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Wikipedia: Optimism
Optimism is a mental attitude or world view that interprets situations and events as being best (optimized), meaning that in some way for factors that may not be fully comprehended, the present moment is in an optimum state. The concept is typically extended to include the attitude of hope for future conditions unfolding as optimal as well.
Hey! Look! A parabola! Woo-hoo!
See Also:
St. Louis Fed: Japan's Working Age Population
Sarcasm Disclaimer
Source Data:
St. Louis Fed: Custom Chart
When women aged 25 to 44 are working as much as women who aren't aged 25 to 44 then we can pretty much put a fork in all of baby creation.
ReplyDeleteI'm not suggesting we'll get there of course, but I am suggesting that we're making good progress!
Just wanted to mention that immigration can make up some for a slowing fertility rate. That is one big difference between the US and Japan.
ReplyDeleteStill watching and waiting for the Japanese pot to boil over.
Gen Y in da (Baby Making) House!
ReplyDeleteWell, they would be if they could afford housing . . .
"Still watching and waiting for the Japanese pot to boil over"
Back when the yen was at 80 and I was thinking it could go to 50 or 150, the though occurred to me that they'd much rather have it at 150.
And everything became a LOT clearer wrt their future prospect, and the leeway they had to print print print.
Japan's weirdness is simply massive tax cuts over the past 20 years now that they have employed to buy their own bonds instead.
I have no idea how they unwind this, other than getting another 0 tacked onto wages and prices.
The USD has inflated by 10X since 1950.
Japan hasn't inflated much over the past 20 years (stronger yen regime has helped a lot here I guess)
Mr Slippery,
ReplyDeleteImmigrant unemployment rate same as American-born workers
That's the good news.
Immigrants, however, are more likely to be employed in lower-paying fields, such as service jobs, construction and maintenance. So their pay is lower than workers who were born here.
That's the bad news. Sigh.
Troy,
ReplyDeleteI have no idea how they unwind this, other than getting another 0 tacked onto wages and prices.
In theory, as they attempt that the interest on their debt will skyrocket. I don't see how they can introduce that kind of inflation without someone getting very nervous about holding their bonds (including them).
I don't see how they can introduce that kind of inflation without someone getting very nervous about holding their bonds (including them).
ReplyDeleteSomething to ponder. I've read rumors that the BoJ may start cancelling some of the bonds they own, reducing Japan's debt load. It is a shell game they are playing, Japanese treasury issues a bond, BoJ buys it printing money from nothing, then cancels the debt.
The MMT crowd says this is fine and no harm comes from it, but it is a circular game, essentially forcing the general population to pay for the extravagant lifestyles of bankers. Maybe that's what society has evolved into, a clueless population supporting banker royalty instead of bloodline royalty. If it works, I am definitely in the wrong line of work, actually producing something instead of being a pampered parasite.
Mr Slippery,
ReplyDeleteIf it works, I am definitely in the wrong line of work, actually producing something instead of being a pampered parasite.
For kicks and giggles, I decided to see if there was some sort of educational class we could take that would allow us all to be pampered parasites.
CCP's Pampered Parasite Class
Yes! I opened the link to see how much the class would cost.
But even in their most addled moments of envy, ordinary Beijingers could take some comfort in the knowledge that the soupy air they breathe on especially polluted days also finds its way into the lungs of the privileged and pampered.
Such assumptions, it seems, are not entirely accurate.
As it turns out, the homes and offices of many top leaders are filtered by high-end devices, at least according to a Chinese company, the Broad Group, which has been promoting its air-purifying machines in advertisements that highlight their ubiquity in places where many officials work and live.
Crap. I thought it was an educational class. Turns out I was assuming the wrong definition, lol. Sigh.
Strongly disagree that female employment reduces the production of America's (or any nation's) greatest product. The research I saw indicates that financial security is a prerequisite to higher rates of (re-)production. Seems to me the recent trough in baby production coincided fairly well with the trough in your dataset? (When Momma's not happy, no one's happy…)
ReplyDeleteAlso, with regard to immigrant employment, I'm deeply disappointed that they didn't find data to break out legal vs. illegal immigrants. There are very skilled, very legal immigrants making huge contributions to the U.S. Be interesting to know if they're being suitably rewarded for that.
Sustainable Gains,
ReplyDeleteStrongly disagree that female employment reduces the production of America's (or any nation's) greatest product.
If every woman works full-time each and every month during each and every year, then no women can have babies. That's a fact. On average, the closer we are to that condition the fewer babies will be made.
The research I saw indicates that financial security is a prerequisite to higher rates of (re-)production.
I agree. 2007 was a great year for financial security. The stock market was at a high. People thought they were doing very well.
Then the Great Recession hit and women aged 25 to 44 felt the need to work more to compensate. That's just an opinion of course.
Put another way, children can be expensive.
ReplyDeleteIf both parents need to work full time to afford them, then there aren't many left to actually create the children in the first place (especially if both parents have student debt and bought a McMansion on the belief that prosperity would continue to flow to all the nooks and crannies of this country).
I would also point out that the economy has "sucked" since 2000. I think it took a long time for people to start changing their opinion on how prosperous this country will be over the long-term.
ReplyDeleteI think the chart shows that.