Thursday, May 7, 2020

Initial Claims

At this rate (-16.3% per week), it will take 7 more weeks before initial claims fall below a million. That’s 0.91 million on June 20th. And even then, initial claims will still be higher than the worst week of the Great Recession.

The good news or bad news is that this trend will fail at some point. But which way and how soon?

I’m not back to posting regularly. Everyone’s fine here (including our pets). And oddly enough, still have more than enough toilet paper. It’s one of the perks of long-term illusionary prosperity thinking, lol. Sigh.

Oh, and my retirement account is now sitting entirely in cash. Turns out that there wasn’t actually a TIPS bond bubble after all. Intended to hold to maturity but panicked investors and/or the Fed recently gave me a premium offer that I couldn’t refuse. Now patiently waiting for new opportunities to appear. No hurry. Like Warren Buffett apparently, I have never been this content in cash.

Source Data:
St. Louis Fed: Initial Claims


CP said...

Are you in "cash" cash, or in T-bills?

tekewin said...

Timely analysis. No illusions about 33 million unemployed heading to 40-50 million. Sounds like a lot of people when I type it out that way, like the population of California.

Stagflationary Mark said...

Sorry for the slow comment moderation. Only my phone gets the notification but I’m using my iPad.


Cash is in FDIC accounts, although my retirement account is slightly over the limit. Probably should move the excess to a short-term treasury fund. Pure stubbornness is stopping me from paying fees to earn nothing though.

Stagflationary Mark said...


40-50 million is only like 4-5 office desks though.

From WebMD:

More than 10 million bacteria are on a typical office desk -- 400 times more bacteria than found on the average toilet seat -- which means that typing an email or making a call puts you at risk for illnesses.

I am a terrible motivational speaker. Sorry about that.

Who Struck John said...

Good to see you! Now if we could only get MaxedOutMama to surface for a moment ...

Stagflationary Mark said...

Who Struck John,

Long time no see!

You can thank (or curse ;)) Credit Bubble Stocks for luring me partially back.

I thought about posting sooner, but the only exponential trend I had been actively following was the virus. Hard to get motivated about posting charts of death.

You are not the first person who has mentioned MaxedOutMama. Got an email from a regular there recently (who will remain anonymous since I value the privacy of others). I’m sure you’d remember the person.

It feels a bit like we’re getting the band back together to sing some more blues. Hahaha! Gallows humor. Literally. Sigh.