This is your captain. While a soft landing is still theoretically possible, please brace for impact. Place your feet firmly on the floor, tuck your arms and elbows close to your sides, bend over your thighs as tightly as possible, and tuck your head as closely as possible to the surface you are most likely to strike when slammed forward. Thank you for choosing to fly with Federal Reserve Airlines. We hope you have enjoyed your flight, the upcoming landing notwithstanding.
When the #1 grain exporter invades #4 and takes both harvests off the market, there will be an issue. Sanctions are taking 40% of global potash fertilizer off the market. The Chinese shut down phosphate export last fall and raced around buying all the food they could (gee, do you suppose their "ally" tipped them off?). Ammonia fertilizer plants in Europe are offline because the feedstock, natural gas, is 12x US prices ($60 per thousand cubic feet versus $5). All of that might tend to lead to problems.
ReplyDeleteGeneral inflation is the fault of the Fed and the last round of stimulus. The coming FAMINE is generously brought to you by Putin et al. An early estimate is that global food calorie production will be down more than 10% this year. Poor countries that import food will be worst hit.
Well I am no geometry expert but it looks to me like the angle as of late is much bigger than the 2008 rate increase! Let's recap the trip so far:
ReplyDelete- inflation is transitory
- inflation is a good thing
- inflation is covid's fault
- inflation is Putin's fault
- why don't you love inflation, don't you want to fight for freedom in a far away nation that has nothing to do with us? You must be on Putin's payroll
That about covers it.
That 10 year bond say mortgage rates are gonna get......interesting.
At least the USD/Yen rate has been great, so I have seen deflation on tosogu items I buy from Japan, so it's not all bad!
J
I typed out a long form comment earlier, but not sure if it went through. If so great, if not, damn! It was funny!
ReplyDeleteGood stuff Mark!
J
Here’s some good news.
ReplyDeleteI don’t currently have any remorse over naming my blog nor myself. Illusionary prosperity and stagflation are back in style again! Woohoo!
Gallows humor. Sigh.
I soooo missed your wit and writing. Glad I came across it, and you, again. Hope all is well.
ReplyDeleteJ
Over the coming years, the fed will generate a larger body count in the US than Putin will in Ukraine.
ReplyDeleteIn support of your theory:
ReplyDeletehttps://amp.theguardian.com/us-news/2022/feb/07/homelessness-is-lethal-deaths-have-risen-dramatically
An examination of 20 US urban areas found the number of deaths among people living without housing shot up by 77% in the five years ending in 2020.
Very disturbing trend. Should the wheels fall off this unstable economy, the trend is likely to further accelerate. Sigh.
The median home price in the United States is $374,900 as of the second quarter of 2021. The median home price increased by 416% from 1980 to 2020.
ReplyDeleteDisturbing trend indeed.
Do we crash house prices, the stock market, or both? Time to distribute tents to the homeless.
Bruce for Impact.
ReplyDeleteSince we are now living in an Army of Darkness world, I am following the wise words of Bruce Campbell.
"Listen up you primitive apes! See this? *This* is my *boom stick*! The 12-gauge double-barreled Remington. S-Mart's top of the line. You can find this in the sporting goods department. That's right, this sweet baby was made in Grand Rapids, Michigan. Retails for about $109.95. It's got a walnut stock, cobalt blue steel, and a hair trigger. That's right. Shop smart. Shop S-Mart. *You got that*?"
Shop smart, shop S(tagflation)-Mart.
ReplyDelete