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February 10, 2015
Despite Commodity Rout, Material Sector at All-Time High
People often ask us why we rely on objective, quantitative models to identify investment opportunities as opposed to popular theory, forecasts or intuition.
That's funny. When I started this blog, I was often asked why I didn't rely on the opinions of popular celebrities, fortune telling, or astrology. I'd just shrug my shoulders. At some point, the questions became unbearable. Why did so many people often ask me this?
You might find this hard to believe as well, but do you know what else people often asked me? They wanted to know how I became the King of Prussia. Why did they often ask me this? It makes no sense! I don't even live in Pennsylvania!
In all seriousness, if I find it hard to believe the first sentence of an article, then I tend to stop reading. This was one of those times. Should you be able to get past it, then please let me know if there was anything noteworthy and/or more believable in the rest of it.
Further, if you have ever asked any investment professional at any point in your life why he/she doesn't just rely on intuition then I'd like to hear your story. There are apparently many of you out there. Or not. Like I said, I'm finding the claim difficult to believe.
It's kind of like what I would expect to hear from a used car salesman. People often ask me how this car dealership became the most trusted in all the country. Yeah, people often ask that. Right.
You know what people really should ask me? How did I become so cynical? Why is it so hard to trust the advice of investment professionals? I would probably respond by saying that there was massive accounting fraud at the place I last worked. Yeah, that's probably exactly what I would say, because it is absolutely true. Seriously.
They say all that it takes for evil to thrive is for good people to do nothing. I say that all it takes for lies to thrive is for good people to do nothing. It starts with white lies to make a good sales pitch and then slowly the white begins to vanish.
This probably explains how empires fall. Rome did not fall in a day. It started somewhere, maybe even with a seemingly harmless stretch of the truth. You know, like maybe someone mentioned that investment returns may slow but it wasn't anything to really worry about over the long-term. Just stay the course and you should be fine. There's certainly no reason to stop gorging on food. Will you be attending the orgy later this evening? As always, it's right after the gladiator fights in the coliseum. We've reached a new all-time high plateau of prosperity! This is a time to celebrate!! What's the worst that could happen?
Real Estate Newsletter Articles this Week: Existing-Home Sales Increased to
4.15 million SAAR in November
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At the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter this week:
[image: Existing Home Sales]*Click on graph for larger image.*
• NAR: Existing-Home Sales Increase...
16 hours ago
15 comments:
From the link:
The prior high point lines up precisely with two key Fibonacci levels:
That's as far as I could get. "Quantitative" analysis based on trend lines and Fibonacci levels??? WTF!
This is all your fault. I never would read any of this. You lured me in like a Nigerian Prince. Hahaha! The jokes on me.
It's on! Game on!
mab,
That's hilarious!!
I can say with 100% honesty that I really didn't read past the first sentence.
My hat iis off to you for venturing so far into dangerous territory, much like those searching for the Northwest Passage must have felt.
That's right. In the spirit of puns, you were exploring a trade rout! Bravo I say! Bravo!
Northwest Passage
Thus the Octavius may have earned the distinction of being the first Western sailing ship to make the passage, although the fact that it took 13 years and occurred after the crew was dead somewhat tarnishes this achievement.
Somewhat!
Climate models. Investment models. They are all cargo cult simulacrums.
His premise is brilliant. Commodity prices are down, but commodity stocks are at an all time high. You know the you know the old saying, "buy at the all time high and sell even higher."
Rob Dawg,
Dietary models.
I see in the news that it is apparently now okay to eat eggs again. That's good to know because I bever stopped, lol.
Mr Slippery,
Your attempt to lure me into reading the full article (using sarcasm) was nearly successful, but I know that if I do so I will never get that time back. I therefore prefer to remain ignorant of any potential brilliance. ;)
Hey folks, lets get together and buy Mark a new computer - I'm missing the graphs - and starting to get overly optimistic....
Fred
Little known fact:
There are no residency requirements to be the King of Prussia.
Oh, yeah, forgot about the cynical comment and "Rome did not fall in a day."...
I think the thing cynical people* don't take into account is that Rome really didn't completely fall. It kinda lingered on, and the pope moved to France for a bit, and there was a hostile take-over attempt, but then after an extended period of negotiations Rome was re-branded as Italy (after rejecting "New Rome" as being to close to "New Coke") , the pope moved back, new alliances with some new families were formed, and - poof - the Renaissance broke out. And another optimism (and bullshit) bubble was created (as it must when dealing with humans).
* I'm not the most cynical guy on the planet, but when that guy dies I'm gonna take his place.
Anonymous,
If I was the most cynical person in the world then I would worry about the 2nd most cynical person in the world looking to attain the title through nefarious means.
OMG! That's just the sort of thing the most cynical person in the world might say! I better watch my back. Hahaha! ;)
Mark it is rather easy to be cynical when you see through the matrix. You either reject it or embrace it. I choose the former.
Michael,
I took both the blue pill and the red pill. That might have been a mistake. ;)
Re: That might have been a mistake.
HA! Don't think I heard that one yet. I had a good laugh. I need it, I've got a bad cold and I'm doing a software deployment without much sleep. (Don't worry, I don't support any software dealing with checking accounts so it's mostly ok.)
There's nothing worse than sleep deprivation. Okay, maybe sleep deprivation and a bad cold. Okay, maybe sleep deprivation, a bad cold, and a geavily workload.
That's it though. There's nothing worse than that. Yet.
In all seriousness, get well soon!
geavily = heavy
There's nothing worse than iPhone typos.
I may not have a good grasp of "nothing worse" theories today, lol. Sigh.
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