Raytheon Unveils Military-Grade Smart Bond Technology

April 1, 2014
Raytheon Unveils Military-Grade Smart Bond Technology

Traditional bonds are not well suited to low level precision attacks on hardened deflationary ground targets. It is for this reason that we are proud to announce a new bond for the 21st century. The Pathway QE-IV Laser Guided Bond is the most advanced precision-guided bond in the history of monetary policy.

A complex algorithm involving 10-year traditional treasury yields and short-term Fed Funds rates allows these bonds to fly well below the radar of passing hyperinflationists. Further, a large warhead of excess automobile inventory makes this bond a true blowout bunker buster.

The most advanced technology lies (repeatedly) in its nose-mounted laser. This laser, firmly affixed to the current Fed Chairman's nose, has an extremely large field of view. An oversized rear view mirror has been installed as well, for those times when additional "forward" guidance may be necessary.

In optimal conditions, this bond has a precision of +/- 0.1%. However, the laser guidance does have limitations. In periods of severe bad weather (Operation Polar Vortex) or when the laser is simply switched off to conserve energy, all guidance is lost. In these situations, the bond reverts to its predetermined optimal glide path as seen in blue in the following chart.

Click to enlarge.

In all seriousness, why does every day feel like April Fool's Day? ;)

Source Data:
St. Louis Fed: Custom Chart

Parabolic Trend Failure of the Day (Musical Tribute)

The following chart shows the 12 month moving average of merchant wholesalers' drugs and druggists' sundries sales divided by disposable personal income.


Click to enlarge.



Source Data:
St. Louis Fed: Custom Chart

The Sarcasm Report v.188

March 19, 2014
U.S. News & World Report : The case for living on half your income

The payoff is pretty awesome if you can swing this major financial task. Asking a family to save half their income today is like asking most people to cut off their left hand. Thoughts abound around how this will happen and what sacrifices must be made. But the payoff in the end saves you money and keeps you afloat should a worst-case scenario materialize.

If this is awesome for some of us, then it certainly must be awesome for all of us!

The Roman Empire's Worst-Case Scenario Program

1. N = "I" (in Roman Numerals).
2. Save half of our current incomes.
3. Retail sales plummet.
4. Incomes plummet.
5. N = N + 1 (II, III, IV...).
6. Hello Great Depression N.
7. If greatly depressed, then go to Step 2.
8. Awesome payoff!

As you can clearly see, we can't actually make it to Step 8 without some help.

6a. Hello Great Depression N.
6b. Add "mother's little helper" to the public water supplies!
6c. More dogs and ponies (debt based euphoria)!
6d. More smoke and mirrors (uplifting political speeches)!

Ugly Chart of the Day: Automobile Repair and Maintenance (Musical Tribute)

The following chart shows the 12 month moving average of automotive repair and maintenance production and nonsupervisory employee minutes worked per thousand vehicle miles traveled.


Click to enlarge.

The exponential growth (red trend line) that we've seen in this recovery's automobile repair and maintenance employment failed one year ago. It would seem that the era of pent-up demand for automobile repair and maintenance has come to an end.

This is just one more indication that the party is winding down again, not that many seem to notice or care. Unless we can figure out a way to throw ourselves another epic Y2K party, I would find it very hard to believe that this economy can unexpectedly accelerate to the upside from here. We don't even have the strength needed to make it back to the trough of the dotcom bust apparently.

And on that note, heaven help us if we do indeed accelerate. As seen in the chart, up isn't the only direction possible. In fact, down happens at least as often.

I looked on outta the window and I started countin' phone poles, goin' by at the rate of four to the seventh power. Well I put two and two together, and added twelve and carried five; come up with twenty-two thousand telephone poles an hour.

I looked at Earl and his eyes was wide, his lip was curled, and his leg was fried. And his hand was froze to the wheel like a tongue to a sled in the middle of a blizzard. I says, "Earl, I'm not the type to complain; but the time has come for me to explain that if you don't apply some brakes real soon, they're gonna have to pick us up with a stick and a spoon."

Well, Earl rared back, and cocked his leg, stepped down as hard as he could on the brake, and the pedal went clean to the floor, and it stayed right there on the floor. He said it was sorta like steppin' on a plum.

Source Data:
BLS: Employment
St. Louis Fed: Vehicle Miles Traveled

Robbing Retiree Peter to Almost Pay Retiree Paul (Musical Tribute)

The following chart shows real interest income plus real Social Security benefit income (per Capita, February 2014 dollars). As expected, real Social Security income is rising as more and more people begin retire. Unfortunately, the same cannot be said of interest income.


Click to enlarge.

Hang in there Retiree Peter! I have it on "good" authority (CNBC), that it's only a matter of time before interest rates rise up from the ashes and enhance that retirement income! And if that doesn't work, you can always try swinging for the fences on high-priced risk assets. What could possibly go wrong again?

Retiree Peter's Song

Sitting in this carpool

They're talking like damn fools

Got CNBC news blues!

And they're serving up hope

As I'm trying to cope

With savings that are too few!

Is it any wonder I'm so queazy?

Is it any wonder this recovery?

Well I'm so tired of zero

We get nothing but ZIRP

My bank's jammed with CDs!

I'd go out cruisin'

But I've no fuel to go

It is nothing but QE!

Is it any wonder I think it's criminal?

Is it any wonder this saver's in hell?

Source Data:
St. Louis Fed: Custom Chart

The Scariest Employment Chart Ever

The following chart shows the total food stamp participants divided by the total manufacturing employees, construction employees, agriculture employees, and information services employees.


Click to enlarge.

Boo!

See Also:
Headline for Next Friday: "U.S. Private Employment at All Time High"

Source Data:
St. Louis Fed: Custom Chart
USDA: SNAP Annual Summary

Velocity of MZM Money Stock (Musical Tribute)

The velocity of money is the frequency at which one unit of currency is used to purchase domestically- produced goods and services within a given time period. In other words, it is the number of times one dollar is spent to buy goods and services per unit of time. If the velocity of money is increasing, then more transactions are occurring between individuals in an economy.

Click to enlarge.

Damn! We're really moving! Just look at that recovery!



See Also:
Sarcasm Disclaimer

Source Data:
St. Louis Fed: Custom Chart

The Job Apocalypse Is Hiding in Plain Sight

March 27, 2014
CEPR: The Job Apocalypse That Is Hiding From The Bureau of Labor Statistics

There is a growing industry in the United States of people promoting stories about how robots and other technological innovations are going to make us all unemployed.

...

The issue is simply one of how fast we might expect these new technologies to increase productivity and displace workers. The answer we have been getting to date from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) is not very fast.

The following chart shows real output per person in the business sector.


Click to enlarge.

It would seem that the exponential trend failure in this chart has created a Center for Economic and Policy Research sarcasm failure. That's two failures in one!

The Sarcasm Knife


Sarcasm is a dangerous weapon, especially when holding it by the blade instead of the handle.

Source Data:
St. Louis Fed: Business Sector: Real Output Per Hour of All Persons