I live in the USA and I am concerned about the future. I created this blog to share my thoughts on the economy and anything else that might catch my attention.
AAR: Rail Carloads and Intermodal Up in March
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From the Association of American Railroads (AAR) AAR Data Center. *Graph
and excerpts reprinted with permission*.
Recent changes in U.S. trade policy repr...
Another look a NVDA
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I've looked at NVDA a couple times, in *August 2023 *and *January 2024*.
On Saturday 8/26/23 I said the action in NVDA stock looked like it was
topping....
Quantifying Trickle Down in Real Average Earnings
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I studied a handful of economic measures to see their affect on Real
Average Earnings. I used the following series from the St. Louis Fed FRED
system:
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My fear, fwiw, is $40T is an unsolvable problem. All the poles are on the left-hand of the plane to borrow a really old engineering joke. So we're faced with deflation or hyperinflation, there is no in between. Conventional wisdom is that deflation can't happen. The Fed/TPTB won't allow it.
However, I've never seen everyone make the same bet and have it pay-out. There's no one left to pay it, which is back to the export solution. Export, to whom?
3 comments:
QE -> more competitive dollar -> more exports (yeay!)
more exports -> less output to consume domestically -> more inflation (yeay!)
Deflation with $40T of debt is the road to default.
http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/graph/?g=sHf
shf indeed!
Export to whom?
My fear, fwiw, is $40T is an unsolvable problem. All the poles are on the left-hand of the plane to borrow a really old engineering joke. So we're faced with deflation or hyperinflation, there is no in between. Conventional wisdom is that deflation can't happen. The Fed/TPTB won't allow it.
However, I've never seen everyone make the same bet and have it pay-out. There's no one left to pay it, which is back to the export solution. Export, to whom?
AllanF (& Troy),
Export, to whom?
To all the other countries desperate to export to us of course!
Ba dum tssshhh
Sigh.
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