I live in the USA and I am concerned about the future. I created this blog to share my thoughts on the economy and anything else that might catch my attention.
Schedule for Week of April 13, 2025
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The key reports this week are March Retail Sales and Housing Starts.
For manufacturing, the March Industrial Production report, and NY and
Philly Fed surve...
Another look a NVDA
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I've looked at NVDA a couple times, in *August 2023 *and *January 2024*.
On Saturday 8/26/23 I said the action in NVDA stock looked like it was
topping....
Quantifying Trickle Down in Real Average Earnings
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I studied a handful of economic measures to see their affect on Real
Average Earnings. I used the following series from the St. Louis Fed FRED
system:
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The following chart shows the 12-month moving average of annualized production and nonsupervisory death care services employee minutes worked per capita.
Its pretty clear what happened here - there was a medical breakthrough in 2004 that allowed people to live longer - at least 10 years longer, maybe more. Eventually, of course, we'll go back to the old normal.
There has been a shift to cremation rather than burial. Less work and less expense; less going to the funeral parlors leaves more for the survivors. Folks whose standards of living are going down aren't going to be investing more in the art of dying expensively. (Trend might also get a boost from national decline in religiosity as well?)
Data below from Cremation Association of America:
United States Data Year Number of cremations % of all deaths 1985 289,081 14.9% 1995 488,224 19.2 1998 553,000 24.1 1999 598,721 25.0 2000 625,399 26.2 2003 722,535 29.5 2004 741,598 30.9 2005 784,764 32.3 2006 815,369 33.5 2007 832,340 34.3 2015 projected figure 46.0 2025 projected figure 58.8
P.S. Funeral Homes are still a growth business, given the demographic shifts going on...
My dad was cremated over a decade ago. He was religious but he was also practical. I would agree that we've probably seen the peak art of dying expensively.
For what it is worth, I have even less desire to be buried after my death. I am not a religious person. I believe that when I am dead, I'm dead. I do not expect to be desiring anything at that point.
7 comments:
Its pretty clear what happened here - there was a medical breakthrough in 2004 that allowed people to live longer - at least 10 years longer, maybe more. Eventually, of course, we'll go back to the old normal.
Fred
Ben Bernanke's Dawn of the Fed
When there's no more use for credit, the Fed will walk the Earth.
Fred,
a medical breakthrough in 2004 that allowed people to live longer
My theory involves humans turning into bears. 2004 is when I became one (permabear).
We bears don't need no stinkin' death care services! Raaaaarrrrrr! ;)
Ship me off to Alaska instead and point me towards streams overflowing with salmon! Yes! Prosperity!
Mr Slippery,
When there's no more use for credit, the Fed will walk the Earth.
We live in the era of no brainers (sure things)! Makes it hard for the zombie banks to feed, lol. Sigh.
As a side note, I've been out ot town. Posting activity should resume soon.
There has been a shift to cremation rather than burial. Less work and less expense; less going to the funeral parlors leaves more for the survivors. Folks whose standards of living are going down aren't going to be investing more in the art of dying expensively. (Trend might also get a boost from national decline in religiosity as well?)
Data below from Cremation Association of America:
United States Data
Year Number of cremations % of all deaths
1985 289,081 14.9%
1995 488,224 19.2
1998 553,000 24.1
1999 598,721 25.0
2000 625,399 26.2
2003 722,535 29.5
2004 741,598 30.9
2005 784,764 32.3
2006 815,369 33.5
2007 832,340 34.3
2015 projected figure 46.0
2025 projected figure 58.8
P.S. Funeral Homes are still a growth business, given the demographic shifts going on...
Sustainable Gains,
My dad was cremated over a decade ago. He was religious but he was also practical. I would agree that we've probably seen the peak art of dying expensively.
For what it is worth, I have even less desire to be buried after my death. I am not a religious person. I believe that when I am dead, I'm dead. I do not expect to be desiring anything at that point.
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