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So what's the problem? Here's that same data plotted a different way.
The chart screams two things to me.
1. Unsustainable Trade Deficit
2. Unsustainable Commercial Real Estate Bubble
September 20, 2010
RISING CHINA TRADE DEFICIT WILL COST ONE-HALF MILLION U.S. JOBS IN 2010
U.S. imports from China tend to be much more labor intensive than U.S. exports to China.
That means our trade deficit is causing even more employment pain that would normally be expected.
September 23, 2010
Many Office Building Tenants Expected To Downsize Space As Leases End
Roughly 25% of the nation’s leased office space is set to expire in 2011 or 2012 and tenants are moving into the driver’s seat in negotiating new terms with landlords already pressured by a glut of vacant space. That’s the conclusion of a new report by Encino, Calif.-based real estate services firm Marcus & Millichap.
September 20, 2010
Calculatd Risk: Moody's: Commercial Real Estate Price Index declined 3.1% in July
Moody's reported today that the Moody’s/REAL All Property Type Aggregate Index declined 3.1% in July. This is a repeat sales measure of commercial real estate prices.
Source Data:
EIA: Electricity
14 comments:
Plot the amount of aluminum re-cycled and you will be amazed as it is falling since recycling began. How can that be? Economic malaise as we can no longer afford canned soda? A Teetotaler fad slashing sales of canned beer?
No. The reason is that companies that use aluminum cans have relentlessly made the actual cans themselves use less and less aluminum. (Remember when you were a kid and crushing a can was a sign of your strength.)
While I don't doubt your story in the case of electricity, I wonder how much has been "saved" through better design. Then again, with the number of useless lights on electronic products that NEVER turn off, maybe its the other way around.
Tomorrow I am off to Taiwan and China for 3 months.
Coba
Coba,
Great points!
I can say from personal experience that filled aluminum soda cans will not keep indefinitely. That was even true quite a few years ago and becomes more true each year. Some cans will eventually leak. These days I don't even trust them in the car on the way home from the store. I also have to pick the cans in the store as I would fresh produce. Last time I bought Coca Cola (on sale) there was clearly a leak somewhere. Many of the packs were sticky.
As for electricity use in factories, one would think that residences would also use less and less electricity as we make efforts to conserve. That's true on some things of course, but large screen TVs certainly take some juice to operate.
One thing boosting electricity use for commercial purposes would no doubt be the increasing popularity of 24 hour stores.
One more thought.
Being the first to convert to 24 hour store hours would be a great boost to your business (think grocery stores).
However, once all stores are open 24 hours the advantage would disappear.
One would think that this would drive up costs overall, since it should take more money to operate a business a full 24 hours a day.
It would therefore seem to be best for the industry overall if nobody did it. However, if one business does it then all the competitors pretty much need to do it too.
My brother works in an electrical power plant that supplies industry (whats left of it I suppose).
From what he has said the blue line on the bottom chart is spot on, he is constantly worried about his job as they bring down units no longer needed.
There is just not the demand for electricity as in the past, at least for industry section, I don't know about the commercial and residential.
I thought the key to 24 hour grocery is that they had the lights on anyway to re-stock.
If you have ever been to Germany, you will know what a complete pain in the ass store hours are in Europe.
Keeping longer hours is a very popular decision.
Perhaps its de-industrialization that causes the decline.
How about the rise of low-watt light bulbs? CFL? LED? Plus the solar power outdoor lamps.
Coba
OK, ignore my last comment. I just re-read the graph. Duh. Its de-industrialization or at least industry using less and less.
I wonder what industries are the most energy hogging? aluminum smelting I know uses a lot. injection molding?
Coba
Planning a trip to Portland Mark?
http://io9.com/5649109/hp-lovecraft-film-festival-and-cthulhucon-to-ensnare-portland-this-weekend
Coba,
I thought the key to 24 hour grocery is that they had the lights on anyway to re-stock.
I don't think they had the lights on like it was Christmas though. Just a thought.
One of the grocery stores near me did install LED lights and they used a different lighting policy in the dead of night. In the frozen section the extra lights would sort of follow me around (motion detection?). I don't know if they still do that. I don't normally make a habit of buying at 3am.
GYSC,
Don't think I'm not tempted. Thanks for the link!
H.P. Lovecraft Film Festival and CthulhuCon to ensnare Portland this weekend
CthulhuCon seems to have ensnared our entire economy, lol.
Once a lookout reported fires on the hills to the east, but the sleepy captain said they had better not be looked at too much, since it was highly uncertain just who or what had lit them. - H.P. Lovecraft
The same holds true of the charts I do, lol.
Correction:
Here's a corrected glimpse of annual growth rates. I knew I should have double checked that BEFORE posting it.
From May 1973 to May 2000:
Residential: +2.8%
Commercial: +3.8%
Industrial: +1.7%
From May 2000 to May 2010:
Residential: +1.3%
Commercial: +1.2%
Industrial: -1.3%
Thought you would like that info!
This speaks to market shares but not absolute quantities.
Households have been getting more efficient devices, but there are more devices per household now, and also more households (though not so much the past 10 years).
Industry has been getting more energy-efficient for decades; this is not a new trend. The least energy-efficient industries may also have been preferentially outsourced?
Commercial buildings have probably been getting less energy-efficient (conspicuous consumption era) and of course CRE per capita is now at extremely high levels.
One of my investing theses is that petroleum consumption will wane and electrical energy consumption will grow (in a relative way at least) over the next couple of decades. The electrification of transportation is only just beginning...
Wisdom Seeker,
It will be interesting to see what the future holds.
I don't think Bernanke can reverse a likely fall in the "CRE per capita", and that will have all sorts of implications.
If industry continues to decline and long-term commercial trends reverse, then things will become even more dire.
As a side note, I offered some "absolute quantities" in the comments here earlier today. The 2000s are certainly unlike the previous few decades when it comes to growth rates. Hardly surprising though.
Here's a repeat of the annual growth rates.
From May 1973 to May 2000:
Residential: +2.8%
Commercial: +3.8%
Industrial: +1.7%
From May 2000 to May 2010:
Residential: +1.3%
Commercial: +1.2%
Industrial: -1.3%
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