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10 Reasons To Buy a Home
Demand and supply will meet. The population is forecast to grow by more than 100 million people over the next 40 years. That means maybe 40 million new households looking for homes.
Will there be 40 million more jobs too? I ask because there's been virtually no jobs added in the last decade and the retail trade bubble may be collapsing.
I also ask because 28 people can apparently fit in just one van.
Meanwhile, this housing glut will work itself out.
Invest in the glut or forever be priced out?
See Also:
Households vs. Payrolls
8 comments:
Very interesting. If you asked most people, they would have guessed that retail trade as percentage of employment would have have shrank over that period.
Consider Wal-Mart and amazon.com as examples of economies of scale and on-line shopping. You'd think that would severely reduce retail trade headcount.
Does the figures include restaurants? Maybe that's where it's at.
Coba
Coba,
You'd think that would severely reduce retail trade headcount.
I'd think. *shrug shoulders*
Does the figures include restaurants? Maybe that's where it's at.
It does not include restaurants. That's an entirely different can of worms ("Accommodation and food services").
Table B-1. Employees on nonfarm payrolls by industry sector and selected industry detail
Gold stores? Gun stores?
Maybe you could add in the dates where Circuit City and Linen's N Things went out of business.
or maybe it was just overbuilding, possibly following the overbuilding of homes. (The stores follow them.)
Is Lowes and Home Depot closing stores now?
Coba
Coba,
Perhaps as women entered the workforce retailers needed more staff?
I can't speak for all guys, but I tend to just wander around the store looking for the things I need. My girlfriend is very quick to ask for help.
I hope this isn't considered a sexist thing to say. If anything, I'm the one with the problem, lol. I'd prefer to not interact in a store even if it takes me longer. I've got a stubborn independent streak. ;)
Greeters to stop the shoplifters?
Security guards?
People who fix the motorized shopping carts (I find those offensive somehow.)
Coba
Coba,
Greeters to stop the shoplifters?
That's a personal favorite of mine.
It reminds me that my local Wal-Mart had self-checkouts for a year or two. They don't any longer.
I can guess why they stopped.
It may simply be that we have too many stores, with too much floor space, and the workers are there to staff the stores.
Commercial Real Estate is horrifyingly overbuilt, especially heading into a post-credit-boom "new normal" shopping environment. (i.e. in the absence of per-capita credit expansion, consumers in the aggregate can only spend what they earn going forward, not more.)
Wisdom Seeker,
"It may simply be that we have too many stores, with too much floor space, and the workers are there to staff the stores."
If true, and I strongly suspect that it is, there is nothing that the Fed can do to fix that.
You recently posted the following on your blog.
Will Keeping Interest Rates Low Actually Stimulate the Economy?
Implicit behind this is the idea that lower interest rates stimulate the economy. There’s a lot of history behind the approach, but does it still hold true in today’s environment? I am not so sure.
I am not sure either.
I'm a saver without a job. If I cannot make money off of my money then I must cut back expenses. If the Fed forces me to buy something then it certainly won't like what I buy. Here's a picture of it.
8.6% Return on Investment!
If other savers are like me then the money we spend will not be helping the economy in the slightest. We're simply pulling future demand forward.
So that brings us to the debtors. Are lower interest rates helping them? I would argue... not much.
Banks aren't lending to those with serious debt problems and are resisting the idea of refinancing to those who are underwater on their mortgages. I'd also be very surprised if credit card interest rates have dropped enough to even notice, if they have even dropped at all.
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