Click to enlarge.
I started with nonfarm payrolls which already exclude the long-term decline in farm labor. I then subtracted the declining long-term trend in manufacturing employees. I then subtracted the awful construction employment numbers of late. And lastly, retail trade employment hasn't been performing well at all since the success of Amazon.com.
What's left? All that cherry picked employment trend goodness! That's what!
Oh, crap. It's still a massive exponential trend failure? 29.6 million jobs below trend? Seriously? Can't say I didn't try. Hey, at least there has been some growth since 2000. That's something I guess. Sigh.
And people wonder why I'm a permabear?
This post inspired by Rob Dawg's comments found here.
Source Data:
St. Louis Fed: Custom Chart
"This post inspired by Rob Dawg's comments."
ReplyDeleteSarcasm? You don't know sarcasm until you've been eyeball to eyball with a liberal across the hoocoodanode DMZ that is about -this- wide. The sarcasm? You can't handle the sarcasm!
Keep up the good fight Mark.
Rob Dawg,
ReplyDeletePity the fool who wanders into the DMZ unaware.
As a permabear, I've found myself there more than a few times. I'm trying to remember the last time. Oh, yeah. I remember. It had something to do with California employment numbers not looking fantastic to me.
What was I thinking? ;)
Wonder what a federal employment growth chart looks like? Doubt there's a trend failure... yet.
ReplyDeleteTJandTheBear,
ReplyDeleteSurprise!
All Employees: Government: Federal
It rolled over in 1990. It's definitely not keeping up with population growth.
Here's how it compares to nonfarm payroll jobs.
All Employees: Government: Federal / All Employees: Total nonfarm
Here's all government (including state and local).
All Employees: Government
Here's how that compares to nonfarm payroll jobs.
All Employees: Government / All Employees: Total nonfarm
As seen in the last chart, it would seem we're not quick to let the government workers go when the economy heads south. Go figure.
(And by heading south, I mean since 2000.)
ReplyDelete"awful construction employment numbers of late."
ReplyDeleteI read that somewhere else. Zero growth in construction jobs during this entire kick-ass housing recovery.
Fatboy,
ReplyDeleteAs seen here, you are right, sir.
Zero.
Nada.
Zilch.
TJ ecrit:
ReplyDeleteAll Employees: Government: Federal
It rolled over in 1990. It's definitely not keeping up with population growth.
Nope. That's when government started "outsourcing." All those contractors who empty the trash in the Pentagon are every bit as much government employees as they were before being "privatized." Sneaky accounting trick nothing more.
SM, it's time you produced a graph showing the number of your "exponential trend failure" graphs versus time.
ReplyDeleteRob Dawg,
ReplyDeleteAh, yes. The old contractor trick, eh? Good point.
Defense contractor
Defense contracting has expanded dramatically over the last decade, particularly in the United States, where in the last fiscal year the Department of Defense spent nearly $316 billion on contracts.
dearieme,
ReplyDeleteSM, it's time you produced a graph showing the number of your "exponential trend failure" graphs versus time.
I think I could stay on exponential trend for a few more years if I upgrade my computer, lol. Sigh.