Thursday, October 18, 2012

Extreme Initial Claims Danger v.19

Click to enlarge.

Click to enlarge.

We're back to extreme danger. The healthy red trend line continues to drift away.

Click to enlarge.

That's 66 straight weeks of upward revisions.


My count was off. It's 68 actually straight weeks.

See Also:
Initial Claims Danger v.18 (Musical Tribute)

Source Data:
St. Louis Fed: Initial Claims
DOL: Initial Claims


Mr Slippery said...

Do you think it might settle around the blue line, or is it more likely to start trending up again. Nature seems to prefer exponentials for as long as they can last.

TJandTheBear said...

The blue line is what we get with trillions in stimulus. Someone dares upset the apple cart (and expose the real economy) then Mark will have to draw a new, upward sloping line.

Stagflationary Mark said...

Mr Slippery & TJandTheBear,

I'm going to go with TJandTheBear's answer, only I'd use a "camel's back" and "last straw" analogy, lol. Sigh.

Stagflationary Mark said...

Mish: Graphical Look at Trends in Weekly Unemployment Claims

In 2012, there is has been no improvement since mid-February, and minimal improvement since the start of the year.

I first noticed it on June 14, 2012. This is my 19th report on it. I am no longer alone in seeing a problem here. Go figure.