Illusion of Prosperity: Exponential Trend Failure of the Day (Musical Tribute)

Sunday, November 18, 2012

Exponential Trend Failure of the Day (Musical Tribute)

Click to enlarge.

Mere words cannot do the trend line in blue justice.

Source Data:
St. Louis Fed: Industrial Production: Durable Materials

9 comments:

Stagflationary Mark said...: Note that the "sure thing" exponential trend in blue broke spectacularly even with an r-squared of 0.992.; November 18, 2012 at 5:05 PM
Rob Dawg said...: Overlay inflation on top of a best fit sigmoid curve function.; November 18, 2012 at 7:47 PM
Stagflationary Mark said...: Rob Dawg,

It certainly has that look about it.; November 18, 2012 at 10:21 PM
Rob Dawg said...: Something about diminishing returns... I'll remember eventually.; November 18, 2012 at 10:32 PM
Stagflationary Mark said...: This comment has been removed by the author.; November 18, 2012 at 10:42 PM
Stagflationary Mark said...: Rob Dawg,

Diminishing returns you say.

Inflation Adjusted S&P 500 Index (October 2012 Dollars)

2nd attempt's the charm hopefully.; November 18, 2012 at 10:45 PM
Stagflationary Mark said...: (It does not include dividends.); November 18, 2012 at 10:46 PM
Rob Dawg said...: It does not include index component or weighting substitutions either. An important consideration for longer time series.; November 18, 2012 at 11:00 PM
Stagflationary Mark said...: Rob Dawg,

Welcome to the new century.

Home of the "survivor ships"!

Sigh.; November 19, 2012 at 12:02 AM

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