Retail Trade Employment per Capita

The good news, if you can call it that, is that we've managed to climb back to the declining trend line in red. Here's the reaction from our cat Dexter:

It's the same look he has when hunting buggies, birbs, bees, and bagholders. Okay, maybe not bagholders. He's just a cat, not a Wall Street professional trader. In a world of predators, it's easy to forget that.

In all seriousness, it would be an understatement to say that I am not optimistic about where retail trade employment heads from here. The short-term recovery tailwinds are gone. The long-term automation headwinds remain. May we live in dangerously interesting times. Sigh.

Apocalypse Fatigue

It's been a rough month.

Our 25-year-old bird is sick. We took her to the emergency vet. She stayed overnight. We think she ate part of her cage. Ingested some metals. She's prone to seizures and these were the most violent we'd ever seen. Feathers and blood everywhere. Not good.

Took her to her regular vet for a followup. She was terrified and escaped their control long enough for even more feathers and blood. Ouch.

We've set up a hospital cage for her made out of a large plastic storage container drilled with holes and filled with towels. It's treating her well so far.

Meanwhile, we ordered a new large steel cage for her. We were fortunate to find one on sale, because they are not cheap. There are SO many out of stock right now. It was originally supposed to be delivered two days ago but there was a delay due to a train derailment. I kid you not. It arrived today and we put it together. Fortunately, that went well. She's not ready for her new and improved home, but it will be ready when she is.

In other news, it's not been a great month for the stock market. I'm still up 10% since I bought back in December, even with today's tobacco stock selloff. The decision to diversify out of utilities is still holding up well. Utilities are not reacting well at all to the rise in the 10-year yield. Had I stayed entirely in utilities, the gains would be cut in half. On a brighter note, still doing better than the 30-year Treasury bond. By. A. Wide. Margin. A 0.37% increase in yield x 30 years is roughly an 11% loss.

No more VPU specific reports. It's only 20% of my IRA now (and my IRA is a relatively small part of my net worth), so my motivation to track it closely just isn't there any longer.

Cabin fever is becoming apocalypse fatigue. Since 2020, it’s starting to feel like we're in the "what can go wrong, will go wrong" era. My hoarding tendencies are on high alert, with each new "out of stock", "shortage", "supply chain disruption", and "Covid" story adding to the personal drama. The drama is real. Any resemblances to the many fine disaster movies I often enjoy are hopefully entirely coincidental, military soldiers driving gasoline tanker trucks in Great Britain notwithstanding. *cringe*

And lastly, my posting frequency will most likely be somewhat reduced in the coming weeks. Looking to take a break. I will definitely continue to post trading updates, not that I have many trading plans. I’m comfortable with what I own. The next purchase will probably be more savings bonds at the start of the new year.

The Sarcasm Report v.287

For those who have $500,000 to invest, I want to tell you about an exciting opportunity that has suddenly appeared in the Treasury markets. And unlike Fisher Investments, this opportunity is provided absolutely free to loyal readers of this blog! There are no fees structured for me to do better as you do better! You will keep 100% of the profits!

As seen in the following chart, this exceedingly rare opportunity can be found in the 1-year Treasury note.

No, it's not the 17% in 1981. I can understand the confusion. Please allow me to zoom in closer.

No, it's not the 6% in 2000 nor the 5% in 2007. This is a current opportunity. Let me zoom in closer.

No, it's not the 2.5% from 2018. Don't we wish. One last zoom should clear this up.

Behold the miracle! After hitting a lifetime low of 0.04% in early June, the yield has risen to 0.07% today! That's an unprecedented 75% increase in less than two months!

If you have $500,000 to invest, gone are the days when you could safely earn $200 per year. Now it's $350! That's almost one dollar each and every day! Do not let this once in a lifetime opportunity pass you by!

As a side note, our pets haven't been this excited about one of my sales pitches since they attended one of my investment timeshare seminars. They endured four hours of presentations for the free dog treats, but it was so worth it. Just look at those smiling faces!

Tech vs. Utilities (Musical Tribute)

The following chart shows the QQQ to XLU ratio since 1999.

Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com.

The ratio peaked in 2000. 21 years later, we've almost come full circle. What good fortunes will the next 21 years bring? Fully autonomous self-driving cars? Better late than never. Am I right?



This is not investment advice. As a utility investor, I am indifferent when it comes to how utilities perform relative to tech stocks from here. That said, it would not surprise me in the least if utilities outperform Tesla. Keep in mind that I want Tesla to succeed, just as I would have wanted Ford to succeed in the early days if I would have been a gasoline investor.

As a side note, my first mower was gas-powered. My next mower was battery-powered. I really liked how quiet it was, but I did not like that, as it got older, it took more than one charge to mow my lawn (nor did I like that the battery was not easy to swap out). My current mower is gas-powered. Spent more than an hour today cleaning its carburetor. My next mower may be battery-powered, again. As much as the thought of a fully-autonomous self-driving lawn mower appeals to me, I don’t think I’m emotionally prepared to risk having it mow over things that randomly might appear in my lawn completely unsupervised though. You know, like the neighborhood kids and pets.

I’m not even emotionally prepared to risk owning a fully-autonomous self-driving vacuum. We have two dogs and a cat. All it took was one poopocalypse story involving a Roomba to cure me of that desire.

Guard Cat on Duty

Don’t be deceived by the placement of the vent. I assure you that Dexter is guarding the front door. The warm air flow is just a coincidence. 🤪

Guard Dog Training

River barks nonstop when trucks deliver packages to our home (or a neighbor's home), but patiently watches when trucks remove packages from our home (or a neighbor's home).

I don't mean to brag, but I think we've done an exceptional job with her training. Perhaps I should write a book? Hahaha! :)

We’ve Got a Package!

River takes package deliveries very seriously. Due to the pandemic, she's had a lot of practice.

I don't normally tease her like this. Also know that she always gets a treat each time there is a delivery. :)

The Road to NIRP Is Paved with ZIRP Intentions

The following table shows the annualized inflation rate in the 2 years before each recent recession, the inflation rate in the 2 years after each recent recession, and the differences between them.

I am not a believer in the economy will soon overheat theory. A $1.9 trillion stimulus package might sound like a shockingly large sum of money, but let's put this in perspective. Household net worth now stands at $123 trillion and has grown $63 trillion since the Great Recession in 2009. By comparison, $1.9 trillion is like loose change found in the couch.

Our exponentially growing monetary addiction requires ever increasing sums just so the wheels don't fall off. Has anyone actually considered that $1.9 trillion might not be enough?

Ten Rhetorical Stimulus Questions

1. Are we supposed to be shock and awed by a $1.9 trillion stimulus package that's only equivalent to 1.5% of household net worth?
2. What if savers continue to save?
3. Are we counting on savers to spend?
4. Are we counting on spenders to spend what they've already spent?
5. How does one hoard services?
6. If there really is pent-up demand for haircuts, will people be getting twice as many over the next 2 years?
7. How much of a $1400 stimulus check would we need to save to earn $4.20 in annual interest in an online savings account that only has a 0.3% interest rate?
8. Should we use the $1400 instead to buy 100+ fast food meals, 2 shares of Tesla @ $674, or 5 shares of GameStop @ $247?
9. Easy come, easy go. Am I right?
10. Human sacrifice? Dogs and cats living together? Mass hysteria?

Humans needlessly sacrificed, dogs and cats living together, mass hysteria. It's been quite a year.

Pent-Up Demand

This would probably be a bad time to remind everyone that my significant other cuts my hair now, does a more than adequate job of it, and will continue doing so in the future.

This would also be a bad time to point out that she is currently learning how to groom our Shih Tzu. We recently bought high-end dog clippers and a folding grooming table from Amazon.

This would defintely be a bad time to point out that it once cost 4 times more to groom our Shih Tzu than to groom me.

Gamestomped

I’d comment on GameStop (GME) again today, but another picture’s worth another thousand words.

And no, it isn't the same picture as the last one, or a mirrored version of it. Wasn't even taken the same month. I kid you not. If you are experiencing serious déjà vu, blame the GameStop traders.

Gameflop

 

I’d comment on GameStop (GME) today, but a picture’s worth a thousand words.

Doom, Gloom, and Dogs

January 13, 2021
The Guardian: Top scientists warn of 'ghastly future of mass extinction' and climate disruption

Dealing with the enormity of the problem requires far-reaching changes to global capitalism, education and equality, the paper says. These include abolishing the idea of perpetual economic growth...

Reading all of this doom and gloom during a pandemic is a bit much, even for an Illusion of Prosperity blogger. I therefore attempt an escape from reality to the relative safety of my German Shepherd puppy memories.

Wow! That actually worked? I feel so much better now. In fact, I'm barely even thinking about how our very own loser of a president recently incited violence, death, and looting at our very own U.S. Capitol.

Dog therapy for the win! Let the healing begin!!

Standing Back and Standing Down

We'll be standing back and standing down for at least 4 years! Woohoo!

P.S. Best election year ever. 🙂

Covid Kitty

The Covid Kitty takes after Punxsutawney Phil. If he comes out and sees his shadow then there will be 6 more weeks of pandemic. And then, unfortunately, he repeats the process.

The Faces of Cabin Fever

River is at her wits’ end, desperately clinging to any sense of normalcy.



Meanwhile, Dexter has chosen to escape reality into the world of video games. Cats. Go figure.

Our pets take after their human parents.

I’m not suggesting that all we’re doing is clinging to pillows and playing video games during a pandemic. Far from it. We’ve also been walking, eating, and watching TV. In fact, we’re currently watching the local protesting and looting news going on right now in downtown Seattle. I think that’s much more than just cabin fever gone wild though.

Some have claimed there is a lot of pent-up demand due to the pandemic. Seems to be a lot of pent-up demand for justice, tear gas, burning police cruisers, and/or freshly looted Nordstrom purses and perfume.

At what point do we tire of all this winning? Sigh.

What’s a Trillion Dollars Worth?

May 8, 2020
Barron’s: Oops! Invesco Forgot to Rebalance an Index Fund. It’s Repaying Investors $105 Million.

Fund giant Invesco (ticker: IVZ), which manages more than $1 trillion in assets, reported this week that it had failed to rebalance an S&P 500 equal-weight mutual fund in April, a mistake that initially cost investors $105 million. An ETF version of the fund, Invesco S&P 500 Equal Weight (RSP), wasn’t impacted, highlighting how mutual fund and ETF performance can sometimes diverge.

Totally understandable. The last time I was managing a trillion dollars in assets, some of it was eaten by my dog, some was shredded by my cat, and some disappeared for weeks at a time in the crevices in our couch. No big deal. I made sure that those trusting me got most of their money back, once they spotted some of my errors. As I type this, I see a big bag of cash next to the fireplace. That’s just an accident waiting to happen. I should move that to somewhere safer someday.

Our New Dog Just Signed Up on Twitter

Her name is River. She will be 8 weeks old tomorrow, and we'll be bringing her home. You can follow her story on Twitter @RiverGSD. It's just getting started. No politics. No religion. No economics. Just tons of pictures and a lifetime of realtime memories (hopefully)!

Real prosperity, baby. That's what I'm talking about. :)

A Pretty Scary Picture!

November 2, 2016
USA Today: Here's how much the average American spends on child care

In fact, the cost of child care is so astounding that over 20% of those surveyed say it drove them to hold off on having kids. Meanwhile, 25% of parents have gone into debt in order to pay for child care. But while these numbers might paint a pretty scary picture, there are things you can do to ease the financial burden.

I had to stop reading. Started to feel like another cat story. We already know how the last one ended!

The Sarcasm Report v.264

November 2, 2016
My Cat Is Sick, Expensive, and Keeping Me in Debt. Is It Time to … You Know?

Here’s the major issue: I have an elderly cat whom I love very, very much. She’s quite happy, but her medical care for a number of chronic illnesses runs about $600 to $700 a month for specialized food, prescription medicines, quarterly vet visits, and other needs. This is quite a burden. And if it wasn’t for this expense, which has been going on for four years now, I could—at least mathematically—not only be out of debt but have a cool $10,000 in savings.

You and your husband earn a combined $160,000 per year (a mere three times the median household income). Your gross income is only $13,333 per month. At $650 per month, your cat's current expenses add up to 5% of your combined gross income. Oh, yes. It is definitely your beloved cat that is keeping you in debt. Shame on her!

You have my permission to kill your happy cat that you love very, very much. Once that burden is removed, think how much happier you all will be. And remember, you are never obliged to pay for those you love, no matter how much they might depend on you or how much you might love them. It's all purely discretionary. Further, she is not actually your child. You did not give birth to her! You aren't even the stepmother. You should have opted for the "cool $10,000 in savings" years ago! Think how many younger and cuter kittens you could have had with that!

But pets are not children. We may refer to ourselves as pet mommies, but we aren’t obliged to pay for their medical care. While being an animal-lover feels necessary to you and me, it is all but the definition of discretionary spending.

See? I am not alone in my thinking. We animal-lovers need to stick together.

In all seriousness, our pets are our kids. We do feel obliged to pay for their medical care. If you cannot afford to pay 5% of your annual gross income to keep beloved happy pets alive in their elderly years, then perhaps you should not have pets in the first place.

Live and let live.

Seriously, if you really love your cat and your cat is indeed happy, then let her live.

The Dog Who Knew Real Prosperity

Filmed in 2014. Rest in peace, Honey.