Headline CPI Prediction

Briefing.com is predicting -0.2% and the consensus is at 0.0%.

That sounds fairly reasonable to me. I might even be inclined to lean towards the -0.2%.

August was a light month for both oil and commodities in general. They have since bounced back but we shouldn't see that show up until September's CPI (released in October).

Oil
Commodities

We also saw a weak jobs report and wage growth was relatively benign.

Employment Report for August

Tack on some possible fear from a stock market that was down (in August anyway) and the headlines filled with subprime woes and there's plenty of reason to think that the CPI might come in a bit light.

If so, it might make me feel a bit better about Bernanke's rate cut. Not much better mind you, since oil and commodities have bounced higher, again.

I'm certainly open to deflation in the short-term (as can be seen by my new Inflation Mood indicator in the corner of my blog, lol). I'm mostly worried about inflation in the long-term.

On a personal note, my Costco stopped carrying Campbell's tomato soup (yeah, I know, but it takes me back to my youth). It is finally on sale at a grocery store near me (60 cents a can). So begins the great tomato soup can hoarding of 2007!