Optimism is definitely hard to quantify. Here's one way.
Click to enlarge.
When I became permabearish in 2004, I started eating out a lot less. That remains the case and will be the case well into the distant future. I think it would be a fair assessment to say that I am not optimistic.
And yet, as seen in the chart, here we are.
On the one hand, we have 8.2% unemployment and have experienced one of the worst decades in American history.
On the other hand, we've had a good year or two thanks to massive unsustainable stimulus. If we extrapolate those years into the distant future then it can mean only one thing. We're invincible!
Source Data:
U.S. Census: Advance Monthly Retail Trade Report
Realtor.com Reports Active Inventory Up 31.7% YoY; New Listings Up 13.5% YoY
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*What this means:* On a weekly basis, Realtor.com reports the
year-over-year change in active inventory and new listings. On a monthly
basis, they report t...
5 hours ago
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