The model is beginning to buckle (as we knew it eventually would). The correlation between the data and the extrapolated trajectory is eroding as more data comes in. It does not help that the data itself is more volatile.
This started off as mostly a joke. It then turned into a running gag. Now look at it. The original peak prediction of 11,000 doesn't seem all that silly in hindsight.
Please don't read too much into this. This model was guaranteed to fail at some point. It may have already failed. Even if I am right to be bearish, the stock market could simply stagnate from here.
See Also:
Stimulus Physics
Stimulus Physics Update #1
Stimulus Physics Update #2
Stimulus Physics Update #3
Trend Line Disclaimer
Source Data:
Yahoo: Historical Prices for Dow Jones Industrial Average
"I'll chase him round the moons of Nibia and round the Antares maelstrom and round perdition's flames before I give him up!" ..."
ReplyDeleteNICE!
Mark, stop pretending this blog is a joke when it is one of the last bastions of common sense and reality there is!
GYSC,
ReplyDeleteWell, I could argue that one reason the model might be breaking down is because the stock market is breaking down (again).
I could also argue that any path down is unlikely to be as smooth as the path up and therefore the model was broken from the very start. I wouldn't be the first to argue this of course.
I could also mention that the best sarcastic rubicon might be the Dow 10,000 hats! Therefore, the stock market is in serious danger any time we are above that level.
Not going to do it though. I'll try to be more optimistic instead.
My optimism!
Oops. Wrong link!
Ben Bernanke's optimism!
Crap. I don't have this optimism thing down. Sorry.
Mark,
ReplyDeleteyour "prediction" is superb thus far! think about all the expert economists who were wrong..(these days I tend to think the experts simply try to mislead us).
nice work!
Remy
remy,
ReplyDeleteGenerally speaking, this sort of trajectory is not what the stock market does. I was basically claiming it might be different this time.
1. Short-term stimulus does nothing to fix long-term structural problems.
2. We can't borrow our way out of a debt problem. The more we borrow the bigger our problems.
3. Stimulus propped up the makets. That's a form of price control. Price controls don't work long-term.
Stimulus makes sense to me if a healthy economy hiccups. Our sick economy vomited though. It needs bed rest, not an IV pumping adrenaline machine.
At least I'm consistent. I was also bearish in 2004 when adrenaline was being pumped. I would argue that things are worse now than they were then too.
The government should NEVER have pushed home ownership at all costs. There is nothing wrong or bad about renting, especially if one needs that extra mobility in an iffy job market. You know, like this one!
Unfortunately, it is far easier to be a critic than to come up with solutions. I wouldn't want to be president. What would I do to alter the fact that billions will work for less than we will? My first speech would send us directly into a Great Depression no doubt. "Stock up on toilet paper" is not exactly motivational, lol. Sigh.
Just opinions of course.
"My first speech would send us directly into a Great Depression no doubt. "Stock up on toilet paper" is not exactly motivational, lol. Sigh."
ReplyDeleteYes, I'd bet that 'Stagflationary Mark's First Inaugural Address to the Union' would be a doozy.
"...dogs and cats living together..."
Well, this is interesting.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.aldenteblog.com/2010/06/soda-or-pop-what-are-you-drinking-this-summer.html
It appears that Mexican Coke is making a comeback. Were it not for the disaster that was New Coke, or the disappointment that is Coke Classic, this would not be happening. The best laid plans of mice and men, that sort of thing.
One would think that somebody at Coca-Cola would get a clue and go back to the original formula. (Well, maybe not the original formula, that one actually had cocaine in it from 1888 to 1938.)
Call it Real Coke or American Coke, and get back to market dominance. Or be outsold by Mexico.
watchtower,
ReplyDeleteFrom January 2010...
Remarks by the President in State of the Union Address
THE PRESIDENT: Madam Speaker, Vice President Biden, members of Congress, distinguished guests, and fellow Americans:
Our Constitution declares that from time to time, the President shall give to Congress information about the state of our union. For 220 years, our leaders have fulfilled this duty. They've done so during periods of prosperity and tranquility. And they've done so in the midst of war and depression; at moments of great strife and great struggle.
It's tempting to look back on these moments and assume that our progress was inevitable -– that America was always destined to succeed.
For what it is worth, I think I could have started my State of the Union Address exactly the same.
But the devastation remains. One in 10 Americans still cannot find work. Many businesses have shuttered. Home values have declined. Small towns and rural communities have been hit especially hard. And for those who'd already known poverty, life has become that much harder.
I could have said that too!
Unfortunately, my speech would have fallen apart.
Now, I know that some in my own party will argue that we can't address the deficit or freeze government spending when so many are still hurting. And I agree -- which is why this freeze won't take effect until next year -- (laughter) -- when the economy is stronger. That's how budgeting works.
I could not have said that. I don't think I could have assumed the economy would be stronger next year. I'm also not a believer that "that's how budgeting works".
GawainsGhost,
ReplyDeleteCall it Real Coke or American Coke, and get back to market dominance. Or be outsold by Mexico.
Rumor has it that Mexico will soon be building a wall at their border to stop Americans from entering their country illegally to acquire jobs and/or soda!