A Brick and Mortar 2014 4th Quarter Retail Sales Holiday Prediction

The following stacked chart shows real select brick and mortar 4th quarter retail sales per capita (categories with the strongest December seasonal adjustments).


Click to enlarge.

The following line chart shows a better view of the total.


Click to enlarge.

I have added an exponential decay trend in red using select points (an attempt to avoid the impacts of the housing bubble and bust).

So here's my Halloween prediction. Get out those vampire fangs, because it's going to suck to be a brick and mortar retailer relying on Christmas season joy. But what's new? Sigh.

Source Data:
St. Louis Fed: Retail Trade: Department Stores (Excluding Leased Departments)
St. Louis Fed: Retail Trade: Furniture and Home Furnishings Stores
St. Louis Fed: Retail Trade: Clothing and Clothing Accessory Stores
St. Louis Fed: Retail Trade: Electronics and Appliance Stores
St. Louis Fed: Retail Trade: Sporting Goods, Hobby, Book, and Music Stores
St. Louis Fed: Retail Trade: General Merchandise Stores
St. Louis Fed: Population
St. Louis Fed: CPI