers. Awesome.

    Our wealth is now based largely on imaginary numbers - asset inflation, mark to model, 401k's, discounted cash flows, AAA, fed collateral, etc.

    The more I think about it, the more I see the need to base our country's wealth on something more sustainable. Something easier to understand than credit and credit derivatives. I'm just floating an idea here for consideration - Magic Beans! Unlike imaginary numbers, these really can grow to the sky.

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Magic_beans

    Anything but magic kidney beans.

    ReplyDelete
  111. MAB,

    I'm just floating an idea here for consideration - Magic Beans! Unlike imaginary numbers, these really can grow to the sky.

    LOL!

    I really hate to pop your bean bubble, but beans are way too complex a financial instrument for the masses. It is best they pile into structured investment vehicles instead, for their own safety.

    Blackadder II: Head
    http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0526718/

    Blackadder: Right Baldrick, let's try again shall we? This is called adding. If I have two beans, and then I add two more beans, what do I have?

    Baldrick: Some beans.

    Blackadder: Yes... and no. Let's try again shall we? I have two beans, then I add two more beans. What does that make?

    Baldrick: A very small casserole.

    Blackadder: Baldrick, the ape creatures of the Indus have mastered this. Now try again. One, two, three, four. So how many are there?

    Baldrick: Three.

    Blackadder: What?

    Baldrick: ...and that one.

    Blackadder: Three and that one. So if I add that one to the three what will I have?

    Baldrick: Oh. Some beans.

    Blackadder: Yes. To you Baldrick, the Renaissance was just something that happened to other people, wasn't it?

    ReplyDelete
  112. Stag,

    http://www.president.harvard.edu/history/27_summers/summers.html

    From Summers' Harvard bio:

    As secretary....and led the effort to enact the most sweeping financial deregulation in 60 years.

    Good grief. I thought Rubin was bad.

    I think you are right. Apparently, there really is "still" a lot of wealth that needs to be unlocked from our eCONomy.

    Wall street and the wealthy have some powerful advocates it seems.

    It's not like people actually need two kidneys.

    Change? Yeah, as in spare change. Brother can you spare a dime?

    ReplyDelete
  113. MAB,

    Apparently, there really is "still" a lot of wealth that needs to be unlocked from our eCONomy.

    Our eCONomy is increasingly complex and has experienced some significant dislocations. I'm still hopeful that we'll get a 2nd half of 2008 recovery though.

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=G-Zd23xrw3M

    Give me a few minutes in the shop with a paint can and I can make this economy look nearly as good as new.

    There has never been a better time to back up the (tow) truck.

    ReplyDelete
  114. My inbox is similarly amusing, courtesy of Ameritrade.

    Market Outlook: Investing for the End of the "Zero" Decade - A Strategy Webcast

    What happens after the "Zero" Decade? Inquiring minds want to know!

    What will replace ZIRP (Zero Interest Rate Policy)?

    Here's three ideas.

    INIRP - Imaginary Number Interest Rate Policy

    INEPT - Imaginary Numbers Enhance Prosperity Trends

    INCOMPETENT - Imaginary Numbers Can Only Make Prosperity Enhancement Trends Explode Near Term

    My money is on the latter. There's much more "bang" for the buck.

    The Fed is now forced to use unconventional untested methods to get us to eat out at restaurants and buy more discretionary crap we don't actually need instead of saving for retirement. I guess that means they'll have to actually give us coupons. Can you picture it?

    Buy Zero Entrees at the Regular Price and Get Two Free

    The program could be called BARF (Buy Assets by Repricing Food).

    It could certainly work. I'd eat out again. I'm a bit concerned about the unintended consequences though. It would encourage banks to become restaurants. I'm picturing IHOC (International House of Citigroup).

    ReplyDelete
  115. Stag,

    http://www.cnbc.com//id/28000444?__source=yahoo|headline|quote|text|&par=yahoo

    http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/081202/earns_sears.html?.v=5

    It's getting more & more difficult for the masters of the universe to flip these "investments".

    Maybe that is the surest sign of a bear market - no matter how hard you try you just can't find a greater fool.

    Things "still" might turn out ok though. Sears/Lampert is now flipping more Sears shares to Sears with an additional $500 million stock buy back. I'm certainly no one to question Eddie Lampert, but maybe the $ would be better spent buying Sears puts.

    ReplyDelete
  116. MAB,

    Maybe that is the surest sign of a bear market - no matter how hard you try you just can't find a greater fool.

    For those who are just tuning in, we had no problem finding greater fools back in May (using the power of hindsight anyway).

    May 8, 2008
    Our Pillars of Retail Strength
    http://illusionofprosperity.blogspot.com/2008/05/our-pillars-of-retail-strength.html

    Either you guys are joking or you like to buy high and sell low. Not my style. Lampert and Sears will prove to be fantastic investments over the next 10 years. Over the next 10 minutes? who knows and who cares? - Anonymous

    SHLD price then: $93.45
    SHLD price now: $36.09

    In hindsight, we were neither joking nor liking to buy high and sell low. Apparently there really was a third option. Go figure.

    SHLD was up $4.25 today though, so perhaps momentum is finally on its side. WooFrickinHoo. $57.36 to go just to get back to the starting point.

    This will always stand out to me, since anonymous was the only reader brave enough to imply we were idiots. We still might be idiots of course, but using the power of hindsight at least we weren't "greater" idiots, lol.

    There has been an amazing bull market in heckling over the past year. It was like the early stages of an Easter Egg hunt. There were eggs everywhere! It was not a coincidence that I started this blog just a week or so after the credit crisis back in the fall of 2007. Eggs!

    It is far easier to find an egg than fix an egg though. I have no solutions to the long-term mess we're in.

    If a nest egg has gone bad the nose can figure it out quite easily. What can be done to fix the nest egg though? Throwing out the nest egg doesn't seem to be an option. Throwing money at the nest egg has been and is the current plan, and I'm still extremely skeptical that it can work long-term. How is borrowing our way out of debt bubble going to work? We tried it after the dotcom bubble and just look where it has gotten us. I would say we're in worse shape, and so would California.

    Record 3.1 million Calif kids getting school meals
    http://www.mercurynews.com/news/ci_11120953

    As more children became eligible and signed up for the program, the state ran out of money to repay school districts starting in May, O'Connell said.
    And that was before the worst of the downturn hit. This year, the program is forecast to run out of funding even sooner, straining school districts that must cut back on other programs to pay for the meals.


    California's Budget Crisis: Just Part Of "Cuckoo Land"?
    http://www.cnbc.com/id/28018300

    "Fundamentally the state cannot live beyond its means," says Kotkin. "Both parties live in some sort of weird cuckoo land which they refuse to leave, no matter what."

    He says California increasingly depends on the capital gains of the very rich, which are taxed at 9.3 percent, like ordinary income. Those gains have evaporated, and the middle class is being pushed out of state by high prices and fewer jobs.

    ReplyDelete
  117. Stag,

    http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/cifamerica/2008/dec/02/global-economic-recession-inflation

    I've long thought the U.S. would end up taking the inflation route in response to this debt mess. Our foreign handlers/creditors should have no problem with this "solution" either - not.

    Unlike Rogoff, I think the results of inflation will be disastrous. Especially for the boomers. Those with nothing will still have nothing. Those with something will have less, likely much less. Foolish debtors will still be fools.

    If printing money was truly a solution, the world would never have economic problems. We wouldn't have bank robbers either.

    Makes me want to go long oil. Or build a bigger pantry.

    We're heading for virtual pennies.

    ReplyDelete
  118. Stag,

    This really spooks me:

    http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/BASE

    This should lead to some serious unintended consequences. I doubt it will lead to prosperity or financial security.

    I hope we don't manage our nuclear arsenal like this.

    ReplyDelete
  119. MAB,

    From your first link.

    It is time for the world's major central banks to acknowledge that a sudden burst of moderate inflation would be extremely helpful in unwinding today's epic debt morass.

    Holy frickin' cow. No wonder my TIP fund has suddenly started bouncing higher. It's risen ~5% in the last week.

    There is some good news if he gets his way though. I'll be able to start up my blog again. Woohoo! I can't wait to resume my Death of Real Yields series. I was bummed when it anti-collapsed thanks to the recent Great Depressionary events.

    I then browsed your "really spooks me" link. I couldn't help but think that I was already really spooked. Great use of throwing a teaser at me lest I have a heart attack right here on the spot. I went into it somewhat desensitized. Thanks!

    So here's my reaction to it.

    HOLY FRICKIN' COW!! NO WONDER MY TIP FUND HAS SUDDENLY STARTED BOUNCING HIGHER! IT'S RISEN ~5% IN THE LAST WEEK!

    I should mention that my TIP fund has not paid a dividend in a few months, thanks to the deflation. Investors seem to be looking past that and embracing the supposedly stagflationary future. How cool is that?

    This should lead to some serious unintended consequences. I doubt it will lead to prosperity or financial security.

    It will lead to prosperity AND financial security.

    Wamuwoohoohahaha! *mad banker laugh*

    As supporting evidence, monkeys will also fly out of my @$$. That's two $ for every @.

    I also offer a prediction of my own. Prosperity and financial security will last until banking hell freezes over again, thanks to inflation turning every consumer in this consumer/service economy into a paranoid nutcase.

    If there is one thing I know about paranoid nutcases it is that we don't tend to eat at restaurants much. Oops. I mean that he doesn't tend to eat at restaurants much.

    Paranoid nutcases tend to talk of themselves in third person. That's something else he tends to do.

    See what you did? You overly spooked the paranoid nutcase! Hey, at least you didn't spook the schizophrenic paranoid nutcase.

    Yes you did! Not!

    Look, I'm perfectly sane.

    We're gonna get deflation.
    We're gonna get inflation.
    We're gonna get deflation.
    We're gonna get inflation.

    Help me. ;)

    ReplyDelete
  120. June 5, 2008
    Recession? What recession?

    http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232?video=762346904&play=1

    ...just because Wall Street traders sometimes panic, doesn't mean investors have to panic with them. Don't buy the hype... - Dennis Kneale

    Someday though Dennis there is going to be a reckoning for these bad assets and that could be a pretty big negative for the stock market. - Steve Liesman

    And someday the reckoning could be to the upside because we might have marked them down way too much and once the credit crisis eases we may actually decide those bonds aren't so bad after all. - Dennis Kneale

    Dow Then: 12,604.45
    Dow Now: 8,511.72

    One third appears to be missing. What happened to the rest of the ship? Here's one theory.

    Dennis apparently used his knowledge of dead "reckoning" to guide our ship directly onto the rocks.

    Dead reckoning
    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dead_reckoning

    Dead reckoning (DR) is the process of estimating one's current position based upon a previously determined position, or fix, and advancing that position based upon known speed, elapsed time, and course.

    So what went wrong?

    In marine navigation a dead reckoning plot generally does not take into account the effect of currents or wind.

    Oops. I'm thinking, and perhaps I am wrong, that mountainous waves should not have been ignored.

    Dead Reckoning
    http://www.orionbooks.co.uk/HB-30653/dead-reckoning-.htm

    As an unescorted merchantman sailing U-boat infested waters, Dunedin Star's passage was, at best, a risky undertaking. But her eventual fate was to defy all expectation. Three weeks into her voyage, her hull mysteriously holed, Dunedin Star ran aground off Namibia's infamous Skeleton Coast - five hundred miles of raging surf and burning desert, the most violent and desolate shore on earth. Sixty-three men, women and children were to defy mountainous waves and unfathomable odds to reach land . . . but their struggle for survival had only just begun.

    Little known was the speech given to the "twenty-one fare-paying civilians" just before the voyage. It went something like this.

    Don't buy the hype. The reckoning could be to the upside. The U-boats might offer us supplies. Even if we do sink, the most violent and desolate shore on earth might end up being a tropical paradise by the time we get there.

    Another theory involves the Day of Reckoning, but let's not go there. Why bring up underfunded Social Security and Medicare right now when we've got so many other things to worry about?

    ReplyDelete
  121. Stag,

    Dennis apparently used his knowledge of dead "reckoning" to guide our ship directly onto the rocks.

    No kidding. Dennis Kneale and his ilk have helped ruin a lot of lives. Just imagine the financial devastation so many are dealing with today. Especially those in or near retirement. Yowza! Housing bust - POW! Stock Bust - POW! Even bond funds have taken a beating. God help you if you put your money in a "safe but liquid" enhanced short term yield fund. Enhanced? Good grief. Charles Ponzi was a piker compared to wall street.

    Buy Buy Buy. CNBC is a disgrace. What was Buffett doing validating that show with his numerous appearances? I can't get over that.

    I keep thinking back to that Elizabeth Warren video posted on your blog months ago. Remember the dual income paradox? Even though dual income families have more income, their lives become dependent on BOTH incomes. Hence the bigger mortgages and fancier cars. Problem is, if one spouse loses a job or gets sick, the income drops sharply, but the expenses don't. So where are we now? Oh yeah, unemployment is rising sharply - another POW! Sure Goldilocks, hit em when they're down.

    This financial crisis is getting so out of hand I'm having trouble keeping my sense of humor.

    At this point, I think Webster's Dictionary should retire the word retirement. The concept is insult now. Politically & socially unacceptable. It's like a racial slur.

    ReplyDelete
  122. MAB,

    Your rant makes me think some of these permabullish commentators should have been working under aliases. It also makes me think we're in a cheesy Batman series from the distant past.

    Riddler, Joker, and Two-Face come to mind.

    http://www.batmania.com.ar/paginas/serie_onomatopeyas.htm

    Don't buy the hype. EEE-YOW!
    Buy buy buy. AIEEE!
    Enhanced bond funds. CRASH!
    Excessive CEO compensation. WHAM-ETH!
    Leveraged Debt. CRUNCH!
    General Motors: FLRBBBBB!
    Housing: !OX?-ETH!
    Mad Money: KER-PLOP!
    Fast Money: Z-Z-Z-ZWAP!
    Capitalism: RIP!
    Resiliency: UGGH!

    We moved smoothly from SNAFU (Situation Normal: All F***ed Up) right into SAMFUTU (Situation Abnormal: More F***ed Up Than Usual). It didn't just take a day. We've been doing it consistently for a full year so far. I guess that's what they mean when they say our economy is so resilient.

    As seen in TV ads, Barron readers are more sophisticated than typical readers though. They no doubt saw this coming.

    December 14, 2006
    The Resilient Economy
    http://www.smartmoney.com/investing/economy/the-resilient-economy-20508/

    A DECADE AGO, Barnes, the esteemed economist at Montreal's BCA Research and managing editor of its Bank Credit Analyst Report, posited the notion that the U.S. economy was at the start of a long wave of growth fueled by advances in technology.

    POW!

    Boy, was he ever right.

    POW!

    Today, the wave continues, explaining the resiliency of the economy in the face of any number of setbacks and, he says, setting the stage for more positive surprises.

    POW!

    ReplyDelete
  123. Stag,

    It also makes me think we're in a cheesy Batman series from the distant past.

    Maybe we are. What a sham(e).

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yNq0UkyuYn0

    Big Casino, Herd. It all fits.

    ReplyDelete
  124. MAB,

    Holy stampede!

    Oh well, it isn't like our economy lost 533,000 jobs in one month alone. Okay, maybe it is. It isn't like it is the worst job report since 1974 and that 1974 seems to be a date I've been dwelling on for years though. Okay, maybe that too.

    Here's another theory I've been working off since I turned bearish on the prosperity generating effects of productivity miracles.

    First we just had job reports. Times were simple and predictable.

    Then came non-farm job reports. Thanks to automation, we simply don't need as many farmers.

    Non-farm/manufacturing job reports seem to be next in line, even if the auto industry is bailed out. There are just too many people elsewhere who will work cheaper than we will.

    Thanks to the increasing popularity of Internet banking, non-farm/manufacturing/banking job reports seem likely at some point.

    Thanks to the increasing popularity of warehouse clubs (Costco, Sam's Club), dotcom shopping, and self-serve checkouts at grocery stores it would seem non-farm/manufacturing/banking/retail job reports would be next.

    Thanks to the implosion of jobs as listed above, we can stop talking about restaurant jobs. That would leave us with non-farm/manufacturing/banking/retail/restaurant job reports.

    And lastly, we can finally simplify things a bit. The government can take the remaining private healthcare jobs and make them government jobs. Then they can simply issue Comrade Job Reports. Capitalism won't be dead of course. In fact, it will be a crime to even suggest that it is. It will also be a crime to mention the trade deficit in public, lest the Chinese start thinking we've run out of things to offer them in exchange for their goods.

    Ah, who am I kidding? I'm sure our healthcare and government jobs will generate them very impressive returns on their US fiat reserves. What could possibly make one richer than supporting an aging government worker's need of expensive hospital care?

    Oh oh. The black helicopters are circling my house again. What did I say to warrant that?

    I'd really like to point out that this is really just a stupid and crazy theory of course. Nothing could be further from the truth. Everything is going to be just fine.

    The front door is being kicked in. Um, think Mark, think...

    God Bless America, land that I love! Stand beside her, and guide her!

    I don't think it is working. I hear people in the hallway debating the acceptable use of waterboarding, other simulated drowning techniques, and the Patriot Act. Gotta run! See ya!

    *muffles voices*
    *rapid footsteps*
    *gunshots*
    *ricochets*
    *screams*

    This was a test of the emergency blogging system. Had this been an actual emergency...

    ReplyDelete
  125. Stag,

    Here's another theory I've been working off since I turned bearish on the prosperity generating effects of productivity miracles.

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Henry_george

    More & more it seems, the majority are victims of success. George's theories have some merit imo. Anyhow, it's become clear to me why Buffett doesn't ever invest in productivity. Productivity devalues prior productivity continually and in a debt system is a slave to credit creation.

    Capitalism won't be dead of course. In fact, it will be a crime to even suggest that it is.

    That's a necessity for successful cronyism. Capitalism for the majority and socialism/cronyism for the minority.

    I've been thinking about how unstable the current situation is. There are so many bogus loans/credits in the system. All layered too. And all the bogus loans were considered assets which were then pyramided to extend more bogus credit. It's no wonder banks don't trust each other.

    The jig is up. Von Mises was right. I don't think this is the final collapse though. The fed likely can balance inflation against deflation. But, in the end I think the majority will be worse off.

    At this point, many (perhaps a majority) would be far better off defaulting on all debt and starting over with a clean slate. That thought has to spook Bernanke. If people act in their own self interests, this "sucker could go down."

    Hence the need for the government to guarantee almost every asset out there with a printing press. Guaranteeing bogus credit doesn't increase the quantity of real goods though. It will surely increase the number of dollars relative to real goods.

    As for black helicopters, the current state of affairs makes you wonder. The TARP proceedings and the Fed's actions sure make it seem like the constitution is not an obstacle to money interests.

    If you have a bent for black helicopters check out the following link:

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xbY5_qtz83M

    ReplyDelete
  126. MAB,

    I've been thinking about how unstable the current situation is. There are so many bogus loans/credits in the system. All layered too. And all the bogus loans were considered assets which were then pyramided to extend more bogus credit. It's no wonder banks don't trust each other.

    The more you know the more towels you need.

    Who else will pull out of their 401(k)s?: As economy slides, more employees give up on retirement plans
    http://www.nj.com/business/index.ssf/2008/11/who_else_will_pull_out_of_thei.html

    "It just seems more people could throw in the towel, which is really a shame," said Pamela Hess, director of retirement research at Hewitt, which released new data on 401(k) activity last week. "If we have more declines, if the economy continues to suffer, I'd be very concerned about participation rates. Because if it gets worse than this..."

    Note how the sentence just sort of ends on that note. I was most interested in what actually came next. Go figure.

    Small businesses could "throw in the towel" warns FSB
    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financetopics/financialcrisis/3659727/Small-businesses-could-throw-in-the-towel-warns-FSB.html

    Small business leaders are warning ministers and banks that large numbers of their members are thinking of throwing in the towel because of the economic downturn and the struggle to get better credit terms.

    Towel thowing I tell you.

    Star of Hope struggles through the economic crunch
    http://www.khou.com/news/local/houstonmetro/stories/khou081207_mp_star-of-hope-in-need.3da9dba5.html

    "Just like the general public, you can’t throw in the towel. You have to keep pushing forward," said Marilyn Fountain, who works at the Star of Hope.

    I was raised with the belief that we are Americans, not Americants. If we get in our minds to throw in the towel, then by God, expect to see the towel.

    The fed likely can balance inflation against deflation. But, in the end I think the majority will be worse off.

    You have seen through the Illusion of Prosperity magic trick. Well done!

    Here's the trick in a nutshell.

    Start with the theory that the majority will be worse off. Second, assume it doesn't matter whether we get inflation or deflation. Then describe conditions that would make this true.

    Outsource those jobs! Wars! Flood the world with our paper dollar IOUs! Collapse those stock and housing prices! Drive medical costs higher! Offer something for nothing fixes!

    It's a pretty simple magic trick come to think of it. Just wait until I start up the Illusion of Solvency blog though. There'll be some serious magic in that one! I'll also have a new name of course.

    TarpNationary Mark

    There'll also be a catch phrase of course, replacing the ever popular Mission Accomplished.

    What in TarpNation?!?!

    Definition:

    How the @#$% did we forget to throw money at THAT problem!!

    ReplyDelete
  127. Stag,

    What in TarpNation?!?!

    I like it. Very catchy. As an American, I love a good slogan. And slogans are critically important during periods of economic strife.

    Here's one that could fit on a button: (i)coli! (increase cost of living immediately).

    I think it gets to the root of our most pressing problem too. Nobody wants to live in a world without inflation. Quite frankly, we can't afford a world without inflation. Just imagine how difficult it would be to sell sham investments without inflation. Way too difficult. Unnecessarily difficult.

    It seems we have an abundance of solutions. Perhaps we just need to identify more problems. And if for some reason we're having trouble identifying problems, Uncle Sam will be there to step in and create problems that even a dingbat could identify. I love the new (e)CONomy.

    ReplyDelete
  128. MAB,

    Here's one that could fit on a button: (i)coli! (increase cost of living immediately).

    LOL!

    And if for some reason we're having trouble identifying problems, Uncle Sam will be there to step in and create problems that even a dingbat could identify. I love the new (e)CONomy.

    I'm thinking the new "Car Czars" will spot the problems. It would be nice if we could spot them in a crowd though. Perhaps they could wear "dingbat" buttons.

    DINGBAT - Depression Increases Net Government Bureaucratic Auto Tzars

    Right now, there's talk of just the one Tzar, but let's go ahead and make several thousand buttons just in case. Better safe than sorry.

    ReplyDelete
  129. Stag,

    Better safe than sorry.

    I've been thinking the same thing. We've dug ourselves into a deep, deep hole. I'm not sure a Czar is gonna do the trick. I'm thinking we need "Deities."

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Deity

    A Car Deity, a TARP Deity a Housing Deity and of course a Printing Press Deity.

    Basically the Deity thing is just an extension of Paulson's bazooka theory.

    ReplyDelete
  130. Stag,

    I can't wait to see these new logos on stadiums.

    http://www.businesspundit.com/after-the-crisis-a-parody-of-15-corporate-logos/

    ReplyDelete
  131. MAB,

    I've been thinking the same thing. We've dug ourselves into a deep, deep hole. I'm not sure a Czar is gonna do the trick. I'm thinking we need "Deities."

    I offer a few nominations.

    Kurtz as Housing Deity
    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Apocalypse_Now

    They state that Kurtz, once considered a model officer and future general, has allegedly gone insane...

    ...warlord-demigod role.

    Housing is seriously messed up. We don't want to fool around with this one. I say stick with someone with a can do attitude.

    Pandora as TARP Deity
    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pandora

    According to the myth, Pandora opened a jar (pithos) in modern accounts referred to as "Pandora's box", releasing all the evils of mankind— although the particular evils are not specified in detail — leaving only Hope inside once she had closed it again.

    Pandora's box? Paulson's tarp? Which one is which? I swear there was $700 billion at one point!! Now all we get is hope? Damn! I think we've been swindled!

    Verdelet as Car Deity
    http://www.shanmonster.com/witch/deities/verdelet.html

    "Verdelet was something of a cross between a maitre d' and a transportation coordinator. He was master of ceremonies in Hell, and also shouldered the responsibility of making sure witches on Earth got to their sabbats safely and on time (Masello 44).

    As a bonus, he can step in and rescue our restaurant industry as well.

    Astaroth as Printing Press Deity
    http://www.monstropedia.org/index.php?title=Astaroth

    It is thought that this powerful grand-duke presides over 40 legions, and possibly over the East and is treasurer of hell. His main assistants are four demons called Aamon, Pruslas, Barbatos and Rashaverak. According to Sebastian Michaelis he is a demon of the First Hierarchy, who seduces by means of laziness and vanity, and his adversary is St. Bartholomew, who can protect against him for he has resisted Astaroth's temptations.

    That seducing by means of laziness and vanity is going to come in quite handy I think. I'm picturing the sales pitch.

    Instead of looking for work, why don't I just print you some money. Hold on. Verdelet is on the phone. He seems to think you'd look really good in a red convertible. Maybe I should print you some extra money. Is that something you might like? Hold on. Now Kurtz is calling me. He's watching a snail crawl along the edge of a straight razor. I guess that means he wants me to print some extra money so that you can buy a brand new house. It isn't a problem. I can't print this stuff at essentially no cost.

    ReplyDelete
  132. MAB,

    http://illusionofprosperity.blogspot.com/2007/09/payday-loan-center-payback-musical.html

    This dead thread from the past continues to attract scavengers.

    I could sure use a Carrion Czar.

    ReplyDelete
  133. Stag,

    I could sure use a Carrion Czar.

    It's good to see we still have some businesses are able to "carry on" in our "carrion" (e)CONomy.

    So far I haven't heard of any pay day loan companies accessing the TARP. Seems like there is a sustainable financial business model after all.

    There's always a bull(sh%t) market somewhere. Maybe I'll email Cramer.

    Come to think of it, we could all use a Carrion Czar. Cashloancity could be an ideal fit. I'll email CONgress too.

    ReplyDelete
  134. Stag,

    Stocks down, dollar down, oil & commodities way up. Super, it sounds like big rock candy mountain.

    That's an ugly mixture. Bernanke's worst nightmare.

    ReplyDelete
  135. MAB,

    It's good to see we still have some businesses are able to "carry on" in our "carrion" (e)CONomy.

    Madoff's Money
    http://www.forbes.com/opinions/2008/12/14/madoff-jewish-ponzi-oped-cx_pdb_1214broughton.html

    His investment strategy was a "black-box" model, one to which no one but him had access. And yet when the returns were good, no one bothered to ask how he was making them.

    Yeah, but was it funny? Sarcasm and gallows humor go a long way in my world.

    The details are already rich and in some ways hilarious.

    Nice!

    Now back to more of the real world.

    Stocks down, dollar down, oil & commodities way up. Super, it sounds like big rock candy mountain.

    That's an ugly mixture. Bernanke's worst nightmare.


    I would have thought Bernanke's worst nightmare would have been seeing tanks rolling out as people talk about ways to prop up the fatherland.

    Adolf Hitler
    http://www.historylearningsite.co.uk/adolf_hitler.htm

    Hyperinflation ruined the middle class. The poor had little and they lost most of the little they had. The rich lost a lot but as rich people they could keep their heads above water. The middle class did not have the cash reserves of the rich but they led comfortable lives. These lives were now ruined by hyperinflation and they blamed the government.

    Ah, THAT'S what you meant. I think we're on the same page here after all.

    As for rolling out tanks and propping up the fatherland that's probably just crazy talk though.

    Stimulus Package To First Pay for Routine Repairs
    http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/story/2008/12/13/ST2008121301896.html

    President-elect Barack Obama calls it "the largest new investment in our national infrastructure since the creation of the federal highway system in the 1950s."

    True Cost of Military Industrial Complex
    http://www.opednews.com/articles/True-Cost-of-Military-Indu-by-Jim-Quinn-081213-651.html

    The United States, the only superpower remaining on earth, currently spends more on military than the next 45 highest spending countries in the world combined. The U.S. accounts for 48% of the world’s total military spending. Where did the peace dividend from winning the Cold War go?

    Guns and butter, baby. Yeah, that's what I'm talking about.

    Guns versus butter model
    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Guns_versus_butter_model

    Perhaps the best known actual usage (in translation) was in Nazi Germany. In a speech on January 17, 1936, Minister of Propaganda Joseph Goebbels stated: "We can do without butter, but, despite all our love of peace, not without arms. One cannot shoot with butter, but with guns." Sometime in the summer of the same year, Hermann Goering announced in a speech, "Guns will make us powerful; butter will only make us fat."

    Yeah, but this isn't Germany. It is still crazy talk.

    The Bush Doctrine of Foreign Affairs
    http://www.cafepress.com/warposter/151626

    Attack Attack Iraq
    http://www.cafepress.com/warposter/62203

    Join the Homeland Security Services (HSS)
    http://www.cafepress.com/warposter/62217

    Those aren't even real posters. That's hardly proof of anything.

    ReplyDelete
  136. Stag,

    I see the Fed unveiled the perpetual wealth machine today.

    Banks can borrow at zero percent from the Fed and then buy treasuries with positive yields. Add some leverage and voila! - your talkin some serious bank.

    Now I understand why you suspended the blog.

    Two more things. First, this Madoff guy "made off" with a lot of money. The name is too perfect. Way better than Ross "Gittin(s) rich or Art "Cashin" in.

    Second, I'm going long on personal time and double short on vanity. Time is clearly way more valuable than money.

    ReplyDelete
  137. Stag,

    Bernanke needs one of these. Automatic global liquidity. As George Foreman would say: "set it and forget it."

    https://www.buyaquaglobes.com/?cid=498529

    In the interim, a can of "Leak Ender 2000" would be helpful.

    ReplyDelete
  138. MAB,

    Now I understand why you suspended the blog.

    I once again see that I was too optimistic. I assumed that we could destroy our currency at least as fast as consumer demand dried up, thereby propping up the nominal price of most investments.

    Perhaps this recent surge of currency destruction will fit the bill though, assuming the bill can display trillions.

    In other news, TIP is up about 4% in the past two days. I've never seen anything like it. Wow. It's almost like real yields are dying again. I'm almost back to break even (plus the rather decent payouts I have received). Woohoo!

    The Death of Real Yields Anti-Bubble™ sure appears to be unpopping. Real yields once again seem to be headed for the toilet. I'm very excited about that as you can imagine. For those just tuning in...

    Keeping interest rates too low for too long turned me bearish in 2004. Just imagine what this latest nearly permanent ZIRP plan will do!

    Bernanke needs one of these. Automatic global liquidity.

    That might be what he needs, but this is what he's got.

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Saturday_Night_Live_commercials

    Big Red - a toy Viking figure that spins around, spraying red liquid from of the horns of a stereotypical Viking helmet (absurdist parody of 'water sprinkler' type toys). Furthermore, the liquid is revealed to be hazardous as evidenced by the thick utility gloves included in the package included to clean up the resulting mess from the toy.

    ReplyDelete
  139. Stag,

    In other news, TIP is up about 4% in the past two days. I've never seen anything like it. Wow. It's almost like real yields are dying again. I'm almost back to break even (plus the rather decent payouts I have received). Woohoo!

    Dead as fried chicken imo.

    So many have lost so much. Anything around break even is a victory.

    Want proof? Check out how all the "above average" day traders are doing.

    http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/081217/e_trade_financial_assets.html

    The game looks simple. That's why so many lose. Average is not average when it comes to investing. Or (in my case) non-investing.

    I'm still in the bunker with both kidneys fortunately. That candy mountain of debt "still" spooks me. For the time being, I want the fed as a buffer between my assets and joe six pack's liabilities.

    I "still" don't see how the average consumer can ever repay their borrowings. I really don't.

    I can see inflation or deflation. Prosperity has left the building.

    ReplyDelete
  140. Stag,

    More proof:

    http://biz.yahoo.com/ms/081217/268433.html?.v=2

    We're gonna need bigger mattresses.

    ReplyDelete
  141. MAB,

    The game looks simple. That's why so many lose.

    They sure make it look simple in TV ads. First, I'll be trading like the pros! Woohoo! Second, how can I possibly lose if I can backtest the data a full ten years? I can't think of anything that would predict the future better than that!

    Come to think of it, I can't really think of anything that can predict the future. Come to think of it again, the pros aren't really doing all that well lately.

    From your last link...

    Oppenheimer Bond Funds Battle a Towering Wall of Flames

    What the hell is not freezing over!

    Not 10 ... This One Goes to 11

    Looks like we need a Spinal TARP!

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HQZi7tmWhR4

    Thank you. Thank you very much. You've been a great audience.

    ReplyDelete
  142. Stag,

    This has been kicking around on the internet.

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=99Dzdc1H0wM

    Could inflation be our salvation (again)? It worked for Zimbabwe.

    It's odd that we have zero interest rates, yet no "credible threat" to print money. What gives Ben?

    It's like Chinese water torture. Mmaybe we are just trying to save face.

    ReplyDelete
  143. MAB,

    I think I unlocked more of Da Bernanke Code. I searched for "save face" and this is what I found.

    California Cuts Off $3.8 Billion Funding Over Budget (Update1)
    http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=a2QWN5ro8ax4&refer=home

    “California’s fiscal house is burning down,” Treasurer Bill Lockyer said in a statement.

    Other than that, things are looking pretty good.

    “The people still wait for their elected leaders to pull them out of the fire, stop the blaze and rebuild the house on a solid, lasting foundation....

    People in hell are still waiting for ice water.

    ...Until that happens, the infrastructure work so vital to getting our economy back on track will lie crippled.”

    Maybe they could just donate the crippled economy to charity?

    Horse market hurt by economy, rising hay prices
    http://www.selahnews.com/articles/947/1/Horse-market-hurt-by-economy-rising-hay-prices/Page1.html

    “If you have a crippled horse, you have to pay to get rid of them,” Hart said.

    Oops. There has got to be a way though. Perhaps fight fire with fire?

    Fire marshal targets arson prevention
    http://nwanews.com/nwat/News/72132/

    The U.S. Fire Administration lists the economy as a top motive behind arson. Insurance fraud, debt removal, direct monetary gain, elimination of unwanted ownership and land assembly for development are among the main economic motives behind arson.

    Burning Down the [Fiscal] House
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=st1lH8zcIuQ

    Hold tight. Wait 'til the party's over. Hold tight. We're in for nasty weather. There has got to be a way. Burning down the house.

    Gotta love those talking heads.

    ReplyDelete
  144. Bernanke must be very pleased with himself. My TIP fund is back to break even. The high real yields have vanished and will offer less temptation for savers to save. I figured it would just be a matter of time, but I didn't need to be nearly as patient as I thought I would need to be.

    It isn't inflation that drove it though. Check out the ultra long-term TLT fund. The die hard deflationists made out like bandits.

    http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=TLT&t=my

    Holy frickin' cow. Price stability? I think not.

    Savers have been arbitraged. One would have to think there isn't much left for them. The world wanted what they had and the world had more than enough dollars to take it from them.

    As of today, savers can now lock in 2.54% on the 30-Year Treasury Bond. On the off chance that inflation averages what the Fed wants it to average over the next 30 years, one would think the savings party is about over.

    Where's the cash on the sidelines going to go now? Inquiring minds really want to know. Bernanke wants it to go into houses. There's certainly a ton of it out there. (Huge understatement. "It" would weigh MUCH more than a ton if offered in $100 bills and simlilarly absurd if "it" was offered in housing units.)

    Yet, you can still get a 1.97% yield on the 20-Year TIPS. That's after inflation.

    The market clearly sees deflation and/or no inflation for as far as the eye can see. I'm certainly not convinced. Within the last year oil was nearly $150 and only going higher. Now the market clearly thinks cheap oil is here for good. My what short attention spans we seem to have.

    I think I finally get it now. Nobody should ever study the Great Depression in great detail while simultaneously reading Edgar Allen Poe.

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Pit_and_the_Pendulum

    ...The pendulum is inexorably sliding downwards and will eventually kill him. However the condemned man is able to attract rats to his bonds with meat left for him to eat and they start chewing through the ropes. As the pendulum reaches a point inches above his heart, the prisoner breaks free of the ropes and watches as the pendulum is drawn back to the ceiling.

    He then sees that the walls have become red-hot and begun moving inwards, driving him into the center of the room and towards the brink of the pit. As he gazes into the pit, he decides that no fate could be worse than falling into it. It is implied by the text that the narrator fears what he sees at the bottom of the pit, or perhaps is frightened by its depth. The exact cause of his fear is not clearly stated....


    Pit (Depression) and Pendulum (Volatility) Economics for the win. That's what we've got now. Heaven help us all the next time the pendulum changes course again. Oh, and I should probably mention something about the walls.

    He finds a way to escape but the burning iron walls of his prison start to move and close in on him, pushing him closer and closer to falling into the pit.

    For some strange reason it reminds me of California.

    More California Towns Face Bankruptcy
    http://online.wsj.com/article/SB122954346309915189.html?mod=special_page_campaign2008_mostpop

    "California's fiscal house is burning down," State Treasurer Bill Lockyer said in a statement.

    We're creating debt in biblical proportions to save ourselves from a debt problem. If the solution seems as bad as the problem, that's probably because the solution and the problem are exactly the same thing. Just my opinion of course.

    ReplyDelete
  145. Stag,

    Holy frickin' cow.

    We've got a mad cow diseased eCONomy.

    It seems the great moderation has unmoderated at a most inCONvenient time - just as the boomers were readying for their happy golden years. More like "Golden Arches" years. Feeling sad? Have a "Happy Meal" it will cheer you up. Do you want cheese on that cheese burger? Huh... Gotta love the service eCONomy.

    Price stability? I think not. It turns out stability led to an amplified instability. Go figure. Bernanke is now trying a new tact - stability through instability.

    The new (e)CONomy is so counter-intuitive. It really is different this time. Sigh.

    I'm still short vanity and long free time.

    ReplyDelete
  146. MAB,

    The new (e)CONomy is so counter-intuitive. It really is different this time. Sigh.

    Historic [different this] times!

    December 1, 2008
    Table Stakes
    http://www.cfo.com/article.cfm/12668072/c_12671474

    ..."I don't think anyone has ever seen anything like this," he says. "These are truly historic times."

    In a bad way, that is. As the economy slides deeper into recession, casual full-service restaurants, which were among the first businesses to feel the tremors of impending collapse, are hungry for customers....


    As seen in TIPS, real yields shot up again today. Deflation is apparently back on the "table" again.

    Remember those tools they are using to pull our economy out of its funk?

    You can fine tuna fish, but you can't fine tune a bazooka!

    ReplyDelete
  147. More from that last link...

    Too Much of Everything
    As the tide of consumer spending recedes, the weaknesses of the casual-dining sector have been exposed. Foremost among them is overexpansion, fueled in the past few years by cheap credit. The consensus among analysts is that there are simply too many restaurants, which Paul attributes to a prevailing "take-the-hill mentality." As chains sized up new locations they rarely worried whether a Red Lobster or Ruby Tuesday was already next door; the thinking was "our concept is good, our food is better," says Paul. "For a while, it seemed to work, but you couldn't support 4 or 5 percent growth per unit when demand was rising only 1, 2, or maybe 3 percent."


    I've been bearish on restaurants long-term and still am no matter what happens. Inflation? Deflation? Doesn't matter. I guess I'm not alone.

    Too much of everything! Too much capacity in nearly every industry meets too much capacity in modern monetary printing presses. That's yet another example of the two wrongs trying to make a right theory. It's just another way of saying deflationary Great Depression meets inflationary 1970s.

    This takes me back to something Cramer once said in his mind-boggling bad Winners of the New World. He had many of the little pictures right, but managed to completely miss the big picture entirely.

    February 29, 2000
    The Winners of the New World
    http://www.thestreet.com/funds/smarter/891820.html

    Fourth, it just destroys retail as we know it. Why? Because the companies that embrace the Web more vigorously will eventually be pitted against other companies that embrace the Web more vigorously, creating a virtual constant price war, the kind of war that Marx, of all, actually predicted would happen to capitalism. It will happen to retail once everyone realizes that...

    Capitalism is and has been seriously tested since he wrote that nearly nine years ago. The results don't look all that good.

    So, if you can't own the retailers, and you can't own transports, and you can't own banks and brokers and financials and you can't own commodity makers and you can't own the newspapers, and you can't own the machinery stocks, what can you own?

    A-ha, that just leaves us with tech. That's why we keep coming back to it. That's why, despite the 80% increase in the Nasdaq last year, we are looking at another record year now.


    If we count 99 holy frickin' cows from the herd and see that they all have mad cow disease then what are the odds the 100th one does too? Pretty darned small in my book!

    It's a crazy man's book. I probably should point that out.

    ReplyDelete
  148. This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.

    ReplyDelete
  149. Stag,

    Pretty darned small in my book!

    Impossibly small if you believe that there is always a bull market somewhere. If 99 out of 100 investments are diseased mad cow bears, the last one has to be a bull.

    It looks like the fed is truly in a battle royale with deflation. Imagine the bust we would be seeing under a gold backed currency. Short it all to zero.

    Investors the world over are suddenly realizing that their wealth is backed by the frighteningly dubious portion of the fractional reserve system. A rude awakening it seems.

    It's become quite clear that the Fed will indeed do anything and everything to prevent a deflationary bust. We either inflate or the system implodes.

    It wouldn't surprise me if the Fed started accepting mad cows as collateral.

    If quantitative easing doesn't work, try "Quantitative (Dis)easing!"

    It's part of DUH! Bernanke Code - Prions instead or priors.

    I've been mulling over a thought. All the foolish lending wasn't a mistake, it was an inevitable consequence of a system that absolutely must expand exponentially. With that in mind, the next leg of exponential credit expansion ought to be really scary (and damaging to wealth).

    Maybe we should just lend directly to the mad cows.

    ReplyDelete
  150. Stag,

    http://www.chrismartenson.com/dr_albert_bartlett

    Interesting piece in case you haven't already read it.

    ReplyDelete
  151. MAB,

    If 99 out of 100 investments are diseased mad cow bears, the last one has to be a bull....

    ...s@#t?

    Short it all to zero....

    ...and then sum?

    Investors the world over are suddenly realizing that their wealth is backed by the frighteningly dubious portion of the fractional reserve system....

    ...failure?

    It wouldn't surprise me if the Fed started accepting mad cows as collateral....

    ...damage?

    From your link...

    Now, you are important people because you can think. If there’s anything that is in short supply in the world today, it’s people who are willing to think. So here’s a challenge. Can you think of any problem, on any scale, from microscopic to global, whose long term solution is in any demonstratable way, aided, assisted, or advanced by having larger populations in our local levels, state levels, national level, or global level? Can you think of anything that can get better if we crowd more people into our cities, our towns, into our state, our nation, or on this earth?

    I am a big fan of exponential growth though! Well, that and sarcasm!

    Exponential Growth and Immortality!
    http://illusionofprosperity.blogspot.com/2007/09/exponential-growth-and-immortality.html

    Now let's assume we buy a penny's worth of TIPS and continually reinvest. Let's also assume we live forever, or at the very least pass this savings down to our grandchildren (and so on and so on). Why not! Let's be optimistic for a change.

    So how much money will we have made off of that penny in a million years?

    Future Worth = $0.01 x 1.01^1000000 = $2.365 x 10^4319

    That's a number with 4,320 digits in it. Mwuhahahahaha! We are going to be so filthy rich we won't know what to do with ourselves!!! That's in inflation adjusted dollars too! Just think of all the canned goods we'll be able to hoard!!


    That's just what a 1% real yield after taxes would do. Since it clearly isn't sustainable over the next million years, one must start to wonder when it will begin to break. I'm predicting four years ago, but that's just a wild guess.

    Of course, the stock market has offered real yields well in excess of 1% after taxes for quite a few decades in a row. Just think what THAT will be worth in a million years!* WAMOO!**

    *This financial model assumes that the last decade was simply a prosperity hiccup and can therefore be safely removed from the long-term prosperity analysis.

    **Term not intended to show the joy of mad cow disease infecting a banking system.

    ReplyDelete
  152. I'm predicting four years ago, but that's just a wild guess.

    According to the "experts" there is no need to guess. Just let the markets do the predicting for you. You know the old saw - "markets are forward looking."

    Just look at the markets' predictive powers in 1929, 1966, 2000. Foward looking into the abyss it seems.

    The inflection points expose the so-called "experts" as shammers.

    In the land of the blind, the one eyed man is king.

    ReplyDelete
  153. According to the "experts" there is no need to guess. Just let the markets do the predicting for you. You know the old saw - "markets are forward looking."

    Yeah, the market looks forward. It once looked forward to really, really BIG future returns! It now looks forward to having the living you know what beat out of it.

    Here's a sample chart.

    http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=JSDA&t=5y

    November 08, 2004
    Jones Soda Co. Launches Five New Holiday Flavors
    http://www.jonessoda.com/files/turkey04.html

    Seattle, WA, U.S.A. – Jones Soda Co. (the "Company" or "Jones Soda" or "Jones"), announces today its limited edition holiday pack of five new seasonal flavors which includes: Green Bean Casserole Soda, Mashed Potato & Butter Soda, Fruitcake Soda, Cranberry Soda and Turkey & Gravy Soda.

    Believe it or not, my pantry is full of Fruitcake Soda.

    If you are a gambling man, I'll even give you 1000-1 odds in the "believing it" side of the trade (vs. "believing it not"). You put up $1,000 and I'll give you $1,000,000 if I do indeed have a pantry full of Fruitcake Soda! Leverage baby!

    Hey, maybe we can use derivatives in a way that we both can win. We simply won't resolve the bet. I'll show a $1,000 profit on paper and you can show a $1,000,000 profit on paper. We could then sell these paper profit IOUs to others and remove our individual risk entirely! I'll seal the pantry so nobody can see the contents. We wouldn't want to confuse investors.

    We could split the profits and earn $500,500 each! However, why stop there?

    With $1,001,000 in pure paper profits we could start our own hedge fund. Slap a 20-1 P/E on it and that fund could easily be worth twenty million dollars!

    Let's call it the Fruitcake High Yield Opportunities Fund so we blend right in.

    ReplyDelete
  154. Stag,

    Perhaps Jones Soda needs a kidney flavored beverage.

    Everyone easily remembers the rare fortunes made from investing in Hansen Natural yet they continually disregard the more common and huge losses from the likes of Jones Soda. It's no wonder most investors lose money.

    I saw Laslo Birinyi on Bloomberg a week or so ago. According to his research, since 1961 the average mutual fund "investor" has achieved annual returns of just 0.5%. Not only less than inflation, but less than the fees charged!

    Can you believe they still call it the financial "services" industry?
    Financial memories are not only short, they are intellectually dishonest.

    Our debt money system and its need for continual exponential expansion has fooled so many. Instead of seeking out productive investments, most would have been better off seeking ways to protect themselves from inflation.

    I saw Buffett on TV recently fielding questions from MBA students. Buffett was very careful to describe his work as "allocating capital" rather than investing. The distinction went entirely unnoticed.

    The following article frames the investment landscape over the past 40 years quite accurately imo.

    http://www.counterpunch.org/hudson12232008.html

    Economically, have we advanced or regressed over the past 40 years? One could certainly make a strong argument that we have become economic fruitcakes. Positively nutty.

    Happy holidays!

    ReplyDelete
  155. MAB,

    From your link...

    Governments have replaced industrial growth with purely financial wealth creation in the form of a real estate and stock market bubble.

    I keep having flashbacks to 2004.

    How the heck is building ourselves a LOT more houses going to close the enormous trade deficit gap?

    In hindsight, the only way to seemingly close the trade deficit gap was to simply let the economy implode. Oil finally got cheaper anyway.

    What's going to happen to our economy once we've built enough houses?

    In hindsight, it implodes.

    Assuming this is what we want, all we really need to do is start building more houses again. The Illusion of Prosperity can be replaced by the Permanency of Implosion.

    WAMU!

    Oops, I meant woohoo! Sorry about that.

    Have a Great Depress... oops, Holiday Season!

    ReplyDelete
  156. MAB,

    Struggling Sears: The GM of retail
    http://articles.moneycentral.msn.com/Investing/Extra/sears-the-gm-of-retailers.aspx

    Of course, no one who works on Wall Street actually shops at Sears or Kmart. These geniuses fell in love with the potential for financial engineering...

    Gotta keep beating the dead horse, of course, of course. It seems like only six months ago we were both heckled for heckling Sears. Oh wait. I guess that's because it was only six months ago. Using hindsight, six months ago was a fine time to heckle.

    http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=SHLD&t=1y

    They say that opportunity knocks only once. However, thanks to productivity miracles a doorbell was installed in 1980. It rang constantly for twenty years. In 2000, something changed though. I don't think I'm just imagining it. There's a LOT of yellow police tape and chalk outlines outside. It seems we fell off the gold standard and that eventually led to problems of utmost gravity. Further, we've been experiencing a great deal of friendly fire and collateral damage lately.

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Friendly_fire

    Use of the term "friendly fire" is appropriate where there was intent to do harm to the enemy which causes injury to one's own side: a death resulting from a negligent discharge is not considered friendly fire.

    Kill "it" Bernanke! Make sure "it" doesn't happen here!

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Collateral_damage

    Collateral damage is damage that is unintended or incidental to the intended outcome.

    I have no doubts we'll be seeing a lot more of that in the future, especially as unemployment ticks higher.

    ReplyDelete
  157. Barron's is protecting the savvy investors again.

    Beware the House of Cards
    http://www.smartmoney.com/Investing/Stocks/Beware-the-House-of-Cards/?afl=yahoo

    What house of cards? They are mostly laying on the table after that last gust of wind.

    AS BAD AS things are in the financial sector, America's credit-card companies may not have seen the half of it.

    I think they have seen the half of it. Capital One is more than 50% off its 52-week high. D'oh!

    Thanks for the heads up Barron's. Let's use the hindsight time machine, shall we? Savvy investors must have made out like bandits.

    June 19, 2006
    Bet the Bank
    http://online.barrons.com/article/SB115050721498083130.html?mod=googlebarrons

    Capital One's aggressive push into the banking business has made some investors nervous. But the credit-card company's record quarterly profits are an early sign that the transformation makes good sense.

    Bet that bank, baby. Bet it.

    Some investors think Capital One eventually will shift from acquirer to acquired. "If Capital One were to stumble and have integration problems, a larger bank could come in and take them out," says Peter Kovalski of Alpine Dynamic Financial Services Fund. "The perfect match," in his opinion, "would be Wachovia," which has a number of complementary operations.

    Here's a glimpse of the perfect match and its complementary operations.

    http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=WB&t=5y

    ReplyDelete
  158. Stag,

    They say that opportunity knocks only once.

    They also say that destiny turns on a "dime." Or in this case, the 3rd "quarter" - d'oh boy!

    http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_8rpY5fQK-UQ/SVNCrAq1GdI/AAAAAAAAFUE/wNvCOAZMX9Y/s1600-h/borrow.png

    You'll never see that chart on Kudlow & Company. The free market in kleptocracy is alive and well!

    Kill "it" Bernanke! Make sure "it" doesn't happen here!

    It's definitely a (dead) horse race between debt destruction and fed credit creation. However, since the Fed's balance sheet is "infinite", in theory Bernanke should be able to prevent a deflation. The "infinite" part really bugs me. Sure it will all work out on paper, but I'm certain it won't be as neat and clean at family dinner tables across America.

    In any event, I'm no longer willing to spend my life calculating things to three decimal places while the Fed & Treasury guarantee bogus promises to the tune of well over 50% of GDP. NFW!

    Bernanke better hope more and more people don't conclude the same thing. Just how big will the Fed's balance sheet be if household debt levels shrink back to 50% of GDP vs the 120% of today?

    I'm going long free time and short vanity.

    My time is now worth way way more than their money.

    ReplyDelete
  159. MAB,

    Bernanke better hope more and more people don't conclude the same thing.

    Ponzi schemes do require confidence, don't they?

    That's some chart you've got there. I'm tempted to think that the "red" (Federal Government) part represents hell and the "blue" (Household sectors) part represents the handbasket.

    Pushing on a string (phrase)
    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pushing_on_a_string_(phrase)

    The phrase is also used in regard to asymmetrical influence in other contexts; for example, in 1976 a labor statistician, writing in the New York Times about Carter's policies, wrote that in today's economy, reducing unemployment by stimulating employment has become more and more like pushing on a string.

    If the last half of the 1970s and/or the current size of the proposed stimulus packages are any indicator, string pushing is very expensive work.

    It's definitely a (dead) horse race between debt destruction and fed credit creation. However, since the Fed's balance sheet is "infinite", in theory Bernanke should be able to prevent a deflation.

    Hey, maybe that can make us all winners. I'm picturing a joint venture between Apple and our government.

    iTARP - Infinite Troubled Assets Relief Program

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  160. Stag,

    Your Eddie Lampert/Sears heckling made me remember a funny SNL skit:

    http://www.videosift.com/video/Bad-Idea-Jeans

    Wait a minute, I've got it! I'm going to buy Sears. No wait, I'm going to buy Sears and Kmart and combine them into a super awesome retailer. Who says two wrongs don't make a right. Look-out Walmart & Costco! Somebody stop me, it gets even better. Let's take our fleeting earnings and buy the shares or our super awesome CONglomerate. Perpetual motion - woohoo!

    Perhaps we need a bad idea czar.

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  161. MAB,

    Perhaps we need a bad idea czar.

    I think we've had plenty. What's one more?

    Open House
    February 5, 2005
    http://edition.cnn.com/TRANSCRIPTS/0502/05/oh.03.html

    WILLIS (voice-over): And that is just a fraction of what he owns nationwide. Billionaire Sam Zell controls hundreds of thousands of apartments and close to 130 million square feet of office space. He's considered the nation's biggest landlord and arguably one of the most successful real estate developers of all time.

    And, despite rumblings of interest rate hikes and fears of housing bubbles, he remains bullish on real estate.


    Then there's this of course.

    DAVID LEREAH, NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS: I think price appreciation will begin to slow, which is actually good news for the housing markets...

    And this...

    ZELL: In the 40 or 50 years I've been in the business, I've heard about all kinds of housing bubbles, and I ain't seen one yet.

    And this...

    SHARON JAFFE, CENTURY 21 TODAY: If they wait five years, maybe they'll come out with a $10,000 or $20,000 profit, you know, in the house, and then be able to use that as a down payment for their next house.

    From your SNL skit...

    Hey, we're gutting our apartment.

    The thought of being a landlord has never really appealed to me. I think it is because I'm a believer in hoping for the best but planning for the worst. I'm not a very confrontational person (believe it or not) and the thought of asking people for rent money each month really doesn't appeal to me at all, especially if they don't have it.

    Down and thrown out
    http://www.myrtlebeachonline.com/news/local/story/722619.html

    As eviction filings soar, result hits those from all walks of life

    Many people bought investment properties during the housing boom in 2005 and 2006, relying on price appreciation and using rental income to pay the mortgage, taxes and insurance.

    Now, that plan often doesn't work because home values are falling, and there's stiff competition for tenants who can keep up with rent payments.

    "It's really squeezing the owners of these rental properties," Schunk said.


    That's not the worst though. I think this is the worst.

    $1M bond set in landlord's murder case
    http://news.cincinnati.com/article/20081230/NEWS0107/812300325

    CARTHAGE - Hamilton County Municipal Judge Ted Berry Monday ordered a Carthage landlord accused of fatally stabbing a former tenant during an argument over property held on $1 million bond.

    Yeah, that's exactly what I'm looking for in a stress-free job. Sit on the beach. Let the rent checks just pile up in the mail box. Bliss. Oh yeah, and occasionally stab my tenants over washer and dryer disputes. End up in prison for decades or more. No job is perfect. You've got to take the bad with the good of course.

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  162. MAB,

    Must see TV!

    Fred on the Economy
    http://blip.tv/file/1528079

    I love the prosperity!
    I love the sarcasm!

    I'm not particularly fond of where we are headed though. This handbasket is so crowded.

    ReplyDelete
  163. Economic crisis reverses flood of migrants in China
    http://www.iht.com/articles/2008/12/30/business/col31.php

    Officials estimate that more than 10 million migrant laborers have already returned to the countryside as thousands of companies have been dragged under by weak global demand for everything from clothes to cars.

    The government, always concerned about social instability, is on high alert, fearful of the consequences of a huge mass of jobless, disappointed, rootless young men.


    China, welcome to our 1930s style Great Depression. You've got the factories now.

    Impact of Financial Crisis on Chinese Economy Underestimated
    http://en.epochtimes.com/n2/content/view/9398/

    According to Cao’an, the economic and industrial structures in China relies on 70 percent on exports and 30 percent on domestic demand. He blames the abnormal development policies that overly emphasized foreign trade and exports, as well as a political system that created an extreme gap between rich and poor, for the severe economic situation in China.

    Income inequality and overcapacity make one heck of a Great Depression.

    China B-shares close little changed ahead of holidays; Vanke outperforms -UPDATE
    http://www.forbes.com/afxnewslimited/feeds/afx/2008/12/30/afx5866576.html

    'Investors have turned cautious ahead of the new year weekend in the absence of further support for the stock market,' a Shanghai-based analyst who asked not be identified said.

    Don't ask me why I quoted it. Is it the lack of further support? Ot is it that the analyst asked not to be identified? Who knows!

    Time for another flashback.

    August 31, 2007
    The Show Formerly Known as "The Ugly Show" Show - Episode 6
    http://illusionofprosperity.blogspot.com/2007/08/life-of-day-trader.html

    This was SO funny to me and still is, especially the Chinese stocks commentary starting at 1:20.

    ReplyDelete
  164. Financials make up 15% of the S&P 500 yet they account for 21% of S&P 500 dividends. It just slays me that TARP money is being used to pay dividends. Even worse, how about the TARP money that is being used to fund year end bonuses at financial firms - GRRRRR!

    http://www2.standardandpoors.com/spf/pdf/index/102108_DividendRateChange-PR.pdf

    More bad ideas. It must be in our "genes."

    ReplyDelete
  165. From your link:

    Cao’an believes, in the short term, instead of investing in slow-moving infrastructure construction projects, giving out cash to every citizen like Japan and Taiwan did will work faster.

    I'm speechless. Fortunately, I can still type.

    Thud! Thud! Thud! Thud! (sound of head banging on desk).

    Work faster at what? Seriously.

    Oh yeah, now I remember. Work faster at "competitive devaluation." You never want to be competitive. Success in a debt money system needs lots of uncompetitiveness (aka bad ideas) .

    I keep getting confused by this counter-intuitive thingy.

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  166. MAB,

    It just slays me that TARP money is being used to pay dividends.

    Rumor has it that the Treasury's TARP works in conjunction with a second top secret program. It's codename is RAT-TRAP.

    Rob All Taxpayers - Transmogrify Risky Asset Program

    Cool and calm he may be, but 'helicopter Ben' likes to spring surprises
    http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2008/dec/18/ben-bernanke-character-economy

    Colleagues say that his demure demeanour disguises a penchant for bold action and an ability to deliver surprises - such as this week's radical move in cutting interest rates to nearly zero.

    Greenspan offered 1% cheese back in 2004. This is MUCH better. First, 0% can yield infinite mountains of cheese! Second, the cheese will taste just like candy!

    There's also rumors of a third top secrect program in place, but it seems very unlikely that it will be implemented in 2008. There just isn't that much time left. It is codenamed KIDNEYS. Look for it in 2009.

    Kill "It" (Deflation) Now as Earning Yields Shrink

    Believe it or not, this whole implosion was actually caused by a fourth program unknown to even the most senior members of the Fed and Treasury. The program's name is BLACKBRIAR and was secretly activated in 2007.

    Bernanke Learns Assets Can't Keep Booming Reliably In A Recession

    What is Operation Blackbriar? You want to tell me or should I call Kramer and ask him? - Pamela Landy, The Bourne Ultimatum

    The last thing we need to do is call Cramer. Trust me on this one.

    Oh come on. You've seen the raw intel, Pam. You know how real the danger is. We need these programs now. - Noah Vosen, The Bourne Ultimatum

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  167. MAB,

    Thud! Thud! Thud! Thud! (sound of head banging on desk).

    Get ready for some more of that. My forehead took some damage today.

    I was watching CNBC. Thud!

    There was a guy on there telling us how the hedge funds would grow again in 2009. Thud!

    Want to know what his primary argument was?

    *drum roll*

    He claims most pension funds assumed something on the order of 6% returns going forward. 2008 was not kind to them. They'll now NEED to earn 10% or more.

    THUD! THUD!! THUD!!! THUD!!!!

    ReplyDelete
  168. MAB,

    Must...install...forehead...pad...

    Gain some leverage with ETFs
    http://articles.moneycentral.msn.com/Investing/MutualFunds/gain-some-leverage-with-etfs.aspx

    It's time for investors to get aggressive if we want to get back what we've lost.

    While the advice might end up being good in hindsight, I can't help but think...

    1. I'd be taking advice from someone who actually lost.
    2. I see leverage as the problem, not the solution.
    3. The casino continues to be open for business.
    4. If you lose money in the casino, simply bet more next time?

    Thud! Thud! Thud! Thud!

    ReplyDelete
  169. Stag,

    Don't even get me started on how we're planning to fund Social Security and Medicare.

    I don't mean to get you started, but I have an idea on how we can mitigate the looming medicare funding crisis. My idea is to reduce the need for medicare and thus the funding issue will be more manageable.

    Besides. we need more science eduction in this country anyway.

    I figure we can close the education gap and our funding gap by using our world class propaganda skills.

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Christian_science

    Another win win.

    ReplyDelete
  170. MAB,

    I figure we can close the education gap and our funding gap by using our world class propaganda skills.

    I propose Operation Bagnation. If we could keep the stock market propped up then that money wouldn't eventually find its way into things you'd put in a bag, such as canned goods, precious metals, toilet paper, and ammunition.

    Operation Bagration
    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Bagration

    The operation "was the most calamitous defeat of all the German armed forces in World War II".

    Nevermind. It was just a thought. Hey, maybe we could get the children involved though, especially since we're borrowing their future?

    Hitler Youth
    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hitler_youth

    The HJ maintained training academies comparable to preparatory schools. They were designed to nurture future Nazi Party leaders, and only the most radical and devoted HJ members could expect to attend.

    Wow! I'm just full of REALLY, REALLY bad ideas today. Sorry about that.

    Your idea really does sound like a win win, at least by comparison. I'm already tempted to look to the universe for help.

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Et_jG58qg1k

    Today, we're going to end the war in Iraq by lying on the beach. Then, we're going to end world hunger by going surfing. And finally, we're going to end global warming by having breast implants and facelifts. Welcome to California.

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  171. This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.

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