It's Time for the WABAC Machine

November 26, 2009
John Paulson's Future Performance: No Guarantees

Post-2007, the perception of Paulson went from career underachiever to seer. He is now celebrated, and his recent stakes in Citigroup(C), Bank of America (BAC) and gold are seen as green lights to other investors to buy.

If Paulson told us tomorrow that Martians were going to invade us next month, there would be a run on Martian army gear.

Buy Martian army gear now or forever be priced out!

Survivorship bias leads to celebrating the winners and -- usually -- overinterpreting their moves leading up to their success and trying to apply these actions to future situations. At least no one in the mainstream media has yet called John Paulson "the next Warren Buffett."

This would be one reason to question the premise of my blog of course. I have survivorship bias tendencies. No doubt about it. I'm simply trying to survive this ongoing financial crisis.

Remember Eddie Lampert? That's what Business Week and countless other magazines called him back in 2004. Although many still defend Lampert as smart, his past five years of performance have been very disappointing, and his Sears Holdings (SHLD) investment specifically has been ... early.

Oh we remember Eddie Lampert here. Let me assure you of that.

May 8, 2008
Our Pillars of Retail Strength

I refer you specifically to the comments. It is a day that will live on in heckling heckling heckling infamy (heckling the heckler who heckled the heckling of Sears).

Stock price then: $93.45
Stock price now: $63.75

But hey, Sears will be open on Thanksgiving Day this year. If that isn't proof that Sears is a "Pillar of Retail Strength" then I don't know what is.

November 20, 2010
Is shopping now the new Thanksgiving? No thanks

As you may have heard, Sears will now be open from 7 a.m. to noon on Thanksgiving, so you can rise at dawn and start slapping down the plastic. Yes, beat those ever-escalating post-Thanksgiving prices! This changes everything.

See Also:
WABAC Machine

Source Data:
Yahoo: SHLD