Tuesday, July 30, 2013

"The Most Important Thing"

July 3, 2013
6 ways the Fed hurts retirees

"The most important thing investors can do right now is ensure that they are properly positioned for the impending rising interest rate environment." - Nathan Kubik, a Certified Investment Management Analyst at Carnick & Kubik


Click to enlarge.

As seen in the chart, the peak was set on July 5, 2013 (the very next trading day after his quote). The exponential trend in red failed and a new exponential trend in blue took its place. How long the new trend lasts is anyone's guess, but as a long-term believer in death of real yields theories, I'd be more tempted to buy 10-year treasuries than sell them right now.

I wonder what it takes to become a certified investment management analyst at Carnick & Kubik? Perhaps having the name Carnick or Kubik helps? Zing! ;)

In all seriousness, hindsight clearly shows that "most important" and "impending" were both opinions, not facts. It never fails to amaze me how much the financial "experts" can't seem to tell the difference.

Source Data:
St. Louis Fed: Custom Chart

3 comments:

  1. Troy,

    More money printed, more money to chase yields lower.

    Ain't that weird.

    Yeah, I guess it all comes down to who gets the money. Trickle down economics should be called leaky faucet economics. There's a lot of monetary pressure in the pipes but very little actual flow. Drip, drip, drip. Sigh.

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  2. Any comment on rates now that they have actually moved up?

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  3. Anonymous,

    Yeah, I do.

    I'm fairly sure that Bernanke just made it clear that this economy can't handle 3% rates today. ;)

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