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Poof.
Let's look at the bigger picture and see where we are.
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If transitioning from a goods-producing economy to a service-providing economy is such a good thing, then why does the bulk of the transitioning happen during recessions?
Source Data:
St. Louis Fed: Custom Chart #1
St. Louis Fed: Custom Chart #2
15 comments:
Maybe you just need to invert the charts to see that recessions just speed up the booming service economy. Everybody wins, future is so bright, etc.
On a more serious note, is there some creative destruction going on here, as manufacturing gets more efficient? That eliminates jobs and those people have to find another profession.
This is just a losing battle defending the postwar US wage level from globalization.
Germany and Japan got their nose in the tent early, then the asian tigers, and now China after Deng's policy change, along with Mexico with NAFTA.
Why mfg when you can import!
Apple is trying to assemble the Mac Pro in the US, their order backlog went to February instantly.
http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/MANEMP
6M jobs gone since 1990, a 1/3 decimation. Man.
http://o.homedsgn.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/12/Rattan-House-04.jpg
found a house for you on reddit!
Mr Slippery,
Maybe you just need to invert the charts to see that recessions just speed up the booming service economy.
Genius! Meteor-ology for the win! The more we crater, the brighter it gets!
Troy,
This is just a losing battle defending the postwar US wage level from globalization.
No joke. Our machinists up here in the Seattle area miraculously opted to finally approve the latest Boeing contract.
France is certainly fighting that war with intent to win. They are not known for their brilliant defenses though.
Maginot Line
The success of static, defensive combat in World War I was a key influence on French thinking. Military experts extolled the Maginot Line as a work of genius, believing it would prevent any further invasions from the east.
Oops.
Troy,
found a house for you
I'll need a helipad and a place to anchor my yacht. If I'm going to dream, no point going halfway, lol.
In all seriousness, the odds of my nest egg growing from here in real inflation adjusted terms is from slim to none (and slim left town, lol).
Fortunately, the lifestyle of the rich and famous has never really appealed to me. Free time is more than adequate. My biggest personal expense in 2013 by a wide margin was liver surgery for my dog. Not exactly glamorous!
When Japan was the world's export powerhouse (1960s and 70s) their yen was 4X undervalued to where it ended up earlier this decade.
This was the secret of their success, two factory workers making the same local rate would get $2.50 in Tokyo vs. $10 in Detroit (or Everett).
Thing is, they even haven't been the "big printers" . . .
http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/graph/?g=qDu
blue is US M2
red is Japan's, with a fixed FX at 220, a reasonable 'happy medium' in the 1973-1985 floating regime.
http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/graph/?g=qDv
is the yen converted to dollars at current FX, showing how the see-saw FX monkeys with Japan's M2 in dollar terms.
Most useful is just taking 1980 = 100 for both:
http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/graph/?g=qDw
Bennie, you've been a very naughty boy!
Troy,
On a per capita basis, the money printing might be closer to a dead heat.
Population: Japan / USA
That is an interesting question . . . what's going to happen to all the yen when there's only half the Japanese around to spend it . . .
Thinking about Japan makes my head hurt. They busted their asses 1950-1980 inventing and mfg the 20th century, and since 1980 used their stronger currency to assemble trillions of positive NIIP to live off of.
Yet, like us, they have to double taxes to return to a sustainable fiscal picture.
Norway is similarly successful but they too have been killed by a housing bubble.
http://www.norges-bank.no/pages/93708/Staff_memo_2013_05_eng.pdf
1960s: "One word: Plastics" (_The Graduate_)
1970s: "One word: Semiconductors"
1980s: "One word: Computers"
1990s: "One word: Internet"
2000s: "One word: Robotics"
2010s: "One word: Leverage."
Actually, I'm surprised Mark hasn't plotted the 70-year trend yet and extrapolated out to where we'll hit "zero" goods-producing jobs. I can see robots doing more and more of the production, but not all, and it seems that global outsourcing has largely run its course. So there has to be a trend failure at some point. It looks like the curve starts bending up in the 1990s, actually, and I suppose the trough could already be here? On the other hand, if the number of goods-producing jobs merely increases slower than the rate of service-jobs growth, the curve could trend down forever!
P.S. Rob, I agree with many of your sentiments regarding CalculatedRisk and Hoocoodanode. On HCN I see too much criticism and not enough critical thinking (of the more open-minded sort). On CR I see too much cheerleading and not enough critical inquiry. IMHO it will be very interesting to see who (other than those already bearish) pivots at the right time and gets credit for calling the next major market/economic top.
Sustainable Gains,
I see an exponential decay trend when looking at the data. That would mean it never reaches zero. That would also be consistent with your belief that robots won't replace all production jobs.
I have to believe that there will always be at least one person who continues to make handcrafted furniture. That said, one person can't exactly boost nonfarm payrolls. One is a fairly small number in the grand scheme of things. Sigh.
2020s: "One Word: @#$%"
Just a prediction, lol. Sigh.
Troy,
Thinking about Japan makes my head hurt.
Sometimes I sits and thinks, and sometimes I just sits.
I heard that many, many years ago. Works great for me. I need to do it more often, lol. Seriously. Insomnia is a curse. Sometimes I just can't stop thinking.
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