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Gone are the days when central banks were truly independent. Can you imagine if the Fed raised short rates this month? U.S. lawmakers would probably send a SWAT team to bring in Bernanke. Imagine if Trichet tightened policy at a time when Greece is being downgraded to junk and Spain is on the brink. The United Nations might have to get involved to save the euro zone from itself.
Get Used to Zero
Nor does anyone expect the Bank of Japan to surprise markets. Central bankers are stuck near zero for some time. That’s the problem with using all your ammunition. It’s hard to reload when credit markets are still malfunctioning and demand for credit is scarce.
The 20-Year isn't buckling yet, but it sure is trying.
This is America though. We're not just some third world country. We should keep that in mind. It would take an epic financial disaster to make this economy bad for 20 more years (in addition to the last 10 years of course).
The bond market doesn't think we're about to hyperinflate. That's pretty good news for those of us who are savers (not so good for those in debt). Of course, that might end up being too much of a good thing if we slide back down into the deflationary abyss.
I continue to believe that we cannot borrow our way back to prosperity. It did not work for Japan. It did not work for us in 2004. It won't work for us now. We cannot fix long-term structural problems with short-term cyclical solutions.
See Also:
Trend Line Disclaimer
Source Data:
FRB: Selected Interest Rates
U.S. Treasury: Daily Treasury Yield Curve
12 comments:
I share your pessimism, Mark. Back in the day, you know who it was that saved America and the world? It was high school country boys who grew up shooting squirrels for dinner. You're damn right they could handle an M-16 and kill a German.
I don't mean to defame the US Military, but how many guys do they have like that?
We are in the midst of the fourth turning, the winter months. And it's a long way to Spring.
Stag,
I continue to believe that we cannot borrow our way back to prosperity.
That sounds reasonable, but maybe we should ask Lenny Dyksta. He's one of the truly "great" ones, lol!
GawainsGhost,
I once shot a field mouse (2" long maybe) with a semi-automatic .22 rifle from the hip at a range of about 20'. He was running at top speed but he chose a straight line. It was the last shot out of 7 in the clip. Each shot was closer than the previous one and acted mostly like tracer shells, since they'd leave a mark in the dirt. The last one got him out of sight under a shrub.
I can't even begin to imagine what must have gone through soldiers' minds being ordered to rush a machine gun nest in WW2. I can say what would be going through my mind though. I'm bigger than a field mouse, slower than a field mouse, the machine gun no doubt has more than 7 shots, and it better not be aiming at me or I am dead.
I've thought about that a lot over my life. It is very humbling to think how I might have done had I been the mouse. It is also one reason I am so grateful that I never had to fight in a war.
Let's just say it is not something we're used to seeing on "A-Team" TV.
The Pacific was very difficult to watch. How did they endure those conditions?
mab,
May 13, 2010
Former MLB star desperate to raise cash
Dykstra, 47, hopes a diehard fan will shell out $3,200 for a framed, autographed montage highlighting his days with the New York Mets and Philadelphia Phillies.
"If you purchase this item, you will also receive a personal phone call" from Dykstra, the ad says.
It better come with a stock tip! ;)
Dykstra ain't got nothin' on Dan Marino!
Dan Marino's home for sale in Weston, Florida
"$13.5 million may seem like a lot of money, but it's actually a steal. When you purchase the Marino estate you also get $1.5 million worth of designer furniture and a autographed football."
Yep, it's a steal!! Just think, you could sell the football and just about break even, don't ya' think???
Now that's sarcasm for 'ya...
G.H.,
From your link...
The home was originally priced at $15 million three years ago. The price has been dropped two times and so far remains unsold.
The home comes pre-fumbled!
GG, shooting a running mouse with a .22 is very impressive!!
From my voluntary 4 month army reserves training in canada, I discovered that one does not have to be a sniper to shoot someone else in the head 300' away! The realization terrified me!
remy,
From my voluntary 4 month army reserves training in canada, I discovered that one does not have to be a sniper to shoot someone else in the head 300' away! The realization terrified me!
I hear that. Even a teenager with a cheap .22 carbine rifle and a cheap scope could do that if given a few chances. We used to shoot soda cans. I can't recall the range, but they weren't all that close.
I've played paintball a few times in my life. There are some people who will always lose. They just get too chatty or think they are somehow safer in groups.
I think about that during Vietnam War movies where the veterans really don't want to get to know the fresh replacements.
Once those people are gone though, it can be a very humbling experience.
I survived one round to the very end, but it was probably too close to really call. I didn't realize that I'd been shot in the gun. Like most people, my system was pumped up with adrenaline.
Once the lights came on it could be argued that my gun hand was shot off. It was decided in my favor but I was certainly willing to concede defeat.
Mark,
Speaking of scopes, the canadian issue C7 (copy of the M4A1) that i practiced with had a sight (scope). The great thing about the army is that I got to practice shooting for free (in fact I got paid somewhere between $50-$70 a day)not bad for a summer break program...
I think if i ever played paintball I would stay in a small safe spot for hours. after seeing bruises on peoples bodies I just can't do it!
cheers
remy
remy,
It was an indoor arena with lots of plywood ramps and walls. There were no safe spots but there were "safer" spots. The safer spots had less light. That's about it though, lol.
The floor was very unsafe. It was covered in waxy wet paint (from the paint balls). It was hard to move quickly.
The least safe spot was a well lit long corridor with only two ways in or out (both ends). Why anyone would walk down that death trap is beyond me. I'm reminded of a guaranteed kill when three chatty individuals walked down it though. I didn't even have to aim. I just fired down the center of the hallway knowing I'd hit something AND knowing they'd all suddenly be a LOT more chatty, lol.
I almost thought it was a trap to lure me out of the darkness. Almost! Hahaha! I sure as heck didn't hang around to see who I hit though.
haha! corridor of death! should have had a candid camera set up to mock those who walked through it...
remy,
In high school my entire class (about 20 people) was at a teacher's house and he provided us with an assortment of water pistols in a bucket so that we could have a water fight.
Most fought over the best weapons to some degree. I did not participate. I picked the tiniest squirt gun that was left. My friend took the best weapon of the bunch though. It was a bit surprising that nobody else wanted it.
It was never really my intention to get anyone else wet. I was just the bait for Mr. Bucket Man. Hahaha!
There were some VERY wet participants before that battle was over.
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