The following chart shows the natural log of the producer price index for all commodities. When using natural logs, constant exponential growth is seen as a straight line.
We've been screaming towards the top of the channel like a runaway train. Our engineer (the Fed) is now desperately attempting to apply the brakes. The odds of a soft train landing seem incredibly low. Beware the rapidly approaching Deadman's Economy Curve. We're likely to derail!
Some might argue that we've already derailed. The worst is now behind us. I'm not convinced. Since when has maximum pain been achieved with near record low unemployment? It seems to me that we still have plenty of pent-up depressionary pain potential. Surely the unemployment rate has not achieved a permanently low plateau, especially given all the financial pain both the stock and bond markets have recently dished out. In fact, it's entirely possible that the pain party might just be getting started. Perhaps the Great Recession will be followed up with an even greater one. *cringe*
This is definitely not financial advice. I am and have been very concerned about our long-term future, much like many must have been during the fall of the Roman Empire. Who is responsible? We all are.
No single raindrop believes it is to blame for the flood.
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