Click to enlarge.
Note that the slope of the red trend line is only half as steep as the blue trend line. We're hobbling along like a wounded animal. At the current rate, we will not make it back to 0.7 job openings per unemployed until the year 2021. No joke. Of course, that would end up making this economic expansion the longest in recorded history (by a wide margin). Good luck on that theory!
As seen in the chart, the timing of my blog's creation almost feels like cheating. If you are planning to start your own financial doomsday blog, then perhaps you could wait until we fall off the red trend line? Patience!
Then again, if one must panic then at least panic first. Since 2000, there's something to be said for that plan. Stick with what works. Sigh.
Update:
I added the point at which I turned permabearish to show that I really am a believer in the panicking first theory. It wasn't until 2007 that I went into "You've got to be kidding me. Seriously?" mode and opted to start a blog.
Source Data:
St. Louis Fed: Job Openings per Unemployed
I don't mean to imply that I was the first to panic. Technically speaking, I was about 4 years too late.
ReplyDeleteThose who panicked in 2000 and stayed panicky were the real winners, much to the dismay of Suze Orman. Her April 2000 advice didn't work out so well in hindsight.
Ok Mark. In that case, I'll consider starting my own blog in 3 years.
ReplyDeleteWho Struck John,
ReplyDeleteFantastic! This will give you plenty of time to think up a suitably apocalyptic name.
In the meantime, feel free to share stories of prosperity and unbridled optimism in the comments of this blog. I'm not picky. I'll settle for either real or imagined, lol. Sigh.