Click to enlarge.
In the chart above I have adjusted the New York price of natural gas delivered to residential customers for the modest inflation as seen in the consumer price index. So where is the much promised hyperinflation that so many have warned us about? The 12 month moving average (in blue) is sitting pretty much smack dab on the long-term median (in red).
There is nothing to see here.
August 29, 2011
Why Is There Deflation In Hyperinflation Forecasts?
On a slightly different note, I always find it interesting how those pushing the hyperinflation theme love to collect U.S. dollars. For instance, if you visit Shadow Stats, you can buy a subscription for a fee – in U.S. dollars. Now, a hyperinflationist would argue that it's using those dollars to buy hard commodities so that’s a valid point, but the problem is that there are no signs of hyperinflation in the Shadow Stats subscription service. In fact, in real terms, the subscriptions are deflating. If one goes back and reviews the cost of the service, it has remained remarkably stable in price:
Brilliant! I love his analysis and the thought process that went into it. Seriously. The article is well worth a read in its entirety.
And as a side note, consider this blog. I don't charge a single penny for people to read what I write (you may get what you pay for though, lol). I also make you this solemn promise. If I have any say in the matter, which I currently do, this blog will never have advertising on it. I don't want to see it. I assume you don't either. I'm therefore sticking it to my competition in a most deflationary way. In other words, I am working cheaper than a Chinese factory worker and intend to stay that way.
Welcome to the modern information age economy!
Source Data:
EIA: New York Natural Gas
St. Louis Fed: CPI
Fine Print Disclaimer: Technically speaking, if I see a product that interests me and I mention it on my blog than that is a form of advertising. That's clearly not what I'm talking about when I say this blog won't have advertising. And how might that happen?
ReplyDeleteDai Senryaku Exceed 7!
Rocksmith Review!
Hey, what can I say? I like video games. :)
Good grief.
ReplyDeletethan = then
Video game time. Might not post again until tomorrow. I will also probably be out and about all day doing the monthly Wal-Mart -> PetSmart -> Costco -> Winco -> Sam's Club shopping route.
ReplyDeleteThat's assuming I don't unwisely procrastinate it into the weekend. The Costco coupons expire on Sunday. Sigh.
Yes, it's true. I have been known to leave the house, lol. :)
"And as a side note, consider this blog. I don't charge a single penny for people to read what I write...."
ReplyDeleteSubscription prices do indeed seem to be deflating towards zero. There's not a zero bound in this case , however.
Soon , blogs , magazines , newspapers and such will pay us to read their stuff.
That's what I'm counting on , anyway. I figure that when I combine that income with SS and some modest investment income , I can retire in comfort.
I found CBO's long-range forecast spreadsheet.
ReplyDeleteThey are indeed predicting a $55,000 real increase in worker productivity (from $115k to $170k) by 2030 and $90,000 of real economic output per man. woman, and child in 2050.
I just gotta hang-on and I *will* see that Jetsons future! $90k is coming my way in 2050!
http://www.leftlanenews.com/study-shows-todays-young-adults-would-rather-have-the-internet-than-a-car.html
ReplyDeleteayup. wealth is that which satisfies human needs and wants, and diversion and communication is a big need/want -- the biggest really, since from the 100,000' foot level everything else in the economy has the implicit purpose of enabling our desire to screw around on the internet.
I was walking through the store earlier this week and a mom was telling her child that was sitting in the cart with a smartphone -- "no, you're not allowed to go on the internet now!"
Real welcome-to-the-future moment for little ol' 1990s me then.
Anonymous,
ReplyDeleteThere are 24,100 search results in Google for the phrase "get paid to read advertisements" (keep the quotes for an exact match).
No joke.
Troy,
ReplyDeleteI'm going to feel like such a fool for attempting to lock in my current standard of living with TIPS. I'm going to miss out on all that future real prosperity.
Or not. Time will tell. :)
"There are 24,100 search results in Google for the phrase "get paid to read advertisements"......"
ReplyDeleteThat's true. I've received a couple of spam e-mails promoting such "opportunities".
I'm holding out for the deflation that drives the quality journalism - like what I get here -into negative subscription rates. Basically , I want to be paid for reading the stuff I currently read gratis.
It's coming , I'm pretty sure.
If not , I'm gonna need a Plan B.
Anonymous,
ReplyDeletePlan B
You'd think that with so much money being spent on elections, we'll someday get paid to vote!
A charity just mailed my unemployed girlfriend a real nickel to entice her to read what they had to say. It sort of worked. She did read it.
Mark,
ReplyDeleteTell your girlfriend to look around for such offers from " Investment Rarities Inc".
They sent me a mint 2010 Silver Eagle just for signing on to their mailing list.
I'll read anything at an ounce of silver a pop!
Anonymous,
ReplyDeleteI'll read anything at an ounce of silver a pop!
People have killed for less and all you needed to do was read something? Genius! :)