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On a seasonally adjusted basis, inbound container traffic clearly put in a bottom in February of 2009 (at roughly the same time the stock market did). What the future holds is anyone's guess. My personal guess is that we have a snowball's chance in hell of getting back to that unsustainable exponential red trend line though.
On a seasonally adjusted basis, outbound container traffic put in a bottom in December of 2008. We are now back on the exponential trend line.
Does total port traffic try to get back to the "normal" growth story or does it flounder in a sea of stagnation? Only time will tell. You can pretty much guess what I think, based on what I named my blog (and myself) in August of 2007 (while we were still firmly on that red exponential trend line).
See Also:
Trend Line Disclaimer
Source Data:
Port of Long Beach: Statistics
Port of Los Angeles: Statistics
The X-12-ARIMA Seasonal Adjustment Program
5 comments:
One more thought. I said that it is my personal guess that we have a snowball's chance in hell of getting back to that unsustainable exponential red trend line though.
Actually that's not quite what I meant to say. I have no doubt that we can bend that red trend line down to meet us. You can already see it being pulled down off of the data that run from 1995 to 2007. Over time, I'm confident we can yank it all the way down.
What I meant to say is that I do not think we can get back to where that red trend line currently is.
Nice work, Mark. Appreciate the seasonal adjustments; it will be interesting to watch both volume and dollar amounts over the next 6 months (pre- and post-holidays).
threetorches,
It gets harder and harder to build up the motivation to do those charts, lol.
Unlike the other charts I do, I have to actually copy each and every data point of the text output from the seasonal adjustment program and paste it into my spreadsheet (the output data is in a table format to make it easy to read). Between the two series, that's over 300 data points now (and growing). One problem is that I can't even keep the past results. Additional data changes the seasonal adjustments for all of the data.
Therefore, I very much appreciate that you appreciate it. It's nice to know someone finds it useful and that it wasn't just a monumental waste of my time.
Stag,
It's nice to know someone finds it useful and that it wasn't just a monumental waste of my time.
I think inflation has made saving a monumental waste of time in the eyes of many. I also think inflation played a big part in our three decade long monumental debt expansion too. Similar to your luxury house/car theory.
Currently, paying taxes to bailout a fraudulent financial system make productive work a monumental waste of time. It's become abundantly clear to the majority now that financial tomfoolery pays in a BIG way. If Bernanke can add inflation to the mix, it very well could create a fertile environment for households to say "screw it" and start adding debt again. That is, if the banks will still lend to them.
You really get sense of the relative importance of things when you ignore the rhetoric and look at the actions taken.
Job creation, health care, tax cuts/raises, balancing the budget, energy security, affordable housing, etc. are all sideshows. Restarting the credit (DEBT!) machine is job one. Creating inflation is job two. We did job one without any serious debate or thought. Efforts to accomplish job two will have even less debate, thought and oversight. I'm certain of it.
mab,
"Job creation, health care, tax cuts/raises, balancing the budget, energy security, affordable housing, etc. are all sideshows."
I cringed at job creation as my girlfriend's still unemployed.
I pulled a nail on health care as I cannot get private health insurance. I tried to appeal, but although I have no health conditions requiring treatment or medications, I'm apparently STILL too much of a health risk for them. They continue to stick to the story that my very minor eye problem was WORSE than bone cancer (based on their point system). I contacted the nurse at my doctor's office and they even sent me a letter saying just how minor it was. I submitted it with my appeal. In fact, the nurse joked that it wasn't like I had cancer. I replied, "They actually claim it is worse than bone cancer or skin cancer." She laughed and then realized I was serious. Then we both laughed.
I threw up my "free" lunch on your tax cuts/raises comment as I just know that someday we're going to actually have to pay for all of this.
I sprayed juice out of my nose as you mentioned balancing the budget. Don't ask me why. I guess I just found it funny.
I sprayed juice of my ears on your energy security comment while belly laughing on the floor. Maybe what we need is a Patriot Missile Act. Combining the best of the Iraq War with the very best of Homeland Security. Hahaha!
I then thought about affordable housing. Nothing makes housing more affordable than trying to make house prices more expensive. That's the math I grew up trying to understand.
Now you tell me it is all just a sideshow? I can't wait for the main event. This circus is going to be the "Greatest Depression Show on Earth!"
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