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2nd UPDATE:Kroger 2Q Net Falls 7.9%, Cuts Forecast; Shrs Dn
The grocer also saw deflation spread to "most grocery categories" for the first time in several quarters. Consumer products companies, facing declining tonnage, are lowering prices and putting more money into promotions.
I'm seeing some of this in the grocery store flyers.
For example, last week I bought a case (24 cans) of Campbell's Tomato Soup for just 50 cents each at Albertsons. This week, I'm seeing that same deal show up at both Albertsons and QFC (Kroger).
Here's the interesting part. The sale at Albertsons wasn't just offering it at 50 cents a can. They also showed you the price for a full case right in the flyer. I can't remember ever seeing that before. Just how much tomato and chicken noodle soup is out there?
This week QFC (Kroger) will be earning my Jello business. At 75 cents for a 6oz package, I'll be buying quite a bit of it. I'll be combining some of the Jello I already have with their 59 cent per pound bananas. Probably wash some of it down with their $1.99 per gallon milk.
You know what? It's hard to be a hyperinflationist right now (not that I ever really was). The richest people of the world better back up the truck on oil (again!) or I'm going to feel rather silly altering my short-term inflationary mood to positive.
If we can't even inflate the price of canned soup at a time when many people have lost their jobs, then we've got little chance digging our way out of the deflation in discretionary items and housing.
I don't mind being wrong about my inflationary mood though. As a saver, I'm never going to actually root for more inflation. I'm just not so sure the stock market is pricing in even more deflation. Meredith Whitney's recent prediction that housing prices will drop 25% from here fell mostly on deaf ears.
Real Estate Newsletter Articles this Week: Existing-Home Sales Increased to
4.15 million SAAR in November
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At the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter this week:
[image: Existing Home Sales]*Click on graph for larger image.*
• NAR: Existing-Home Sales Increase...
12 hours ago
4 comments:
Mark,
from the previous thread, I too really appreciate your efforts. I stop here every day, even when you are not posting, beacuse I think the content is very value added for me.
As for tonights post, as a recent buyer of Campbells (CPB for flu season, lots of warm meals at home) they are saying they are seeing pricing pressures at this time. I think your long term inflation vias can still be right, all we need is a dollar devaluation and presto! inflation achieved! Jesse's Cafe goes over some possibilities:
http://tinyurl.com/rdoz8l
Great blog.
GYSC,
I very much enjoy interacting with the people that read my blog and I didn't mean to imply that I feel unappreciated. I don't!
It was just a monumental task to do those charts and I questioned my sanity while doing them. I'm basically a lazy person, lol.
Further, your recent Campbell interest is what actually prompted me to post my thoughts on the soup purchase. I thought you'd get a kick out of me buying a case.
I wish I could say I was loyal to your investment, but I also buy soup from General Mills. Here's a link from 2008 and apparently I'm fighting on the front lines.
Progresso’s, Campbell's soup war reaches boiling point
http://twincities.bizjournals.com/twincities/stories/2008/11/10/daily43.html
Here's something you will enjoy hearing though.
I eat Progresso Soup on the days when I'm feeling good about the economy. It tastes better.
I eat condensed Campbell's Soup on the days when I'm not feeling so good about the economy. It's cheaper.
Either way, I add a lot of cheap crackers though. I guess that means I'm not ever feeling all that good about the economy.
Dang it!
I missed the cracker angle!
I like Chunky soup myself, which is a Campbells product. I am way long SPAM as well.
I understand about the charts, I can actually make some myself, but it eats up so much time I would not be able to post much.
You THINK you understand about the charts. These charts are not typical. Try copying each and every month's data point individually from a text file into a spreadsheet someday. (I'm such a whiner, lol.)
Why oh why did they put the output in a table so that I couldn't easily import it like I do with most of the charts I make. (Maybe they did give me the option to do that and I just don't know how to do it though.)
I will say this, the output from the seasonal asjustment program is stunning.
My 2k text input files (one each for inbound and outbound traffic) generated 90k text output files. They really hit you with information overload, which is actually kind of cool.
"I missed the cracker angle!"
A can of Campbell's condensed chicken noodle soup has about 150 calories in it and can currently be purchased for 50 cents on sale, that's $5 for 1500 calories. It's kind of expensive even when it seems cheap. That's actually getting up in the "steak" on sale range.
That's where the miracle of crackers comes in though!
Crackers bought at Costco will give you the same calories at just 1/4th of that cost.
Of course, neither the soup nor the crackers have all that much nutrition in them. If that is the goal, then what should we really do?
Ramen, it's what's for dinner. 380 whopping calories of it.
http://www.ramenlicious.com/encyclopedia/calories-ramen-noodles.html
"In conclusion, as long as you don't eat 5 packages of noodles every day, we can say with confidence that ramen noodles can be part of an healthy diet."
There's nothing quite like a dose of CONfidence.
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