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May 7, 2009
Global mkts in for a rude shock: Andy Xie
I think that the market has rallied a lot. I think it is a bear market rally. Some would argue it is a bull market. I don't think most businesses would agree with that because business conditions have not improved that much. The economy has stabilized both inside China and elsewhere, mainly due to inventory cycle and as well as the liquidity support for corporate balance sheet. It is not a contracting like before, but we are not seeing strong upward growth momentum.
Let's use the wayback machine to see just how kind hindsight has been.
2005: He warned of the housing bubble.
2006: Morgan Stanley let him go for speaking his mind in an internal e-mail.
2007: He warned that China and the global economy would crash.
2008: He warned that America would need to wake up to reality.
2009: He warns that global markets are in for a rude shock.
October 9, 2008
The Thoughts of Andy Xie
The US economy is facing its biggest crisis since the Great Depression, one that will require considerable sacrifice to solve. But politicians are talking the other way and promising more goodies.
Like him, I'm not a believer in "something for nothing" solutions.
Real Estate Newsletter Articles this Week: Existing-Home Sales Increased to
4.15 million SAAR in November
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At the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter this week:
[image: Existing Home Sales]*Click on graph for larger image.*
• NAR: Existing-Home Sales Increase...
16 hours ago
3 comments:
Excellent coverage Mark, fast becoming a must read for me!
Stag,
I'm not a believer in "something for nothing" solutions.
Don't be a downer cow.
Look on the bright side, the last boom gave us $1 of new GDP for every $6 of new debt. CONservatively, we should be able to get $1 of new GDP for every $12 of new debt during this re-flation. That's almost nothing for a lot of something (debt).
And that is really good news as debt is money. We're now able to create lots of money with little output.
Sweeeeet!
And remember, we have to save wall street bonuses in order to save main street.
mab,
"And remember, we have to save wall street bonuses in order to save main street."
In order to pay out a dollar in bonuses, we actually have to cough up a dollar. Why can't we just cough up a few pennies and leverage it up instead?
"We know you were expecting a ten thousand dollar bonus this year. However, we thought we'd surprise you with a 100-1 leveraged $100 bonus instead. Your horse is named Gimpy Joe and he's running in the 10th race. Good luck!"
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