Two

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At 5:00am I thought I'd practice Rocksmith's Scale Runner and call it a night. 5 hours and 15 minutes later I hobbled off to the couch and collapsed, lol.

I averaged 271.9 notes per scale on 11 scales (3 scales were 273 notes). Averaging 272.2 notes per scale would get the top score. A speed improvement of just 0.1% will get me there.

Rhetorical OCD question of the day...

How motivated am I to keep practicing? ;)

See Also:
Four
Five
Nine

Four

Click to enlarge.

My new personal best is 273 notes in a row in 100 seconds. I've done it twice in the last week. That speed was good enough to help inch my way up into 4th place. And when I say inch, I really mean it. As seen in the picture above, I'm just 1,200 points ahead of the person in 5th place (out of 161+ million). Whew!

I need to play roughly 0.5% faster overall (on 11 different scales) in order to get to #1. That definitely seems doable given enough practice and patience.



I've latched myself onto this mini-game like a honey badger would. Giving up is not an option! :)

See Also:
Five
Nine

"Secular Bull Market in Equities" (Musical Tribute)

I heard this quote on CNBC today and there was more head nodding than I could stomach. Apparently the financial "experts" have not yet heard that the 1980s and 1990s are actually over.

The following chart shows the S&P 500 index adjusted for inflation (March 2013 dollars).


Click to enlarge.

The next chart shows real wage and salary disbursements per capita (March 2013 dollars).


Click to enlarge.

Red exponential style trend lines in both charts were generated using an artistic license. Good enough for government work! In any event, both trends have failed spectacularly. I would argue that neither are in any condition to resume their former trends over the long-term. Put another way, I have absolutely no desire to invest in the stock market after it has cyclically doubled. Call me crazy if you must.

As a side note, real wages per capita tend to rise during economic recoveries as more people get put back to work. As seen in the chart above, I guess this recovery is special though. And when I say special, I actually mean FUBAR. If real wages per capita cannot rise during this expansion then what will they do during the next contraction? Don't answer. It's rhetorical. Sigh.

The 1980s and 1990s really are over. This is not a popular theory on CNBC. Perhaps it is because CNBC was launched on April 17, 1989. They may not know financial value but perhaps they do know sentimental value. I'm certainly teared up just thinking about the one hit wonders of the 1980s.

Here in my car
I feel safest of all
I can lock all my doors
It's the only way to live in cars

As seen in the following link, the future is now.

December 25, 2012
Program to help homeless living in cars off to slow, steady start

In the year since Seattle launched the Safe Parking pilot project for homeless people living in their cars, just two churches have opened their parking lots, providing a total of seven spaces. But the city is expanding the project and hopes to provide more services.

And lastly, The Market Ticker has an interesting take on what the S&P 500's dividend yield will get you over the long-term.

The S&P 500's dividend yield is down to 2.03%. May I also remind everyone that the only actual long-term value in common equity is in fact the dividend cash flow off that equity since all companies eventually cease to exist. Think I'm wrong? Where's RCA, a powerhouse that would never die? Uh huh. There are thousands more just like them.

That was certainly true where I once worked. Sierra Entertainment was founded in 1979. It was "aborted and shut down" in 2009. It only survived 30 years. I'm not sure why the word "aborted" was needed when "shut down" would seem to suffice. But then again, I left as a rat would leave a sinking ship in 1999. I can certainly empathize with the sentiment. Sigh.

See Also:
Sarcasm Disclaimer

Source Data:
St. Louis Fed: Custom Wage Chart
St. Louis Fed: Custom S&P 500 Chart

Exponential Trend Failure of the Day (Musical Tribute)

Click to enlarge.

So here's to the golden moon
Here's to the silver sea

Nov 6, 2007
Yahoo Message Board: Higher Lows & Higher Highs

I've concluded that the momentum behind the price movements of gold, silver, and SSRI is simply too strong to offer me another buying opportunity. At least I've got enough sense to continue to hold onto the shares that I now own. This current gold/silver bull market should provide each of us with a very profitable experience. It's a shame that more of my friends aren't participating in this once in a lifetime wealth accumulation opportunity. - seasonedspeculating

Oops.

Source Data:
Yahoo: SSRI Historical Prices

The "Free Lunch" Weight Loss Plan v.023

Click to enlarge.

I went 13 straight days at 211. I made an attempt to hold the line once 210 was breached. Some might argue that the seasonal peak is in. Others might argue that my girlfriend made a batch of brownies a few days ago though and they are all gone now. You'll see that damage in May's chart. Oops. :)


Click to enlarge.

I'm not at all worried about the long-term trend. That's all that really matters to me. I'm confident it is still down, especially if this is factored in. Further, hiking season is officially here. I intend to do some this weekend. The weather is predicted to be fantastic.

May 3, 2013
No school due to great weather: Seattle principal gives students rare ‘sun day’ off

“In a world that’s got a lot hard things going, its’ fun to create a moment joy,” Sampson said.

No joke.

See Also:
The "Free Lunch" Weight Loss Plan v.000

40:57

December 31, 2012
The "Free Lunch" Weight Loss Plan v.019

On the 5th of December, I set what I think is a new all-time personal best of 44 minutes and 57 seconds to climb 200 flights of stairs.

The stars aligned. I got a good night's sleep (which is rare since I am an insomniac most nights). The sun was out. I mowed the backyard and weeded the front yard to some degree. I was therefore in good spirits. I worked out to the second episode of the first season of Alias. It was apparently motivating enough to knock exactly 4 minutes off my best time. It took me just 40 minutes and 57 seconds to climb 200 flights today.

It is not a coincidence that the time ended in 57 seconds again. Call it a 3 second safety buffer. I started off at a 50 feet per minute pace. At first I thought I could get down under 45 minutes (with the intent of slowing down at some point). That's how long the episode was (no commercials, Comcast On Demand). 44 minutes started looking doable. I then started shooting for 43 minutes. Hope rose that I could do it under 42 minutes. And lastly, I really pushed near the end to make it just under 41 minutes. My pace varied from 47 feet per minute to 53 feet per minute (the final push at the end). I averaged 48.8 feet per minute.

Under 40 minutes was right out. First, I weigh about 6 pounds more than the last time I made a serious attempt. Second, I was alone in the house (my girlfriend had errands to run). Third, there is no phone in the room with the stair climber (to call an ambulance in theory, lol). Fourth, I don't have health insurance at the moment.

I managed to give myself a temporary dehydration headache. I drank a 12 ounce glass of Gatorade before I started. I drank another 12 ounces as I was climbing. I followed it up with yet another 12 ounces after I was done. That was definitely not enough liquids. Once I realized that I was on a record pace, I didn't want to stop to get more fluids though.



I felt like Ted Stryker attempting to land a plane. Let's just say that I don't think I'll ever get over Macho Grande. ;)

Niesen

Alongside the path of the Niesenbahn is the longest stairway in the world with 11,674 steps. It is open only once a year to the public for a stair run.

Holy mother of...

Spring has finally sprung. It hasn't shown up in my weight yet, but I've been exercising a lot more over the past week. The day before yesterday I watched the first episode of the first season of Alias while working out (at a much slower pace). There are a LOT more episodes to go! It is very likely that I'll be climbing well more than the minimum 20 flights per day in the coming months. Once again, 20 flights remains my minimum though. It keeps me in the game and allows me to climb as many as I like whenever I like. Over the past few months, I've only been doing the minimum. It was clearly enough exercise if today is any indicator.

There was very little pain (other than the slight dehydration headache which was entirely preventable). My legs are not sore right now. The limiting factor was my cardiovascular system. It was the air I could breathe in and how fast my heart was beating that mostly decided my speed. I'm definitely not a believer in the no pain, no gain theories, especially when it comes to exercise. All it takes is modest and consistent exercise each and every day to make a huge impact overall. Baby steps! 20 flights a day seemed like a chore when I started. Now they seem trivial. It takes just 4 minutes now (or 5 minutes if I'm feeling especially lazy).

Give it a try. You might like it. Walk up the street once a day. Climb some stairs. Just do something that you think you can do each and every day for the rest of your life, even if it seems trivial. You will not regret it. I sure haven't. Anything is better than nothing.

The Perfect Store(m)

The following chart shows inflation adjusted department store sales per capita.


Click to enlarge.

I've added a few ugly polynomial trend lines for your consideration. For a variety of reasons, here we go again.

Since the data was so ugly, I chose not to wait for March's official CPI but instead used Briefing.com's estimate of -0.1% found here. Close enough for government work!

This one's going to need a sound effect. Normally I'd jump at the opportunity to reuse a clown horn. MaxedOutMama once suggested a foghorn (see comments). I just don't think either of them will do the chart justice this time. It needs something that conveys even less prosperity and even more despair.



April 13, 2013
In the end, J.C. Penney’s board moved quickly with CEO move

A strong believer in Johnson’s vision, retail analyst Robin Lewis, said Thursday that his 17-month reign was “the most colossal, dramatic, tragic, transparent, rapid and microscopically tracked meltdown in the history of retailing.”

That about sums up Penney’s 111th year in business.

Here comes some bonus sarcasm. Brace for it.

The new CEO will no doubt do much better. All he has to do is navigate the near depression level economy while simultaneously fending off the rise of Amazon.com, Costco, and Sam's Club. How hard can that be?

Source Data:
U.S. Census: Retail Trade
St. Louis Fed: CPI
St. Louis Fed: Population

Exponential Trend Failure of the Day

Click to enlarge.

First it Giveth

"First it giveth, then it taketh away."

Hell hath no fury like a momentum investor scorned. And one thing is fairly clear, those who bought gold at the recent peak in 2011 are seriously scorned at this point. At the very least, gold is generating fewer prophets. Pun intended.

On the one hand, I would not rule out a return to the red trend line. The odds seem very low, but anything can happen. You certainly won't see me short gold. Let's just say that I will make no attempt to profit off of its potential demise. "Not my style." (That last quote is an ongoing inside joke. See the comments found here. As of today, SHLD is down 44% since MAB and I were heckled in 2008 for heckling Sears. Sears is the gift that just keeps on giving.)

On the other hand, you won't see me bet on a return to that long-term trend either. I think gold is still extremely expensive relative to toilet paper and aluminum. I have no desire to own gold or silver again at anywhere near these prices. There's ample downside risk left in both of them in the coming years. I've charted many serious exponential trend failures on this blog over the years and very few of them, if any, have actually unfailed. Not all have crashed though, so keep that in mind. For example, the recurring employment exponential failure hasn't crashed so much as stagnated. Gold could do the same or even better. Who knows?

As a side note, the modern miracle metal known as aluminum is considerably cheaper than it was 5 years ago. That has to be adding at least some extra downside pressure to the price of gold. I once again ask, where are the aluminum speculators? Perhaps aluminum is shiny but not all that sexy? Aluminum also pokes a sizable hole in the seemingly never-ending impending hyperinflation theories that some sites love to offer (especially to paid subscribers).

I'm not trying to suggest that we can't hyperinflate. We can and eventually probably will. Eventually could be a very, very long time though. I'm not at all convinced that we will do it in my lifetime. I am factoring in my 48 years of age. Your results may vary (especially if considerably younger). If the economy gets bad enough, then I might have to take on more risk to lower my longevity. You know, like mountain climbing while wearing nothing but a swimsuit. But one way or another, I intend to have my nest egg last the rest of my life! Gallows humor! ;)

The financial policy of the welfare state requires that there be no way for the owners of wealth to protect themselves. - Alan Greenspan, 1966

I absolutely believe that. Pick your poison. I continue to sit in long-term TIPS (with intent to hold to maturity), long-term I-Bonds, long-term EE-Bonds, and short-term cash. I'm not expecting miracles. If I am financially ruined (possible), then I won't be ruined alone. There will be many, many others joining me. With rates this low, one might even say that I am slowly being financially ruined (and new investors definitely are). It is manageable though. Fortunately, I locked in rates when Jeremy Siegel warned me to stay away. I refer to him now as Wrong Way Siegel, partly in reference to Wrongway Feldman of Gilligan's Island fame. Why would anyone listen to his interest rate theories at this point? Year after year, just how much more wrong could he be?

If by some chance real yields do rise significantly, then I predict his precious stock market ("Stocks for the Long Run") will get seriously kicked in the you know what again. He won't see that coming either. As seen in the this chart, real yields last rose significantly during the deflationary great recession. Even buried cash had a positive real yield as prices fell. That's why TIPS yields rose. It wasn't because the magical economy fairy cast a wondrous spell and prosperity had been fully restored. The 1980s and 1990s are over. Those rules no longer apply.

This is not investment advice. It is filled with opinions though. Opinions and 50 cents would get you a cup of coffee. Not now of course. There has been some inflation over the years. In recent days, not so much.

So what's behind the drastic price cut?

"The firm could be betting on widening income inequality," Stock said.

What does Starbucks know that we don't do? Sigh.

Source Data:
Yahoo Finance: Historical GLD Prices