Thursday, October 25, 2012

Extreme Initial Claims Danger v.20


Click to enlarge.


Click to enlarge.

The red trend line continues to drift away.




Click to enlarge.

Speaking of Kahn, the previous week's initial claims were revised up yet again. That's 67 upward revisions in a row. I'm not arguing that this is all part of a grand conspiracy, but at some point you've got to think the DOL's estimation model could use a reality adjustment. Just sayin'.

Update:

At some point along the way I lost track of the count. It is actually 69 straight revisions. I am updating previous posts to reflect this.

The error crept about a month ago. I generally go to the previous week's data and add one. I must have looked at the wrong week. In any event, that's 4 "my personal blunders" labels. I must be an optimist. I think it could have been worse, lol. ;)

See Also:
Initial Claims Danger v.19

Source Data:
St. Louis Fed: Initial Claims
DOL: Initial Claims
at

8 comments:

  1. Mr SlipperyOctober 25, 2012 at 4:16 PM

    at some point you've got to think the DOL's estimation model could use a reality adjustment.

    It appears to me that the model is confirming to the requirements of the DoL. If it wasn't, they would have changed it by now. Whether that is a grand, petite, or no conspiracy is debatable.

    ReplyDelete
  2. Stagflationary MarkOctober 25, 2012 at 4:33 PM

    Mr Slippery,

    In my opinion...

    The model probably worked well until it didn't. I wonder what's changed about the new economy? Other than a plethora of exponential trend failures, my mind draws a blank, lol. Sigh.

    ReplyDelete
  3. Craig BrandenburgOctober 25, 2012 at 6:43 PM

    At some point along the way I lost track of the count. It is actually 69 straight revisions. I am updating previous posts to reflect this.

    "Revising up" just went meta!

    ReplyDelete
  4. TJandTheBearOctober 25, 2012 at 7:30 PM

    You were sick that week. ;-)

    ReplyDelete
  5. Stagflationary MarkOctober 25, 2012 at 8:39 PM

    Craig M. Brandenburg,

    The irony is not lost on me, lol.

    ReplyDelete
  6. Stagflationary MarkOctober 25, 2012 at 8:39 PM

    TJandTheBear,

    I'm certainly sick this week. I'm on my third bottle of NyQuil. Sigh.

    ReplyDelete
  7. ScottOctober 26, 2012 at 1:03 PM

    Speaking of revisions, does anyone know of a blog/site that tracks GDP revisions? For example, the trend in revisions between the advance estimate and the final number. It would be interesting to see if there were any pattern there.

    ReplyDelete
  8. Stagflationary MarkOctober 26, 2012 at 3:09 PM

    Scott,

    That would be interesting.

    ReplyDelete