Click to enlarge.
This is fantastic news! We're back on exponential trend! Don't you see what this means? I've extrapolated it out 30 years for your entertainment pleasure. Just look how prosperous we'll be!
October 12, 2011
Anthony Mirhaydari: Forget fear; now's the time to buy
Overall, there is plenty to be optimistic about with pessimism is so high -- setting the stage for a powerful uptrend fueled by short covering and renewed interest in risky assets like stocks.
Oh yes! There's clearly a powerful uptrend. No doubt about it. Here's the best part. It is totally sustainable since it is being propped up by sustainable government spending. Government spending isn't even showing the slightest hint of an exponential trend failure yet. In fact, look where it will be in 100 years!
Real prosperity, baby. There is so much to be optimistic about!
BATTERIES NOT INCLUDED
See Also:
Sarcasm Disclaimer
Source Data:
St. Louis Fed: Current Government Expenditures
St. Louis Fed: Civilian Employment
St. Louis Fed: CPI
Hey, so that's two, count 'em two exponential trend non-failures: healthcare (heavily influenced by Medicare I suspect) and more directly govt. per civilian employed.
ReplyDeleteYeah, this is going to end really well. Got any others? More specifically, any that are not a proxy in one way or another for unsustainable govt deficit spending?
AllanF,
ReplyDeleteYeah, this is going to end really well. Got any others?
I'm kind of stumped, much like our political leaders.
October 12, 2011
No Jobs Bill, and No Ideas
That said, there are SO many reasons to be optimistic. I found this video which does a great job summarizing them, lol. Sigh.
http://www.usgovernmentspending.com/year2011_US.html
ReplyDeleteFirst time I divided $6.1T by 130 million my jaw dropped too.
$47,000 per worker. How is this even possible???
Alternatively, $5.3T (total spending modulo SSA) by $100,000 should be over FIFTY MILLION government jobs.
Where is da money going???
Troy,
ReplyDeleteWhere is da money going???
I'm picturing what an overworked emergency bilge pump does when trying to keep a sinking ship afloat.
Have no fear though!
CBO's 2011 Long-Term Budget Outlook
Rising debt would increasingly restrict policymakers' ability to use tax and spending policies to respond to unexpected challenges, such as economic downturns or financial crises. As a result, the effects of such developments on the economy and people's well-being could be worse.
What are the odds of unexpected challenges when we've already fixed everything? ;)
(I am so bearish.)
October 12, 2011
ReplyDeleteAnthony Mirhaydari: How to get even with Wall Street
Americans are downright angry -- at Wall Street and at politicians in Washington. But the best way to fight back is to get in the game and win.
That said, if you get back in the game and lose just think how @#$%ing @#$%ed you'll @#$%ing be then.
@#$% that! @#$%ing @#$% of a @#$%ingly @#$%ty idea if you ask me.
But what do I know? ;)
Where is da money going???
ReplyDeleteWell, obviously 3 shootin' wars are going to burn through a lot of materiel. Then there's pay-offs to political donors (cough, Solyndra, cough). And finally there's office supplies and pastries. Sh*t adds up, don'tchya know.
Where is da money going???
ReplyDeletehttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eyS5n0ByLag
Stag,
ReplyDeleteAlmost everyone is certain that Gov't spending is on an unsustainable path. I'm not so sure. Here's why:
We can't "afford" more Gov't spending unless Wall St. trashes the eCONomy. Perhaps I'm in the minority, but I have complete faith that Wall Street will keep figuring out ways to trash the eCONomy far into the future!
Hey, they don't call them the best and the brightest for nothing!
Is that a reason to be optimistic or what? The glass is only half broken. And it's still half full with CONtaminated water.
mab,
ReplyDeleteI guess I just prefer to see the dark side of things. The glass is always half empty. And cracked. And I just cut my lip on it. And chipped a tooth. - Janeane Garofalo
Hahaha!
During the debate Tuesday, Michele Bachmann said that the federal government is spending about “40 percent more” than what it takes in. I've heard the number is closer to 75%.
ReplyDeleteWhere is the data to confirm this answer?
Anonymous,
ReplyDeleteFederal Government Expenditures / Federal Government Receipts
As of 2011 Q2, I'd say the federal government is spending roughly 50% more than it is bringing in.
As seen in the chart, the long-term trend isn't looking so good either.
"leverer of last resort"
ReplyDeleteUnfortunaly, somebody beat me to this back in 2008. . .
Troy,
ReplyDeleteThe Last Resort
A Bachelorette weekend goes awry when the girls are robbed, stranded, and forced to take shelter in a deserted Mexican resort that is haunted by the unspeakable atrocities of past.
I have not seen the movie. It is not highly rated. That said, it would seem to apply here. ;)
Okay, so with that, back to the point of this post...
ReplyDeleteWhat if we "killed" some robots?
And put back to work some of the people that robots have replaced? We would see that RGE per CE start to drop again yes?
And would that have so great an impact on US corporations that they would no longer be able to make a viable profit?
Further, would it make the US uncompetitive in a world market place that depends as much on us as we do they?
Anonymous,
ReplyDeleteWhat if we "killed" some robots?
I have never advocated slowing the slowing of technology. In previous posts I have questioned where the jobs of the future would be coming from if robots replaced every worker though.
I do not see technology problem. I see income inequality as the problem, and technology is helping it grow.
And put back to work some of the people that robots have replaced? We would see that RGE per CE start to drop again yes?
I'm not sure. There would be so much pain involved that perhaps the economy would collapse under its own weight. I'm picturing what would happen to food prices if we farmed everything by hand again with this many people on the planet.
And would that have so great an impact on US corporations that they would no longer be able to make a viable profit?
Yes. Of course, Karl Marx predicted that would happen anyway. Capitalism would eventually extract every last ounce of profits out of the system. If not for ever expanding government spending to prop things up, I actually think he was right. Roubini seems to agree.
Further, would it make the US uncompetitive in a world market place that depends as much on us as we do they?
Yes. I never claimed to have solutions for what ails us. However, I'm not sure the rest of the world depends on us as much as you think. We have a massive unsustainable trade deficit. The opportunity to easily solve at least one of our major problems ended a long time ago. We should have never allowed a trade deficit in the first place. Sigh.
I have never advocated slowing the slowing of technology.
ReplyDeleteCopy and paste error as I was rearranging my thoughts. Too many "slowing" there. Oops.
"As of 2011 Q2, I'd say the federal government is spending roughly 50% more than it is bringing in."
ReplyDeleteI found this: Monthly Treasury Statement
If you look at page 2 it indicates:
YTD outlays: 3.296T
YTD receipts: 2.062T
That comes out to ~62%. Do you think this is right? It would mean that your estimate of ~50% has risen by 12% from July 1 until August 31.
Can that be right?
Hmmm, maybe I'm comparing apples to oranges...
ReplyDeleteThat document I referred to is "fiscal year", October to September. That could explain the difference.
"I have never advocated slowing the slowing of technology.
ReplyDelete...
I do not see technology problem."
You may be right, the technology age may not be a problem, but, in my view, when people begin to think that the technology age has a return of a higher standard of living we start down a wrong path.
As I see it all the tech age has done is created needs, not met them. That's a problem. Unless, of course, we all believe that infantile consumerism is sustainable. Clearly, it is not.
"I see income inequality as the problem, and technology is helping it grow."
I don't think business schools see it this way.
They will teach that when these big disparities exist and the flow of business goes to the cheaper labor, the standard of living and wages in that cheaper location begin going up, which shrinks the disparity. It's all cyclical. But left to flow as all forms of energy do, capital always winds up where it works best and does the most good...if left alone by the government to do so...
So, how's that worked out for us...in the cyclical political system...
Anonymous,
ReplyDeleteIt's tough to know what the discrepancy is but I can say this.
The year-to-date is inaccurate because there are probably seasonal variations.
The fiscal year data is just an estimate so that has error built in as well.
Anonymous,
ReplyDeleteThey will teach that when these big disparities exist and the flow of business goes to the cheaper labor, the standard of living and wages in that cheaper location begin going up, which shrinks the disparity.
Unfortunately...
1. The cheaper labor is not within our own country. It might help humanity overall but it doesn't necessarily help us.
2. The cheaper labor of the future might be robots. Robots will more than likely never shop at our country's many strip malls and restaurants.
Put another way, here's how I view outsourcing.
If you mix 1 billion very low paid workers with 150 million highly compensated workers then I doubt very much we'll end up with 1.15 billion highly compensated workers.
Will the 1 billion people be better off? Yes.
Will the 150 million people be better off? I doubt it.
Time will tell.
"Robots will more than likely never shop at our country's many strip malls and restaurants."
ReplyDeleteSo true. Nevertheless, those robots will be highly productive cranking out signs, banners, and flyers to guide poor, dumb saps like me to the many goods and services I can't afford.
Or simply don't need anyway.
And Larry Kudlow will lead his myrmidons in a cheer celebrating another miracle of capitalism.
Anonymous,
ReplyDeleteNevertheless, those robots will be highly productive cranking out signs, banners, and flyers to guide poor, dumb saps like me to the many goods and services I can't afford.
New Colossus
Not like the brazen giant of Greek fame,
With conquering limbs astride from land to land;
Here at our sea-washed, sunset gates shall stand
A mighty woman with a torch, whose flame
Is the imprisoned lightning, and her name
Mother of Exiles. From her beacon-hand
Glows world-wide welcome; her mild eyes command
The air-bridged harbor that twin cities frame.
"Keep, ancient lands, your storied pomp!" cries she
With silent lips. "Give me your tired, your poor,
Your huddled masses yearning to breathe free,
The wretched refuse of your teeming shore.
Send these, the homeless, tempest-tost to me,
I lift my lamp beside the golden door!"
We need the tired, the poor, and the huddled masses to keep this economic ponzi scheme going. ;)