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Here's that very same data plotted on a log chart. Constant exponential growth rates show up as a straight line. As you can see, the growth rate in the total cost of the annual world production of aluminum has been extremely steady for the past century.
Aluminum was $1.21 per pound in 2008. It currently trades at $0.88 per pound. The power of modern mining equipment has not been kind to aluminum hoarders. Much of the gains in the total cost of the annual world production of aluminum has come not from higher prices but from exponentially increasing production.
Copper was $3.19 per pound in 2008. It currently trades at $2.94 per pound. It still seems extremely expensive to me.
Silver was $16.44 per troy ounce in 2008. It currently trades at $17.83. It seems very expensive to me.
Gold was $871 per troy ounce in 2008. It currently trades at $1193. I think gold is very expensive. It is well above its long-term exponential growth line (just like it was the last time investors embraced the gold story in the late 1970s).
I must be a mouse. I have no interest in hoarding copper, gold, or silver at these prices. I think speculation has driven their prices up well past the point of finding value and I do not trust the Chinese economic miracle story. I think there will be a limit to how much copper, gold and silver they can or will want to accumulate. That will be especially true if their real estate market falls apart and they attempt to reenact our Great Depression.
China on the cusp of real estate slump: Standard Chartered
HONG KONG (MarketWatch) -- Real estate prices in major Chinese cities are set to decline significantly in the coming months as developers grapple with bloated inventories and skittish buyers, according to recent research.
Just opinions of course!
See Also:
Trend Line Disclaimer
Source Data:
USGS: Historical Mineral Statistics
4 comments:
Stag,
Nice charts!
Just opinions of course!
Sure, but at least the opinions are non biased, well reasoned and supported by long term historical data. That's more than I can say about the opinions of the so called "experts" in the propagandist media.
mab,
I'd like to think I am less biased on metals than many, if only because I don't have a position in them one way or another. It's therefore not like I can profit or lose based on what the prices do.
I can say that I am fascinated by the pricing though. Aluminum pricing is definitely the most interesting to me, if only because it is the rise in aluminum prices that would make me most worried about rising metal prices in general.
If the central bankers can inflate roughly 8% of the earth's crust (aluminum), then they could probably inflate everything.
They aren't doing a very good job of that though.
25 Years of Aluminum Prices
Alcoa Stock
Mark
Appreciate your work
Jus me. (Posting from a mobile device I can bearly operate
But I was happily surprised I can get your work on mobile devices)
jus me,
I was similarly happily surprised the day I found out that I could post comments using my Playstation 3. :)
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