I live in the USA and I am concerned about the future. I created this blog to share my thoughts on the economy and anything else that might catch my attention.
Dr. Strange Move or How I Learned to Love the Bill
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After a couple of years of disinflation, the Fed changed directions and
started lowering rates. By most measures, the economy had been humming
along near a...
NVIDIA Revisited
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On August 26, 2023, 5 days before it a new closing hi at 493.55, I wrote a
critical post about NVDA - the stock, not the company. After that, the
stoc...
Stay away from popular tech stocks, part II
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Last August, I wrote a blog post arguing that largest technology and
internet companies -- Amazon, Apple, Facebook, Google, Microsoft -- would
never grow i...
So, Where Have I Been?
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Well, of course, I have been where I am!
It's been a good few years away from this blog. I do miss some folks
terrible, and I sort of miss things financial...
Those Whom The Gods Wish To Destroy ...
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they first make mad. Still true!!!
*(Note: this post, and probably several others to follow, are actually
about the US dollar and relative currency trends....
At 5:00am I thought I'd practice Rocksmith's Scale Runner and call it a night. 5 hours and 15 minutes later I hobbled off to the couch and collapsed, lol.
I averaged 271.9 notes per scale on 11 scales (3 scales were 273 notes). Averaging 272.2 notes per scale would get the top score. A speed improvement of just 0.1% will get me there.
My new personal best is 273 notes in a row in 100 seconds. I've done it twice in the last week. That speed was good enough to help inch my way up into 4th place. And when I say inch, I really mean it. As seen in the picture above, I'm just 1,200 points ahead of the person in 5th place (out of 161+ million). Whew!
I need to play roughly 0.5% faster overall (on 11 different scales) in order to get to #1. That definitely seems doable given enough practice and patience.
I've latched myself onto this mini-game like a honey badger would. Giving up is not an option! :)
I heard this quote on CNBC today and there was more head nodding than I could stomach. Apparently the financial "experts" have not yet heard that the 1980s and 1990s are actually over.
The following chart shows the S&P 500 index adjusted for inflation (March 2013 dollars).
Click to enlarge.
The next chart shows real wage and salary disbursements per capita (March 2013 dollars).
Click to enlarge.
Red exponential style trend lines in both charts were generated using an artistic license. Good enough for government work! In any event, both trends have failed spectacularly. I would argue that neither are in any condition to resume their former trends over the long-term. Put another way, I have absolutely no desire to invest in the stock market after it has cyclically doubled. Call me crazy if you must.
As a side note, real wages per capita tend to rise during economic recoveries as more people get put back to work. As seen in the chart above, I guess this recovery is special though. And when I say special, I actually mean FUBAR. If real wages per capita cannot rise during this expansion then what will they do during the next contraction? Don't answer. It's rhetorical. Sigh.
The 1980s and 1990s really are over. This is not a popular theory on CNBC. Perhaps it is because CNBC was launched on April 17, 1989. They may not know financial value but perhaps they do know sentimental value. I'm certainly teared up just thinking about the one hit wonders of the 1980s.
Here in my car
I feel safest of all
I can lock all my doors
It's the only way to live in cars
In the year since Seattle launched the Safe Parking pilot project for homeless people living in their cars, just two churches have opened their parking lots, providing a total of seven spaces. But the city is expanding the project and hopes to provide more services.
And lastly, The Market Ticker has an interesting take on what the S&P 500's dividend yield will get you over the long-term.
The S&P 500's dividend yield is down to 2.03%. May I also remind everyone that the only actual long-term value in common equity is in fact the dividend cash flow off that equity since all companies eventually cease to exist. Think I'm wrong? Where's RCA, a powerhouse that would never die? Uh huh. There are thousands more just like them.
That was certainly true where I once worked. Sierra Entertainment was founded in 1979. It was "aborted and shut down" in 2009. It only survived 30 years. I'm not sure why the word "aborted" was needed when "shut down" would seem to suffice. But then again, I left as a rat would leave a sinking ship in 1999. I can certainly empathize with the sentiment. Sigh.
I've concluded that the momentum behind the price movements of gold, silver, and SSRI is simply too strong to offer me another buying opportunity. At least I've got enough sense to continue to hold onto the shares that I now own. This current gold/silver bull market should provide each of us with a very profitable experience. It's a shame that more of my friends aren't participating in this once in a lifetime wealth accumulation opportunity. - seasonedspeculating
I went 13 straight days at 211. I made an attempt to hold the line once 210 was breached. Some might argue that the seasonal peak is in. Others might argue that my girlfriend made a batch of brownies a few days ago though and they are all gone now. You'll see that damage in May's chart. Oops. :)
Click to enlarge.
I'm not at all worried about the long-term trend. That's all that really matters to me. I'm confident it is still down, especially if this is factored in. Further, hiking season is officially here. I intend to do some this weekend. The weather is predicted to be fantastic.
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