Click to enlarge.
As you can see, the data is extremely noisy. That prompted me to use the Census seasonal adjustment program to get a better look.
Click to enlarge.
Another exponential trend failure? How unexpected!
As of March, could we be any further from the long-term trend line? Probably not!
Is the soaring price of electricity dampening demand? Not exactly!
Click to enlarge.
For all intents and purposes, electricity is cheaper now than it was through most of the "prosperous" 1990s.
So what might this mean? If recent residential electricity demand is any indicator, it might be best to brace for economic impact again. Frugality is in season.
July 15, 2012
Retailers hope back-to-school season will boost spending
A PriceGrabber survey in June had showed that nearly half of consumers expected to spend more this back-to-school season than in 2011 and that nearly 80 percent planned to buy online.
1. Nearly half? That's a reason for optimism? Seriously?
2. 80% plan to buy online? The malls better discount heavily!
Hope may not be warranted at this point.
For what it is worth, I've got a really bad feeling about this upcoming Christmas season.
July 13, 2012
Christmas shopping in July? Many say bargains are too good to pass up
"Every year we see holiday shoppers getting a jump-start earlier and earlier," said Jackie Warrick, president and chief savings officer at CouponCabin.com. "For many families, planning ahead for holiday shopping is the best option, as it gives them plenty of time to buy gifts and to find the lowest prices possible."
Source Data:
EIA: Electricity
St. Louis Fed: Population
St. Louis Fed: CPI
The X-12-ARIMA Seasonal Adjustment Program
said Jackie Warrick, president and chief savings officer at CouponCabin.com.
ReplyDeleteChief savings officer? I like it!
Btw, I think we should pull all the Gov't support here just to see how well "free" and unfettered markets work. Who doesn't like fireworks during the summer?
Interesting way of phrasing it, "nearly half plan to spend more," eh?
ReplyDeleteAs I see it that means more than half plan to spend the same or less.
Shifting to LED lighting in residential should send the per capital electricity usage down going forward.
ReplyDeletemab,
ReplyDeleteJun. 29, 2012
SB 1070 may fetter housing industry
Two to three jobs are created for every new house built, according to industry estimates. For more than 50 years, homebuilding has been one of Arizona's biggest economic drivers.
To fetter or not to fetter, that is the question. ;)
Bulskyn,
ReplyDeleteAs I see it that means more than half plan to spend the same or less.
Let's be optimistic here. Nearly half of the glass is full of water! ;)
Scott,
ReplyDeleteFor what it is worth, I switched to CFL for much of my lighting. I am looking forward to switching to LED lighting when it comes down a bit more in price.
That said, my electricity usage has still probably gone up over the past decade. What was saved in lighting was lost in a bigger screen TV and a bedroom air conditioner (that part actually does feel like real prosperity).
Here are two more ways we've been using more electricity.
ReplyDelete1. My unemployed girlfriend was using more electricity than normal due to being home all the time. That's changing in theory. She's got a part-time job now.
2. We lowered the thermostat for the whole house in the winter and to offset that my home office has its own electric heater. I don't need one but our bird does.