I live in the USA and I am concerned about the future. I created this blog to share my thoughts on the economy and anything else that might catch my attention.
This is the End and a New Beginning
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I've been thinking about this for some time.
After 21 years of writing this blog almost daily, I've decided to stop
writing the daily updates on the blog.
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Silver Deep Dive
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Silver had a memorable year (+148%). Some of this can be explained by a
decline in the dollar. I decided to do some ML analysis to look for other
insights....
I stuck to the plan for the month of June. So far so good.
I think a reduced appetite indirectly explains this far better than the direct effect of increased exercise. I climbed 600 extra flights of stairs for the month but that should only have burned a pound at most.
The 12 ounce glass of water way have been important. I think it displaced some hunger. I'd drink the water just before climbing the stairs. Generally speaking, I was less hungry after I exercised than before it.
And lastly, some of this may be seasonal. I tend to weigh more in the winter than I do in the summer. Summer is here.
In any event, I'm certainly willing to celebrate. I may actually get to the blue zone ahead of schedule.
Happy 4th of July everyone! I'm heading off to see my family and won't be back until the 5th.
Long-term, I absolutely believe that the Goldilocks combination of strong growth and weak inflation is over. We'll either have less growth, higher inflation, or both. I do not have a good handle on the weighting between growth and inflation though. That's why I have owned inflation protected treasuries and I continue to own them.
From Mihir Worah:
But let me touch upon one other asset class that we feel is very important: inflation-linked bonds. In the U.S., for example, they have the same credit risk as regular U.S. Treasuries, but the interest payments and principal are linked to the rate of inflation. To be sure, there is currently a valuation issue with inflation-linked bonds as real rates on such bonds are low. But we believe those rates are likely to stay low – one way for developed markets to escape from their debt overhang is by artificially keeping real rates low, either through regulation or through higher inflation via inflationary/low-rate policies. So in our view, inflation-linked bonds have the potential to hold their value while serving as a cornerstone of an inflation-hedging strategy.
I too believe that real rates will remain low. I've been predictingthe death of real yieldssince starting this blog (and long before it). TIPS are therefore not just my cornerstone. They are nearly my entire stone.
I have been investing in TIPS and I-Bonds since 2000. I don't think it will work out as well in the future as it has in the past, but I do think it will continue to protect me. If nothing else, if I hold TIPS until maturity at least I won't require a greater fool at any point in the process.
By owning TIPS and I-Bonds, I bet that one of the following five conditions would be met and I continue to bet that way.
1. Moderate growth with high inflation. 2. Low growth with moderate inflation. 3. Zero growth with low inflation. 4. Low negative growth with zero inflation. 5. Moderate negative growth with actual deflation.
In other words, I don't see TIPS as an inflation bet. I can't predict inflation with any accuracy. It depends on too many factors that are outside of my control. Right or wrong, I did think I could predict inflation rising compared to growth though (either because inflation rises, growth falls, or both).
As a side note, I think the Fed is attempting #2 from my list. For the most part, we've averaged #2 over the past decade. We've had low growth with moderate inflation (with episodes of #1 through #5 from the list). That's about the best they can do though. Although some may feel the Fed plays the role of a deity, they can no more create prosperity out of thin air than they can transform dollars (water) into oil (wine).
The following chart shows where nonfarm payrolls would be if the employment trend from 1939 to 2000 was still in effect. I've shared this chart in previous posts.
Click to enlarge.
The following chart shows how much nonfarm payrolls have deviated from the long-term exponential trend. It's just the difference between the current value and the red trend line in the previous chart.
Click to enlarge.
This is not the only chart where this shape appears. Compare and contrast it to the real cumulative trade deficit. In the following chart I have taken our trade deficit each quarter, adjusted it for inflation, and then added them all up.
Click to enlarge.
And now for some sarcasm.
It would seem that if we send our jobs overseas then eventually we don't have as many jobs, and without jobs we can't actually afford to buy overpriced homes. How could anyone have possibly predicted this outcome? It's certainly very puzzling.
You probably think it is the headline itself. Not exactly.
"The people that we deal with a lot on Wall Street are some of the most ethical people I know." - Jamie Dimon, CEO and chairman of JPMorgan Chase & Co.
No! That's not it. You'd think it was it but you'd be wrong.
"It's so unfair to talk about Wall Street and ethics." - Jamie Dimon, CEO and chairman of JPMorgan Chase & Co.
Nope. That's not it either. That quote sure seemed like a sure thing though. Right? Unfortunately, there can be only one quote of the day. Sorry.
We are in this kind of malaise of some sort. Some of that is understandable. - Jamie Dimon, CEO and chairman of JPMorgan Chase & Co.
We're in a kind of malaise of some sort and some of it is understandable?
Priceless!
Here's a chart of just some of the malaise for those who might have missed it.
Click to enlarge.
The chart shows where total nonfarm payrolls would be if the employment trend from 1939 to 2000 was still in effect today. Note that we are now 38.2 million jobs below the trend line. Further, our odds of returning to the trend line at any point in the distant future are worse than a snowball's chance in hell.
This might not mean much to the CEO of a large multinational banking corporation, but down here on planet earth we tend to notice the complete and utter failure of a major exponential trend. We are especially likely to notice it when our entire economy depends upon it continuing.
Ron Meyers, 51, a handyman from Little Rock, Ark., was doubtful that he could afford the drive to visit family in Pennsylvania. Now, thanks to cheaper gas, the trip is on. And he plans on seeing a few more summer movies, too.
"You can go out and have a good time, and have a little money left in your pocket," he said.
We've done this because, as with any Ponzi scheme, new growth provides the illusion of prosperity. In the near term, revenue grows, while the corresponding maintenance obligations -- which are not counted on the public balance sheet -- are a generation away.
You'll definitely enjoy reading this article in its entirety. That's assuming you like reading horror stories that is.
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