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Japan's Lost Decade Threatens to Be Global Norm: William Pesek
A balance needs to be found. The world may require a bit less John Maynard Keynes and bit more Milton Friedman. Keynesian stimulus will only delay a necessary slowdown and lead to even more of the monetary-fueled inflation of which Friedman warned.
Policy makers are merely putting off the inevitable and treating the symptoms of what ails the global economy. If they aren't careful, Japan's experience during the 1990s will become a familiar one.
``It's not a scenario many expect for the West or for Asia,'' Chan says. ``But I'm not sure it can be ruled out.''
Nobody expects the weasel.
Pop Goes the Weasel
The original theme seems to have been a darkly humorous vignette of the cycle of poverty among workers in the environs of London. The "weasel" may refer to a spinner's weasel, a mechanical yarn measuring device consisting of a spoked wheel with an internal ratcheting mechanism that clicks every two revolutions and makes a "pop" sound after the desired length of yarn is measured. "Pop goes the weasel", in this meaning, describes the repetitive sound of a machine governing the tedious work of textile workers toiling for subsistence wages. In the context of the rhyme then the first three lines of each verse describe various ways of spending one's meager wages, with "pop goes the weasel" indicating a return to unpleasant labour.
Real Estate Newsletter Articles this Week: Existing-Home Sales Increased to
4.15 million SAAR in November
-
At the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter this week:
[image: Existing Home Sales]*Click on graph for larger image.*
• NAR: Existing-Home Sales Increase...
11 hours ago
9 comments:
Stag,
My you're up early. Perhaps the sound of a bubble deflating woke you.
Enjoyed the gallows humor. What good is misery if you can't enjoy it?
BTW, I see a little less hope today.
Also, forget about Pain City. It's becoming universal.
MAB,
My you're up early. Perhaps the sound of a bubble deflating woke you.
I keep falling asleep on the couch, lol. I seem to play Rock Band to the exhaustion point then wake up to CNBC's "AMERICA'S OIL CRISIS" perma-headline (colored in orange as if all uppercase wasn't enough). I continue to be in awe of it, much like a gawker at an automobile accident.
Also, forget about Pain City. It's becoming universal.
I was working under the assumption that "term" pain was the way to go. We've had two terms of it so far. I must admit I tried to cancel the policy in 2004 but it didn't work. Now our leaders are trying to sell us "universal" and "whole life" pain too? Just how much coverage do we need?
Enjoyed the gallows humor. What good is misery if you can't enjoy it?
Yeah, um, it's just humor. There's nothing to worry about. We're all going to um, be fine. Um. Well. There's um. Well. Nothing to see here. You know. Um. Gosh.
I am your number one fan. There is nothing to worry about. You are going to be just fine. I am your number one fan. - Annie Wilkes, Misery, 1990
Although I generally like a good horror movie, I had a very hard time watching that one. I can't watch 90 minutes of it in a row any more than I can watch 90 minutes of CNBC in a row. Too much cringing. I don't really mind being put in the horror movie victim role as I watch, but don't start me off with broken legs (and/or a massive trade deficit, budget deficits, massive debt, a popping housing bubble, and so on).
Stag,
Speaking of the economy and "hobbling"
http://www.csmonitor.com/2007/0730/p15s02-wmgn.html
>12% at or below the poverty line. I wonder how many have mortgages, auto loans, credit card debt, etc. A hobble along economy might be optimistic.
Stag,
Couple of points. YOY import prices were up 20.5%, the largest increase in like forever. Now that's prosperity. Whoohoo! Michigan consumer sentiment yearly inflation expectations rose to 5.3%, the highest since 1981. Double whoohoo with whipped cream to that. Something doesn't seem to balance here - 20.5% vs. 5.3%. Perhaps it's a leading vs. lagging thing.
On a brighter note, the stock market finished down, but well off its low for the day. I'm sure Dennis Kneale would give that a big whooho, but it seems like whipped cream on horseshit to me. I guess I just lack Mr. Kneale's optimism.
Also, the polling firm Gallup is changing its name to Gallow. I can't imagine why.
MAB,
>12% at or below the poverty line. I wonder how many have mortgages, auto loans, credit card debt, etc. A hobble along economy might be optimistic.
From your link...
One unresolved issue is how to measure poverty. When last year's poverty numbers came out, for example, Nicholas Eberstadt of the American Enterprise Institute noted that today's officially poor (versus those of four decades ago) are more likely to have access to credit, spend relatively less on food, and have more housing space.
There are tens of thousands of payday loan centers across the country now. Apparently the poor have never had it so good.
They also receive better healthcare.
Not a day goes by when I don't picture the homeless taking advantage of specialized million dollar medical equipment and lodging in private hospital suites thanks to their excellent health insurance coverage. Oops. I'm not sure those negatives cancelled out properly. I meant a day never goes by. Days go by when I don't think. Oh nevermind. Look, I'm low on sleep. It wasn't just stocks that sold off today. My TIPS had a rough day as well. It seems nobody wants US assets these days. They went for the "sure thing" (gold) instead it seems.
Many own cars, televisions, telephones, microwaves, and VCRs or DVD players.
VCRs? It is next to impossible to find high quality 8-track tapes anymore. I remember growing up enjoying the sweet sound of multiple songs playing at the same time. Let's also not forget digital cameras. I just got an offer from US Bank to enroll in AutoAdvantage for a mere $14.99 a month with the chance of winning a camera. In the shocker of the decade, I was seriously surprised I did not win. However, I actually couldn't win. There was no scratch off ticket enclosed. One wonders if they couldn't afford to make any more "gold" scratch off tickets. Oh well! I guess I'll have to pass on the nearly $180 annual membership fees. Without the cheap digital camera, I can't imagine paying nearly $3,600 over the next twenty years (assuming they don't raise prices at some point).
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stereo_8
If the azimuth of the head became misadjusted, there would be a faint audio bleed of adjacent tracks into the currently playing track...
8-tracks were also introduced the year I was born.
1964. Good times. Good times. I'm told the doctor didn't need to slap me as I entered this brave new world. He just showed me the new United States quarter and I immediately burst into tears. (1964 was also the year that the silver content in quarters went from 90% to 0%.)
One last thought.
http://www.consumeraffairs.com/news04/2005/trilegiant_inside.html
If you're one of those unfortunate souls who've found unauthorized charges on your credit card from programs like AutoAdvantage -? a "trial offer" that ends up being billed to your account repeatedly without your consent -? then you may already be at least familiar with Trilegiant.
There must be a particular part of my brain hardwired to vomit when I read this stuff, since vomitting seems like a really good plan right now.
Trilegiant is billed by Cendant's public relations department as a "successor" to its membership and marketing services, but it is still listed as a subsidiary or "branch" business on the main Cendant Web site. Press reports that discuss the Trilegiant/Cendant relationship variously characterize the companies as corporate parent and spinoff, independent business partners, or full-blown subsidiaries.
Nevermind. My brain isn't hardwired it seems. That's sure a relief. This all just stems from my subconscious and its fears of where I once worked (Cendant).
MAB,
Also, the polling firm Gallup is changing its name to Gallow. I can't imagine why.
That's probably because you didn't catch the other name change. It makes more sense when you realize they are changing the "poll" into a pole.
Gallows Pole Shows Oil Prices Have Probably Come to a "Head" and Are Poised to "Pike" No Higher
Expect to see this headline once we put our money back onto the barbaric gold standard. Needless to say, I'm not expecting the headline anytime soon. If it happens in my lifetime I've no doubt lost my entire nest egg to hyperinflation.
What I wouldn't give for more gallows humor puns. The world surely needs more of them. We could have routed the $5 trillion mess over at Fannie and Freddie into gallows pun research if there had been adequate warning.
``It's not a scenario many expect for the West or for Asia,'' Chan says. ``But I'm not sure it can be ruled out.''
That is why it is almost assured to happen, most don't expect it. In what I see happening here, in the markets and around the world's political conflicts it a given.
Kevin
Kevin,
That is why it is almost assured to happen, most don't expect it.
If true, it will not bode well for the contrarians. Based solely on market sentiment, the herd thinks things will get worse. Contrarians love to bet against the herd. As a wanna be contrarian I can certainly sympathize with the mindset. Just two problems. First, the herd isn't always wrong. Second, contrarianism seems way too popular (if the sheer number of hedge funds and/or the number of times "contrarian" are mentioned on TV is any indicator).
I saw a fascinating interview with Michael Steinhardt this week and managed to dig up the quote that really caught my attention.
http://www.istockanalyst.com/article/viewarticle+articleid_2390518~title_Michael-Steinhardt--Too.html
I think we have a conundrum. I think that there is rarely a moment such as this where, as a contrarian, one sees so many reasons technically, stockmarketwise, to be bullish. . . . more shorts, more negativism, more unhappiness with more things, more concern. There’s a real pall over America, I think. And all that has lead to a serious decline in the market, a serious, continuous decline in the market with hardly a rally. So with all that laying on the market, I can’t imagine a circumstance where a market is more available, more ripe for a rally than this one. Period. But I can’t end there. Having said that — and I try not to speak out of two sides of my mouth — I think that this time it really is different, that there are genuine solid, fearful reasons for a bear market here and we’re in the midst of it. — Michael Steinhardt
He went on to speak of just how sick so much of the market is. He mentioned auto manufacturing, airlines, housing, deficits, banking, the mortgage industry, brokers, and so on.
I was cringing as he spoke of the contrarian reasons to be bullish. That story is done to death. I cringed more as he offered the reasons to not be bullish. I cringed most when he said that this time it really is different. I've been a believer in the this time it is really different theory since 2004. It seemed much more of a long shot back then than it does now. The odds are clearly improving (if you call increasing despair an improvement). If it really is different, well...
Change
http://despair.com/changewinds.html
Perfect for
Disaffected, price-sensitive college students
One more thought.
Disaffected
http://dictionary.reference.com/search?db=dictionary&q=disaffected
discontented and disloyal, as toward the government or toward authority
Who isn't?
http://latimesblogs.latimes.com/presidentbush/2008/06/bush-thinks-pol.html
Bush thinks polls about him are wrong
I'm disaffected and price-sensitive. No wonder I like the poster.
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