The following chart shows the natural log of the dividends to wages ratio. When using natural logs, constant exponential growth is seen as a straight line. I have added two trend lines in red (one for the peaks and one for the troughs).
The two trend lines can be traced back to where they meet. The year was roughly 1971. Doubt it's a coincidence. I'm tempted to say that falling off of the gold standard is when the illusion of long-term prosperity truly began. Kind of makes me feel like a prosperity chart archeologist.
As disturbing as that is, I'm not done yet. Note that:
1. Bad things often happen when we move towards the troughs.
2. We've been moving towards a trough lately.
3. Very bad things have been happening lately.
4. Should we ultimately reach the next trough, there's still a very long way to go.
Real Estate Newsletter Articles this Week: Existing-Home Sales Increased to
4.15 million SAAR in November
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At the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter this week:
[image: Existing Home Sales]*Click on graph for larger image.*
• NAR: Existing-Home Sales Increase...
14 hours ago
6 comments:
Dividends have a long way to fall, which means stock markets have a long way to fall.
Stock market crushed. Bond market crushed. High inflation. Mortgage rates very high. Home prices very high. Unemployment rate projected to rise. Fed raising rates until something breaks, again. There’s certainly great potential for a Greater Recession.
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/fredgraph.png?g=UkUs
Welcome back to 1979.
https://youtube.com/watch?v=xZzEzDkeHzI&feature=share&si=EMSIkaIECMiOmarE6JChQQ
Carter made his "bad luck" overseas. Biden makes his "bad luck" at home.
Who Struck John,
And I made my bad luck by taking 2 weeks to approve your comment. Sorry about that!
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