Wednesday, December 31, 2014

New Year's Resolutions for 2015

First, let's look back at 2014.

December 31, 2013
New Year's Resolutions for 2014

1. Climb more stairs.
2. Eat more food.

Mission accomplished! I climbed a lot more stairs (a lifetime personal best) and ate a lot more food (also a lifetime personal best)!

Unfortunately, I weigh more now than I did when I started. Sigh. Getting Shingles in the spring really did some damage to me both on a physical and mental level. That was roughly 4 months without any exercise at all to speak of (just laid there on the couch like a boneless chicken). It also took out yet another hiking season (the previous year was lost to a very serious ankle sprain). It really brought me down. Very depressing.

You can see the symptoms in the four months of reduced blog posting activity (April through September).

1. Don't get Shingles.
2. See Rule #1.

For what it is worth, I was severely deficient in Vitamin D (as was confirmed with a blood test during my annual physical). I live in the Pacific Northwest. I intend to take Vitamin D supplements for life. It's possible that this deficiency helped trigger Shingles for me, especially since my ankle injury in the summer of 2013 kept me inside and away from the sun. Who knows?

50 miles of vertical is my minimum goal. It will take me 10,560 minutes. That's exactly 7 days and 8 hours of exercise. I'll need to average roughly 30 minutes per day (slightly more than that to cover when I'm potentially sick or out of town of course).


0:25:08:00

Or bust! That's the minimum time I wish to see a year from now.




Mission accomplished! Two hours to spare! I hadn't really factored in what Shingles could do ("slightly more than that" indeed), but I made it to the goal just the same. Whew! I got off to an excellent start before the Shingles hit and managed to make up the lost time in the fall and winter. Thank goodness I set this goal in public or who knows where I'd be now.

It is also my intent to make climbing 20 flights of stairs each and every day a permanent habit again.

Mission accomplished!

It was my intent. Even with Shingles, I never stopped intending to exercise each and every day, lol. Hurray! Saved by a technicality! And Vicodin! And Naproxen! And Tylenol! The latter two did nothing for me at all near as I could tell, especially the Tylenol.

And for those curious, I had no chance of getting hooked on Vicodin. It offered great relief but when you've got chronic pain and only have about 70 pills spread out over 3-4 months, it's a bit like throwing water balloons at a house fire. The directions said I could take 1-2 every 4-6 hours. Good luck on keeping up that pace! Try 2 every other day or so (one alone generally wasn't all that effective). Let's just say that I have great sympathy for those who experience ongoing chronic pain.

Here are my New Year's resolutions for 2015.

1. Climb even more stairs.
2. Don't eat even more food!
3. Drink at least one extra glass of water each day.
4. Lose some weight.
5. More hiking!

I'm back to 227 pounds, and at 6'3" that's just too much to be comfortable. I don't care how much I lose, but I do want to see progress in the downward direction.

I'm increasing my pace from a leisurely 25 feet per minute to 30 feet per minute. I'm shooting for 60 miles of climbing. It will take me the same 7 days and 8 hours of total exercise (~29 minutes per day on average). It would be another lifetime personal best if I can do it.

Assuming the timer flips at 30 days, I therefore wish to see the following minimum time on the exercise timer at the end of 2015.

1:02:18:00

The primary goal for 2015 is not to lose weight or to eat less food. It's to be in good shape for the hiking season. The weight will come off naturally if I'm outside doing something I really enjoy doing. In general, I gain weight in the winter and lose it in the summer. 2014's summer was a complete nothingburger though. And on that note...

Happy New Year! :)

Thursday, December 25, 2014

A "Soft Landing" Christmas Miracle (Musical Tribute)

The following chart shows the annual change in the 13-week moving average of initial claims.


Click to enlarge.

The 13-week average of initial claims hasn't been this low since the year 2000 (not seen in the chart). That alone might make one believe in miracles, but wait, there's more.

Should we continue on the current parabolic trend in red, initial claims will actually go negative within 2 years!

Don't you see what this means? Not only will all layoffs be a distant memory, but people will actually be plucked right of the street and placed in cubicle farms! Perhaps even against their will! Oh, the humanity!

May 10, 2014
Warren Buffett on the Fed: Bernanke Was a Hero

Zero rates have had a huge effect on rejuvenating the economy and asset prices. We are not in a bubble situation at all right now, but it is an unusual situation.

Bernanke, what a hero! He kept rates at zero! Who said anything about bubbles?

December 24, 2014
Don’t Be a Hero, Leave Rates at Zero

Talking about raising rates makes sense to contain excess speculations. Actually raising rates makes no sense until inflation arrives in earnest.

Yellen, don't be a hero! Keep rates at zero! Who said anything about excess speculations?

Swamped in Unusual Situations


Once we've bought the sure things
Once we've bought the sure things
Once we've bought the sure things
Once we've bought the sure things
Oh, no

Risk assets
They are fueled by doves
We know not all gains can be realized

Risk assets who cares?
When they turn around
And we know that they descend down for free

The trend is underway
The risk is gone
Don't be alarmed
That a few have sold
Few have sold
Few have sold

Risk assets
Can't replace the lie
Scary shadows of the past are implied

Risk assets who cares?
When they turn around
And we know trends can descend by a mile

The trend is underway
The risk is gone
Don't be alarmed
That a few might sell today

It's just a parody
That risk is free
Don't be alarmed
That a few have sold

Once we've bought the sure things
Once we've bought the sure things
Once we've bought the sure things
Once we've bought the sure things
Oh, no

The trend is underway
The risk is gone
Don't be alarmed
That a few might sell today

It's just a parody
That risk is free
Don't be alarmed
That a few have sold
Few have sold
Few have sold

Source Data:
St. Louis Fed: Custom Chart

Wednesday, December 24, 2014

Cocoa in Slow Mo



Mark put one of Cocoa's favorite toys on top of his head. It drives Cocoa kookoo!!

Tuesday, December 23, 2014

Merry Craftiness! (Musical Tribute)



Happy amusement to you and yours! :)

When Can We Expect a Complete Housing Recovery?

The following chart shows the 12-month moving total of new one family housing units sold per capita.


Click to enlarge.

Let's zoom in for a closer look.


Click to enlarge.

Due to the exponential trend failure, we can no longer expect a complete housing recovery in 2017. The new estimate is just this side of never.

Source Data:
St. Louis Fed: Custom Chart

Exponential Trend Failure of the Day: Long-Term Nominal Hourly Earnings Growth (Musical Tribute)

The following chart shows the average hourly earnings of private production and nonsupervisory employees. I have added an exponential trend in red.


Click to enlarge.

Note the trend failure.

The next chart shows the deviation of the hourly earnings from the long-term trend.


Click to enlarge.

Check out that recovery.

1. We're now more than 5% below the long-term trend.
2. The linear free fall continues.



Source Data:
St. Louis Fed: Average Hourly Earnings of Production and Nonsupervisory Employees: Total Private

Monday, December 22, 2014

The Sarcasm Report v.203

December 16, 2014
U.S. News and World Report: Living Paycheck to Paycheck: 7 Strategies for Survival

If you're always short on cash, here's how to take control of your finances.

Plan for the worst.



Try to save.

Seattle Seahawks Quote of the Day

December 22, 2014
Seahawks punter will fight you if you talk crap about Seahawks kicker

If anyone out there wants to talk crap about our kicker who is one of the best in the game u can meet me at the swing set at recess to fight. - Jon Ryan

I love the sarcastic grade school imagery. There's just no good comeback for that. Hahaha!

Steven Hauschka had a bad day. There's no denying that. The first two field goal attempts were long and missed to the right. As a believer in return to the mean theories, I cringed as he lined up for that third long attempt. Would he overcompensate to the left?  Let's just say that, on average, they all went right between the posts. D'oh!

Don't let it get you down Steven. In the grand scheme of things, who among us aren't entitled to one bad day? You carried the team in the past, and Sunday it was the team's chance to carry you. What goes around, comes around.

And carry you they did. It was like every member on the team wasn't going to let you go home knowing that we lost the game by a single failed field goal attempt, much less three. A 29 point spread pretty much assured that. Talk about overkill. Wow!

Go Hauschka! Go Seahawks! :)