Almost Back to Abby Normal

The following chart shows personal consumption of goods over services.

I can't speak for others, but I started buying a lot more stuff when the pandemic hit. Stuck at home, not much else to do. Some of that is seen in the chart and was directly responsible for the higher inflation rate in goods. Currently trying to wean myself off of this new temporary behavior.

There's something else going on too though, as seen in the upward slope of the red trend line channel. Here's one theory.

January 22, 2024
Study shows how social media fuels unhappiness and materialism

Clothes, cars, travel, followers: People with a materialistic mindset always want more and, above all, more than others. Social media provides them with ideal opportunities to compare themselves with others, which makes them susceptible to passive and addictive user behavior. This stresses them out and, ultimately, leads to low life satisfaction. This downward spiral, which turns materialists into less happy people, was identified by researchers from Bochum in an online survey of over 1,200 participants. They published their findings in the journal Telematics and Informatics Reports from January, 8, 2024.

Unemployment Level

The following chart shows the natural log of the unemployment level. When using natural logs, constant exponential growth is seen as a straight line. I have added two sets of trend lines to the chart. The lines in red represent the old trend. The lines in blue represent a possible new trend.

Will unemployment growth return to the more manageable red channel? Or will it continue within the much more concerning blue channel? Or neither?

Be careful out there. Might not be the safest time in all of recorded history to swing for the fences.

Not investment advice.

Elon Musk’s Idea of Work

Link

While working, surf the Internet and post your thoughts! Be the productivity change you want to see in the world!

100% Trust in Financial Institutions

These 5-star reviews for a major online mobile banking app can't be wrong!

I'd say which Apple app it is, but since all 3 of the mobile online banking apps I use have similarly stellar reviews, it seems fairly obvious that we can trust them all. Yes, sir. The days of unethical behavior, deceiving practices, and outright fraud are all clearly behind us!

The illusion of prosperity is dead! Long live the illusion of prosperity!!

Stay Hydrated

The choices are:

1. Drink plenty of water.
2. Take an ambulance to the emergency room and learn first hand how painful a kidney stone can be.

I chose poorly. May you learn from my mistake.

The good news is that the 4.5mm kidney stone that was causing me so much pain passed within 10 hours of the first symptoms, the pain medication given in the ER was quite effective, and the stone was smooth so once it exited my kidney, the pain was gone. No jagged spikes, thankfully. Not everyone is so fortunate.

The bad news is that the other kidney has 3 similar ticking time bombs and one of them is 6mm. Yikes!

Why an ambulance you might ask? Seemed warranted given the extreme pain and the fact that I was throwing up like a machine gun. 2 bursts of 4! And with such force that my ribs hurt when laughing or coughing for 4 full days thereafter.

Wage Inflation Pressure

The following chart shows the natural log of U.S. wage and salary disbursements. When using natural logs, constant exponential growth is seen as a straight line.

The Fed does not need to deflate wages back into the long-term channel in green, but rather to return to the slope of that channel. What's done is done. Deflation to undo the high inflation is definitely not the goal.

Some progress is being made. We've noved from the steep slope of the red line to the more moderate slope of the yellow line.

I'm convinced that they can achieve their goal, one way or another. But at what cost? I can be a bit cynical, but there's a high risk here that we're still in the early stages of a no-win situation.

How high will the unemployment rate need to rise to get us back to the healthier wage inflation trend? I have no idea, but I can say with 100% certainty that 100% unemployment would do it. Can't have any wage and salary disbursements if nobody is working.

The bulk of my net worth sits in inflation-protected I-Bonds and TIPS. As of about a year ago, my IRA sits entirely in bonds without inflation protection (TLT). And here's where I sit until I see a reason to take on more risk. Near record unemployment expected to rise, falling house prices, and high interest rates are not things that make me excited about taking on riskier investments.

Not investment advice.

The Sarcasm Report v.291

February 8, 2023
lifehacker: The Biggest Mistakes People Make When Trying to Eat Healthy

Eating enough to stay healthy is important, and eating enough protein is a big part of that.

And if you continue to scroll down after reading that article...

February 10, 2023
lifehacker: Get Free Wendy's Jr. Bacon Cheeseburgers Until Sunday

You can only get one per visit, but you can visit as many times as your stomach desires.

Bacon, cheese, and beef sure are great protein sources! Visit as many times as your stomach desires! You know, for your health! Woohoo! ;)

Converting Paper Savings Bonds

Dear Customer,

This is a system generated email to communicate we received your Savings Bonds/Treasury Marketable Securities materials.

Cases are worked in the order they are received in our office. Your request is important to us and will receive attention as soon as possible. Please allow up to 13 weeks for review and processing. If we require additional information, we will contact you. Thank you for your patience.

Up to 13 weeks? Ouch. The wheels on the governmental bureaucratic bus go round and round, round and round, round and round.